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• CeeDee Lamb is a top-two option: Lamb has improved every season of his career and if anything, he could see more targets while other elite wide receivers have more question marks.
• Take risks early: De’Von Achane and Malik Nabers are risky options in fantasy leagues, but they also have the chance for elite upside.
Estimated reading time: 13 minutes
The perfect draft series combines current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues for anyone picking second.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Tuesday, August 20
Round 1, Pick 2: Draft a wide receiver
If Christian McCaffrey happens to fall to this spot, then feel free to take him and adjust this draft strategy from there. Outside of that, Lamb is an easy decision to make given his production and the concerns around other wide receivers.
Top Target: CeeDee Lamb (Player Profile)
Lamb has noticeably improved each season and is now at the top of the position. He finished 2023 as the top wide receiver and has less competition for targets this season after Tony Pollard‘s and Michael Gallup‘s departure. The only notable addition is sixth-round receiver Ryan Flournoy, which will have no impact on Lamb’s target share.
In contrast, Justin Jefferson has a new quarterback, Ja’Marr Chase’s quarterback is coming back from injury and Tyreek Hill is 30 years old, adding a little risk to each of their profiles.
Possible Targets: Christian McCaffrey
Round 2, Pick 23: Draft a running back
In the past, this was the prime pick for a quarterback, but Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts‘ ADPs have fallen to a point where running back or wide receiver can be the focus. For the most part, running backs provide the most value here, as all of the wide receivers that are proven or have the most upside will be off the table.
Top Target: De’Von Achane (Player Profile)
Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has suggested they want to get Achane more involved in this season. His role was roughly similar to Jahmyr Gibbs‘ last season. Gibbs was also a rookie running back on a team with a clear lead rusher. He also is just a little bigger than Achane. Gibbs received 1.5 more carries per game and 0.6 more receptions. Those increases seem reasonable, although Gibbs also should touch the ball more than Gibbs last season.
Achane is the riskiest running back with a top-12 ADP. If he improves as a receiver, stays healthy and sees a small increase in touches, he has a chance to be a league-winning RB1. There is also a chance that he continues to miss time here and there with an injury, his opportunities don’t increase and his rate stats inevitably regress. His size mixed with his rookie production is so unique that it’s harder to predict him than most players.
Possible Targets: James Cook, Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, Kenneth Walker III, Aaron Jones
Round 3, Pick 26: Draft a quarterback
A quarterback is the ideal pick at the start of Round 3. These perfect draft articles constantly mentioned Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts at the end of Round 2 last season, and they ended up finishing first and second in fantasy points at the position. Both quarterbacks have changed this offseason, but their talent and rushing production still leave them squarely at the top.
In contrast, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith were the other options to end Round 2 last season. All three were worthy of being fantasy starters, but none finished in the top 15 as their draft status implied. This year, the other options are a top tight end or other running backs and wide receivers who are likely fantasy starters but come with more risk.
Top Target: Jalen Hurts
Hurts has averaged at least 21.0 fantasy points per start in every season of his career. While his tush push touchdowns have certainly helped his fantasy value, he’s one of just four quarterbacks with at least 2,200 rushing yards over the last three seasons while no one else is above 1,300. Considering one of those four is a backup and the other two are at an age where we stop seeing as much rushing production from quarterbacks, Hurts could be the best rushing quarterback this season. He is also surrounded by a top-three receiving corps and offensive line so even if his rushing touchdown total recedes, his fantasy production should remain high.
Possible Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott
Round 4, Pick 47: Draft a wide receiver
The value at wide receiver is too high to pass up. Several options are the clear top wide receivers on the team, where the running backs at this point are starting to have a lot of question marks. In general, a hero running back strategy ends up being the best strategy based on where the value is at the position.
Top Target: Malik Nabers (Player Profile)
Seven wide receivers were selected in the first half of the first round from 2021-2023. Six finished as top-32 fantasy wide receivers, except Jameson Williams, who came into the NFL with an ACL tear. Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle were the only ones picked in the top six, and they finished fifth and 13th, respectively. Nabers isn’t quite in the same situation as Chase or Waddle, but he should join the other highly drafted rookies who are clear fantasy starters in their first season. He played in 30-of-33 snaps with the starters in the Giants’ second pre-season game, with a 33.3% target rate, further proving he will be the clear lead target in New York.
