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Understanding NBA Picks and Betting Lines

Our premium NBA picks are updated daily. There are three basic ways to bet on the NBA: the point spread, the moneyline, and the Total (also known as the Over/Under). Furthermore, Oddsmakers release a “point spread”, “moneyline”, and “total” for nearly every NBA game.

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NBA Picks: The Point Spread

The point spread is the number of points oddsmakers think the favored team should win by. You have the choice to choose the favorite and give up points or take the underdog and get points. The odds for placing a bet against the spread is usually -110, which means the bettor must risk $110 to win $100.

For example, in Game 6 of the 2021-22 NBA finals, the Boston Celtics were favored by 3.5 points at home against the Golden State Warriors. Subsequently, the Warriors won the game, 103-90. That means betting the Warriors as an underdog was the winning beat, as they “covered the spread”, winning the game outright.

NBA Picks: The Moneyline

Nearly every NBA game will have a “moneyline”. The moneyline for a game represents how Vegas views how the game will end, which team will win and lose. Moneyline bets offer higher risk with lower return on favorites, and lower risks with higher returns on underdogs.

Moneyline bets are useful, especially for parlay bets, because you do not have to worry about how much a team wins by, only if they win or lose. In short, it costs more to bet the moneyline on favorites straight up if you are trying to make $100. Therefore, betting on underdogs has the potential for a larger payoff.

For example, in Game 6 of the 2021-22 NBA finals, the Boston Celtics played the Golden State Warriors. In this instance, the Celtics were favored at -170 to win the game outright. So that means the bettor would have had to wager $170 to win $100. Therefore, the Warriors were the underdog and +145 to win, which means the bettor would win $145 on a $100.. The Warriors won.

NBA Picks: The Total (Over/Under)

Nearly every NBA game will have a “total”. The total, also known as the over/under, represents how many combined points the oddsmakers think will be scored in a game by both teams. Generally, the odds for total bets are -110, which means the bettor would have to wager $110 to win $100.

For example, in Game 6 of the 2021-22 NBA finals, the Boston Celtics played the Golden State Warriors, and the total was 210.5 points. The bettor had to decide whether they thought the score would be under or over 210.5 points. Hence the term “over/under”. In this instance, the game ended 103-90, for a total of 193 points, which was UNDER the total.

NBA Picks: Prop Bets

Many bookmakers offer proposition bets, or “prop bets” for short, which gives the bettor an opportunity to wager on specific aspects of the games other than the spread, moneyline and total. Therefore each week Vegas releases prop bet odds for most of the big national games.

For instance, there are prop bets for how many points an offensive player might have, how many assists individual players will have, or even things like which team will win the tip-off.

For the most part, prop bets are listed like Over/Under totals or yes/no questions, such as “Will Player X score for Over/Under 20 points”, or “Will Player Z have OVER/UNDER 8 assists?”

NBA Picks: Parlay Wagers

The Oxford Dictionary defines “parlay” as “a cumulative series of bets in which winnings accruing from each transaction are used as a stake for a further bet.”

In other words, a parlay wager is betting and on 2 or more game outcomes on the same ticket. Each addition team added to the parlay makes the payout increase. To win a parlay bet, all the picks must win.

In short, the odds are heavily against the bettor on parlay bets on two fronts, true odds and the odds paid. For example, the true odds of hitting a 10-team parlay are 1023-1, but the odds paid at most sportsbooks are 720-1.

Many bettors use parlay bets to stack moneyline bets for games they feel most strongly about. If the bettor picks an underdog on the moneyline, the expected payout can increase dramatically. Consequently, the bettor’s chance of losing the bet also increases.

NBA Picks: Betting on the Future

One wagering option, known as Futures, allows the bettor to bet on a long-running result instead of betting a single-game outcome. There are several preseason futures bets available before the NBA season begins. In addition, there are some futures bets that run during the season, with the odds changing week by week.

Before the season begins, a bettor has the option to place future wagers on win/loss records, conference champs, offensive player of the year, defensive player of the year, even the NBA champ!

For example, in 2021 a $100 futures wager on the Golden State Warriors to win the NBA championsihp would have netted the bettor $1,100.

The first thing to remember is that there are many factors to consider when deciding which teams to wager on. Specifically, bettors should consider injuries, weather, trends, rivalry games, etc. Many NBA games are broadcasted on TNT and ESPN. Although there are many ways to wager, just make sure you have the right information about the games you are betting on.

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