The Yankees have “checked in” on free agent right-hander Michael Lorenzen, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The righty’s market may be heating up with just two weeks to go until Opening Day, as he was also connected to the White Sox yesterday.
The Yankees were already in the market for starting pitching, having been connected to Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery throughout the winter. Their need for rotation help only grew this week when ace Gerrit Cole was sidelined by an elbow issue. Cole and the Yankees are still gathering information but it seems like he will miss a month or two of the season even in a best-case scenario.
Whether Cole is ultimately destined for a brief or a lengthy absence, it’s a huge blow to the club’s rotation. Up until this issue popped up, he was the rocksteady leader of an otherwise shaky group. Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman all battled injuries last year to varying extents.
Stroman was having a great year prior to his injury woes, as he had a 2.96 ERA at the All-Star break, but hip and rib cartilage injuries led to diminished results and missed time, as he finished the year with a 3.95 ERA in 136 2/3 innings. Rodón and Cortes ended up having fairly similar years in terms of limited innings and poor results. Rodón battled a forearm strain and hamstring strain as he posted a 6.85 ERA in 64 1/3 frames. Cortes twice went on the IL due to a rotator cuff strain in his left shoulder and finished the campaign with a 4.97 ERA in 63 1/3 innings.
There’s tons of bounceback potential in that trio, as Stroman has a 3.65 ERA in his career while having reached 179 innings four times in his career. Rodón was an ace over 2021 and 2022, posting a 2.67 ERA in 310 2/3 innings in that time. Cortes had a 2.61 ERA in that same two-year stretch, though in a lesser workload of 251 2/3 innings.
If all three are able to get back to their previous forms, the rotation could be in good shape without Cole, but that’s a lot for the Yanks to gamble on. They are heavily committed to competing in 2024, as they gave up five players to get one year of Juan Soto. They also got Trent Grisham from the Padres in that deal, but Soto’s 2024 season was obviously the highlight for them. In addition to the talent they gave up, they are paying Soto a $31MM salary, plus the taxes incurred as a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax.
Even in an ideal situation where Stroman, Rodón and Cortes are all in good form, there’s still the back end of the rotation to think about. Clarke Schmidt will likely be taking one spot after he put up a 4.64 ERA last year. That’s probably fine for a #5 guy but the fact that the Yankees have been consistently connected to free agents suggests they would prefer to knock Schmidt down to #6, but he’s instead been bumped up to #4 for as long as Cole is out.
Current options to take a spot behind Schmidt would include Luke Weaver, Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gómez or Will Warren. Weaver has posted an ERA of 6.40 or higher in three of the past four seasons. Gil missed most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. Gómez has literally two innings of MLB experience while Beeter and Warren have none.
It’s a less than ideal group and it’s understandable that the club is interested in bolstering it. They’ve long been connected to marquee free agents like Snell and Montgomery but signing either of those guys would be especially costly. The Yanks are above the fourth and final tier of the CBT and are set to be a third-time payor, meaning any additional spending comes with a 110% tax bill. Even if Snell or Montgomery could be talked down to a $20MM annual salary at this late stage of the offseason, the Yanks would be looking at paying $22MM in taxes on top of that this year.
That situation would be lessened with Lorenzen, as he has a far more limited track record as a starter than those two. The Reds kept him in relief for most of his career but he sought out a return to starting when he reached free agency ahead of the 2022 season. He signed a one-year, $6.75MM deal with the Angels and was able to toss 97 2/3 innings, missing a couple of months with a shoulder strain and finishing the year with a 4.24 ERA.
It wasn’t an elite performance but he held his own and pushed up his annual workload. He then signed an $8.5MM deal with the Tigers for 2023 and took another step forward. He logged 105 2/3 innings with Detroit over 18 starts, with a 3.58 ERA in that time. He was traded to the Phillies and his first two starts for his new club were excellent. He allowed two earned runs over eight innings against the Marlins and then followed that up with a no-hitter against the Nationals.
He tossed 124 pitches in that no-hitter and seemed to break down after that. He was sporting a 3.23 ERA at that time but then allowed 27 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings the rest of the way, getting bumped to the bullpen in the process.
His 4.18 ERA on the year might not look amazing but it’s possible he ran out of gas after pushing himself further than he had gone before. Even if his true talent is a mid-4.00 ERA guy, that can be useful for the Yankees this year. Cole may be back in a few months but other injuries are inevitable and Lorenzen would improve the depth by pushing everyone down a peg.
It was reported last week that Lorenzen was holding out for a two-year deal that hasn’t yet materialized. Whether he can get that pact or ultimately has to settle for a one-year deal, he’ll be looking at a lesser salary than Snell or Lorenzen and the Yankees would have less to worry about in terms of taxes. A hypothetical $10MM salary, just as an example, would lead to $11MM in taxes. That’s still $21MM for a backend starter but it’s perhaps preferable to committing far more money and many more years for someone like Snell or Montgomery.
The Yankees were reportedly leaning towards acquiring Dylan Cease in the wake of Cole’s injury, as Cease’s $8MM salary would be far more palatable to them than the Snell/Montgomery duo, but Cease was traded to the Padres yesterday. There are some theoretical trade candidates still out there, such as Shane Bieber of the Guardians and Jesús Luzardo of the Marlins. However, both the Guards and the Fish are dealing with significant rotation injuries and may be less inclined to further subtract from their pitching staffs at the moment.
Lorenzen has received interest from the Mets, Angels, Twins, Padres and Orioles at various points this offseason, but he remains unattached now in mid-March. The Sox trading Cease seems to have given them some interest in signing Lorenzen to replace his innings, in addition to the Yankees sniffing around due to Cole’s situation. The regular season starts next week with the Seoul Series featuring the Dodgers and Padres but the rest of the league starts the season on March 28, two weeks from today.