Possible Targets: Rashee Rice, Amari Cooper, Tank Dell, George Pickens, Zay Flowers
Round 5, Pick 50: Draft a tight end
The start of Round 5 is a sweet spot for adding a star tight end, which is why that position was ignored at the end of Round 2. The top tight ends available at this spot have either finished as top-six fantasy tight ends each of the last two seasons with the same quarterback and offensive play-caller or are a young tight end with a great opportunity to have a career year.
Top Target: Kyle Pitts (Player Profile)
Pitts is a very talented tight end who has consistently underperformed in fantasy football. His 82.4 PFF receiving grade over the last three seasons is the fifth-best among tight ends, behind Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert. Pitts’ utilization has been a major problem. Last season, he played over 75% of his team’s offensive snaps in only two games, with a 64% median. Zac Robinson will now orchestrate the Atlanta Falcons offense, which is a big reason for optimism regarding Pitts’ role this season. He’s expected to stay on the field and see a higher target rate.
Everything points to Pitts putting up better numbers this season if he can stay healthy. There is some uncertainty with the new offensive play-caller, new quarterback, and the limited sample size of tight ends as young as Pitts entering their fourth season. Pitts should be a clear fantasy starter this season, but he will need to find the red zone more often to break into the top five or higher. If everything goes right, he has the potential to be the overall TE1.
Possible Targets: Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Jake Ferguson, Evan Engram, Brock Bowers
Round 6, Pick 71: Draft a wide receiver
With a top-six quarterback and tight end secured, the next several picks will be some combination of running back and wide receiver. When you have a top-six quarterback or tight end, you’re not benching them because a backup has a better matchup. That means a backup is only necessary in case of injuries and you can draft more running backs and wide receivers, allowing you to make lineup decisions based on matchups and who breaks out.
In this case, a wide receiver is best to pick because several proven players are in new situations this year. Ideally, the new situation allows them to outperform their ADP. If it doesn’t, then hopefully one of the several sleeper wide receivers picked later ends up breaking out.
Top Target: Rashee Rice (Player Profile)
Rice finished as WR27 and was a top-36 wide receiver in nearly 70% of his games despite playing less than 70% of his team’s offensive snaps in all but four games. By Week 14, he began receiving playing time comparable to a typical starting wide receiver, playing at least 75% of his team’s offensive snaps from Weeks 14-17. During this period, he ranked eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers. In the playoffs, Rice played at least 75% of the Kansas City Chiefs‘ offensive snaps in three of four games, averaging 6.5 receptions for 65.5 yards per game against some of the NFL’s best defenses.
If not for the potential suspension, he would be considered a top-10 wide receiver this season. Even if he is suspended for the first six games, his fantasy value would increase simply by knowing he would be available for the fantasy playoffs.
Possible Targets: Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Keenan Allen, Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze
Round 7, Pick 74: Draft a wide receiver
While this team needs a second running back, it’s hard to pass up the value at wide receiver here. As mentioned above, there is a lot of value at wide receiver at this point of the draft. Because of the constant wide receivers, the rest of this draft will go heavy at wide receiver.
Top Target: Chris Godwin
Godwin was a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in both 2021 and 2022, but his health was a concern in 2023, so the Tampa Bay Buccaneers kept him as an outside receiver rather than moving him to his traditional slot role in three-receiver sets.
On top of being healthy and having his ideal role, Godwin gains Liam Coen as an offensive coordinator. Coen worked with Cooper Kupp as an assistant wide receivers coach in 2018 and 2019 before becoming the offensive coordinator in 2022, when Kupp led all wide receivers in fantasy points per game (22.4). Godwin has excellent potential in the middle rounds of the draft.
Possible Targets: Diontae Johnson, Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze, Hollywood Brown, Christian Watson
Round 8, Pick 95: Draft a running back
As mentioned above, this team is now in need of a lot of running backs in hopes of hitting one to be a constant fantasy starter. If none of them hit, then you’ll have to go based on matchups each week.
