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Michigan State men’s basketball carries constant expectations. They’re a product of Tom Izzo’s quarter-century of success, a run that’s come with the same preseason song and dance occurring annually. It goes like this: Izzo rattles off what’s lost from last season, then laments a gratuitous non-conference, then laments everything that could go wrong, but then comes around to the other side and says something like, “But, you know, I really like this team, and I think we have a chance.”

Every year. Same thing.

In most seasons, it’s easy to roll one’s eyes at Izzo. Because as he grumbles over this or that, onlookers are out there ranking Michigan State in the top 15 nationally and discussing its Big Ten championship hopes.

This year’s Spartans will again be picked in the top three or four of the Big Ten, and again in the preseason Top 25, but looking at Izzo’s team through non-green glasses, you have to wonder if it’s because that’s where this team truly stacks up or if it’s because this is Michigan State.

Fact is, the program finished tied for seventh in the Big Ten last season and ranked No. 42 in KenPom.com’s efficiency ratings.

And the fact is, this year’s team is essentially the same roster, minus Max Christie, Gabe Brown, Marcus Bingham and Julius Marble. The lone high-impact addition is top-50 freshman center Jaxon Kohler.

So, really, what are reasonable expectations?

Hoping to find out, I rolled over to East Lansing last week to sit with Izzo, go over the roster and watch practice. There’s a lot to like about this Michigan State team. There’s also plenty to question.

1. Jaden Akins 

What was one of Michigan State’s major reasons for hope is now an overhanging preseason concern.

Akins, the Spartans’ potential breakout sophomore star, left practice last Wednesday with what looked like a foot injury. He was placed in a walking boot as team medical staff sought to figure out what the injury was. The initial concern of a fracture gave way to an eventual diagnosis of a stress reaction. Akins traveled to Green Bay, Wis., over the weekend to undergo surgery by foot and ankle specialist Dr. Robert B. Anderson.

The injury was publicly announced on Tuesday. According to a program statement, Akins is expected to miss four weeks and make a full recovery.

That is, as long as all goes as planned. Michigan State is no stranger to preseason foot injuries.

Akins’ importance can’t be overstated. His upside is enormous, and he’s expected to fill the major void left by Brown and Christie. Akins played under 15 minutes per game last season but showed the type of flashes that left everyone wanting to see more. He’d have played a larger role, if not for a logjam of minutes in front of him. He is dynamic off the bounce, made 19 of 50 3s and is a quality defender.

The hope, of course, is that Akins is fully recovered by the Nov. 7 opener against Northern Arizona and, more importantly, the gauntlet of games that follow.

Still ridiculous seeing this early Michigan State stretch actually laid out.

Gonzaga on an aircraft carrier
vs Kentucky in Indy
home vs Nova
against Alabama in Portland
then UConn or Oregon
then UNC/Portland/Nova/or Iowa St
at Notre Dame
then 2 Big Ten games

In a 26-day span.

— Brendan Quinn (@BFQuinn) September 8, 2022

But foot injuries are especially worrisome. Per sports-health.com, a stress reaction includes pain, swelling and abnormal remodeling that occurs before a bone fractures.

The good news for Akins and the Spartans is that the injury was discovered early and didn’t amount to a fracture. Eight weeks remain until the opener. The bad news, though, is how important this preseason was to Akins’ role development. Now he’s out for at least a month, and Michigan State can’t be fully sure what it’ll look like in 2022-23.

In the larger picture, Akins’ injury directly speaks to what might be the Spartans’ biggest concern …

2. Bodies, or lack thereof

Izzo admits it’s a glaring issue.

“We’re not very deep.”

Ten scholarship players, to be exact, with one being a freshman originally thought to be a likely redshirt, and one currently recovering from surgery.

Even at a time when more and more college programs are leaving scholarships open, Michigan State’s light roster sticks out. The breakdown: Once Akins is back, the Spartans will have four options in the backcourt with Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard as experienced point guards who can play separately or together, Akins as a two guard, and freshman Tre Holloman, a top-100 recruit with good size, as a reserve.

On the wings, Malik Hall should average closer to 30 minutes (well more than the modest 21.8 minutes per game he played a year ago), while Pierre Brooks should progress as a sophomore. The staff is high on him, but Brooks saw only deep reserve minutes last season and has a lot to prove.

Joey Hauser will play both as a four-man and as a small-ball five.

At center, Jaxon Kohler could be a Day 1 starter as a freshman, while Mady Sissoko is back for his third season. Carson Cooper, a 6-foot-11 freshman, was recruited as a walk-on and expected to redshirt, but is now on scholarship and seen as a potential role player.

That, essentially, is it. For a coach long known for occasionally playing upwards of 10 or 11 players in his early season rotations, Izzo is all but locked into an eight- or nine-man rotation.

This presents a confounding quality to Michigan State. Looking at the top five or six players, it’s probably one of the three most talented groups in the Big Ten. At the same time, it’s also a group that’s a couple of injuries away from needing to borrow football players to fill out the roster.

That’s a precarious position. One that has plenty of people wondering …

3. Why didn’t Izzo tap the transfer portal?

Because he didn’t want to. And he felt he didn’t need to. His program, his call. That’s about it.

