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The Reds went into the year with plenty of optimism. Their young core had surprisingly threatened for a playoff berth and finished above .500 in 2023. The front office followed up by committing more than $100MM — including nearly $62MM in 2024 salaries alone — on the free agent market. Cincinnati was a trendy choice to take what looked like a wide open NL Central (and would’ve been my pick to win the division before a couple key Spring Training injuries).

While it’s too soon to write them off entirely, the Reds haven’t come close to the heightened expectations through the season’s first two months. They’re eight games below .500 and above only the Marlins and Rockies in the National League. A lineup loaded with talented young hitters should drive this team to success. Thanks to a combination of injury and a handful of key players underperforming, they’ve instead had one of the worst offenses in the majors.

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Entering play Wednesday, Cincinnati ranks 21st in runs scored. That’s alarming enough for a team that plays in one of the game’s most favorable hitter’s parks. Their rate production is even worse. The Reds are last in team batting average (.216). They’re above only the White Sox and Marlins in on-base percentage (.294). They’re also narrowly ahead of the Nationals and Pirates in terms of slugging output (.354).

On a per plate appearance basis, the Reds are hitting like a rebuilding team. They’ve at least been reasonably productive when they’ve gotten runners in scoring position, so their overall scoring output isn’t a disaster, but this team has a lot more offensive talent than any of Chicago, Miami, Washington and Pittsburgh do.

The problems are particularly striking when looking around the infield. There has long been trade speculation about the Reds’ infield surplus. The front office never seemed to treat it as such. Not only did they not trade away any infielders, they doubled down by signing Jeimer Candelario to a three-year deal.

The infield should be a strength. They’re hitting .216/.290/.348, better production only than the White Sox and Red Sox have received. That’s in spite of a breakout from second-year star Elly De La Cruz at shortstop. Between first, second and third base, no team has gotten less than the Reds’ .200/.268/.298 slash over 581 plate appearances.

Some of that is beyond Cincinnati’s control. Matt McLain was one of the biggest reasons for optimism after his .290/.357/.507 showing as a rookie. He went down with a labrum tear in his left shoulder during Spring Training and required surgery that’s likely to keep him out into August. Noelvi Marte was the presumptive starter at third base entering camp. He tested positive for a performance-enhancing substance and was suspended for half the season. Any team would suffer from losing two of its most talented infielders weeks before Opening Day.

Still, the Reds should’ve been relatively well-positioned to weather those losses. Candelario was a productive everyday third baseman a year ago. Jonathan India hasn’t become the player some expected after his 2021 Rookie of the Year win, but he’s a solid fill-in option for a team that lost its starting second baseman. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, pushed into the everyday first base role with Candelario moving across the diamond, turned in a .270/.338/.477 slash as a rookie.

An infield of Encarnacion-Strand, India, De La Cruz and Candelario still looked reasonable. Cincinnati acquired Santiago Espinal as a glove-first utility piece after losing McLain and Marte. Yet they’ve gotten essentially nothing out of anyone in that group beyond De La Cruz.

Encarnacion-Strand was one of the worst hitters in MLB (.190/.220/.293 in 123 plate appearances) before being diagnosed with a fracture in his right hand that’ll keep him out into the middle of June. India (.216/.328/.291) has the worst numbers of his career. Candelario (.216/.284/.379) is hitting at the level that got him non-tendered in 2022 as opposed to the well above-average clip he showed in the other three of the past four seasons. Espinal was never going to provide much offensively, but his .194/.248/.278 line is essentially unplayable. The Reds signed first baseman Mike Ford to a major league deal after losing Encarnacion-Strand to the injured list. He’s off to a .146/.163/.250 start in 13 games after a huge month in Triple-A.

It’s a similar story in the outfield, though that always felt a little more tenuous. Cincinnati has lost underrated center fielder TJ Friedl to a pair of injuries, limiting him to six games. The fill-in center field tandem of Will Benson and Stuart Fairchild has essentially played at replacement level.

Left fielder Spencer Steer has turned in average numbers, nowhere near as productive as he was in 2023. Jake Fraley is a fine but unexciting option in right field. The Reds probably should’ve brought in a rotational right-handed outfield bat over the offseason, but that’s a fairly minor issue compared to the underperformances of almost everyone in the lineup. De La Cruz and catcher Tyler Stephenson are the only sources of consistent offense.

That’s setting up deadline decisions for GM Nick Krall and his staff. There are reasons for the front office to believe the team can compete for a playoff spot. At least one Wild Card spot in the National League looks like it’ll fall to a team that’s marginally better than .500. Marte will be back for the second half (though he’d be ineligible for the postseason because of the failed PED test). It’s difficult to count on McLain hitting at last year’s level coming off shoulder surgery, but it’s not out of the question that he provides a significant boost in the final six weeks of the season.

The starting pitching has been solid. Cincinnati’s relief group remains a concern, but that’s one of the easier areas to address at the deadline. There’s still a path to buying. They could use a corner outfield/first base pickup — Brent Rooker looks like a strong fit, as one example — and should probably upgrade over Espinal on the bench.

There’s not a ton to sell off if things go in the opposite direction. They’re certainly not going to blow it up and dangle key young players like McLain, Steer, Nick Lodolo, etc. There’d probably be renewed speculation about trying to move India, who will make $5MM in 2025. Frankie Montas would very likely go as an impending free agent starter. They’d get calls on Stephenson, but he’s controllable via arbitration for two seasons beyond this one.

Cincinnati should take that buyer/seller decision right up to the deadline. They’re not going to move notable players in May, as the Marlins did a couple weeks ago. If they don’t stop hitting like the Marlins soon, they’re not going to have much of a choice come July.