Top Target: Devin Singletary (Player Profile)
Singletary has consistently graded well as a runner. He recorded a 73.0-plus PFF rushing grade every season and at least a 78.0 mark in each of the past three seasons. He joins the New York Giants this season and should be the featured running back. He played in 29-of-33 snaps with the starters in the second preseason game, making it clear he will see more playing time than the vast majority of running backs picked ahead of him. Typically, feature backs are picked much higher, but he will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines and has never graded well as a receiver. It’s also possible that he won’t play on third downs. That should prevent him from getting picked in the first half of drafts, but he can be a steal in the second half.
Possible Targets: Chase Brown, Tyjae Spears, Austin Ekeler, Ezekiel Elliott, Jerome Ford
Round 9, Pick 98: Draft a running back
As mentioned above, this team needs a lot of running backs, and there is good value at running back at this point of the draft, with players who should at least see a lot of playing time, but also have the upside to be elite if they get a clear hold of the starting job.
Top Target: Chase Brown
Brown is competing with Zack Moss for the starting running back job in Cincinnati. Throughout training camp, he’s received plenty of first-team looks and has shined throughout. During the first preseason game, he received opportunities on third-and-long — a situation he wasn’t involved with last season — so he has an opportunity to be much more involved in the passing game. He’s a gamble, but a solid one to make at this point in the draft.
Possible Targets: Devin Singletary, Tyjae Spears, Austin Ekeler, Ezekiel Elliott, Jerome Ford
Round 10, Pick 119: Draft a wide receiver
The next four rounds are mostly about picking your guys. If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to pick them, but I’d lean toward stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. I lean toward picking a running back and wide receiver at each of the next two pairs of picks, picking whichever players are at the top of the board.
Top Target: Jakobi Meyers
Meyers finished last season as WR24 thanks to 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He’s getting drafted much later than that because he’s the clear second option behind Davante Adams and the Las Vegas Raiders have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league. The Raiders also drafted Brock Bowers in the first round, which could further push Meyers down the target ladder. The quarterback situation was arguably worse last season, and his ADP is much lower than his WR24 finish last season, making him a solid gamble late in drafts.
Possible Targets: Brandin Cooks, Curtis Samuel, Romeo Doubs, Mike Williams, Rashid Shaheed
Round 11, Pick 122: Draft a running back
Top Target: Zach Charbonnet
Charbonnet was the third running back on our big board in 2023, just behind Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, and just ahead of De’Von Achane and Tyjae Spears. The second-round rookie won the third-down and two-minute drill job by November. He had three games playing over 60% of his team’s offensive snaps when Ken Walker III was injured, but those were against the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys — three top-12 run defenses by PFF grade. The most likely scenario is he’s a passing back and handcuff to Walker, but with a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb, we could see a completely different running back rotation — potentially one where Charbonnet is the starter.
Possible Targets: Chuba Hubbard, Tyler Allgeier, Jaleel McLaughlin, Rico Dowdle, Antonio Gibson
Round 12, Pick 143: Draft a running back
Top Target: Tyler Allgeier
Allgeier leads all running backs who are true handcuffs, playing behind Bijan Robinson. The first reason he stands out is his talent, as his 90.6 PFF offensive grade the last two seasons is fourth-best among those with at least 500 snaps. The Atlanta Falcons also have the NFL’s second-best run-blocking offensive line. He ranked fourth in our running back handcuff tier rankings.
Possible Targets: Jaleel McLaughlin, Antonio Gibson, Ray Davis, Khalil Herbert, Kendre Miller
Round 13, Pick 146: Draft a wide receiver
Top Target: Gabe Davis
Davis spent most of his time in Buffalo as a deep threat who caught a lot of touchdowns but didn’t have a high catch rate. In Jacksonville, he should see more of a complete route tree and see a higher target share. In the first preseason game, he took 100% of snaps with the first-team offense. Calvin Ridley finished as WR17 last season as the top outside receiver in Jacksonville and either Davis or Brian Thomas Jr. could earn that role this season.
Possible Targets: Darnell Mooney, Adam Thielen, Ja’Lynn Polk, Jahan Dotson, Josh Downs
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