At the beginning of the offseason, I thought Michigan State should pursue both an athletic wing and a center. That was before Christie declared for the NBA Draft and Marble transferred to Texas A&M. Really, why wouldn’t Izzo be active? He grabbed Tyson Walker out of the portal in the 2021 offseason and took Hauser as a transfer from Marquette in 2019.

When the transfer topic arose in Izzo’s office last week, he responded: “People say, ‘Oh, well, you didn’t go out and get anyone.’ But what does that do for the guys who’ve been here?” Izzo hit on this idea again and again – that in this era of high-volume transfers, a lot of programs are taking players for the sake of taking them and recruiting over those players already in the program. He said he wants to avoid doing so, unless absolutely necessary.

I kicked back that the center position was a necessary position coming into this year. Michigan State has a freshman (Kohler), a junior who has scored 60 points and committed 57 fouls in 270 career minutes played (Sissoko), and a freshman who nearly redshirted (Cooper).

“OK, so why didn’t we?” Izzo said. “Well, where are you going to get (a center) that’s that good? You know? Just go get one from a smaller school that might not be that good? Look, we felt we owed Mady a chance. And he’s gotten better. He’s going to be OK. Jaxon is going to be OK. We like Carson. Joey (Hauser) can give us some minutes down there. We’ll play small ball, some, with Malik and Joey at the four-five. By committee, we’ll be OK there.”

Maybe. The best centers in the Big Ten are Hunter Dickinson, Zach Edey, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Cliff Omoruyi. Outside of that group, Michigan State won’t see many fives that present serious trouble. Problem is, though, in non-league, Michigan State will see Drew Timme (Gonzaga), Oscar Tshiebwe (Kentucky), Eric Dixon (Villanova), Charles Bediako (Alabama) and Nate Laszewski (Notre Dame), either Adama Sanogo (UConn) or five-star freshman Kel’el Ware (Oregon), and also, just for good measure, possibly Armando Bacot (North Carolina).

Izzo’s point about the availability of an impact center does carry some weight, though. It’s not as if there’s a stockpile of them out there. The portal is not a convenience store. Looking at the Big Ten, the best center to transfer into the league this offseason was maybe Dain Dainja at Illinois? He’s a former top-100 recruit but appeared in three games and played nine minutes at Baylor last season.

While I still believe Michigan State should have been active in the transfer market, it’s fair to acknowledge the portal isn’t as simple as it seems.

That said, be clear, Izzo is approaching this from a “my way” stance. He is frustrated with free agency in college hoops and not overly eager to engage in it. That’s the luxury of reaching 24 straight NCAA Tournaments. He can build his team how he wants. What are they gonna do, fire him?

4. New-look A.J. Hoggard

Entering his third season in East Lansing, Hoggard is barely recognizable. He’s still listed at 210 pounds, as he was last year, but the junior is seriously trimmed down. He looks leaner, stronger, and is moving better than ever.

Hoggard is one of the more intriguing players in the Big Ten this season. The point guard led the nation in assist rate last season (46.1) and brings great physically and length defensively, but there’s always been a degree of variability to both his play and his decision-making. As Izzo puts it: “He can guard the world, but I just have to keep him consistent, and for a guy with 174 assists, he still needs to be a better passer.”

Hoggard, though, might be the closest thing this team has to an alpha. He’ll yell over a huddle. He’ll pop off on a teammate. He’ll step in an opponent’s face. Izzo says he’s the toughest player on the roster — a high compliment. Considering that some in the program thought Hoggard might transfer after his freshman year, the Philly native has come a long way.

“He’s much more mature and I’d tell ya if he wasn’t, ’cause that’s been a journey,” Izzo said.

5. How ready is Jaxon Kohler?

No player will garner as much attention as Kohler this preseason. Michigan State needs him badly.

My first in-person look at the freshman was impressive. The offense is as advertised. Kohler has a deep bag of low-post moves. Highly skilled. Seriously physical. Very clever. He can go up, under, over. Finish with both hands. He can take two dribbles with his left in the high post, spin right and beat his man going to the hoop. He can pass to the opposite wing or find the corner. He can pop and hit an occasional 3. There’s a lot to like.

The flip-side, for as good as Kohler’s offensive footwork is, he doesn’t move well getting up and down the floor and he’s slow defensively. Opposing offenses will put him in endless ball screens and look to take advantage in transition. The Spartans will have to make adjustments to hide the liability, as they did with Nick Ward, but that can only go so far.

The question is, how many minutes can reasonably be expected from Kohler? Looking at centers to come through East Lansing in the last 10 years, Jaren Jackson is the lone freshman to play more than 50 percent of available minutes in the middle.

Let’s say Kohler hits 50 percent. That leaves 20 minutes per game to fill at the five. Is anyone overly comfortable with Sissoko playing double-digit minutes? Can Cooper give spot minutes here and there?

Or is the best option …

6. Small ball

Given Hauser’s size and defense, is going small a great option for Michigan State? Not necessarily. But is it a solid option in certain situations? Absolutely.

Hauser shouldn’t be asked to defend Dickinson or Edey, but against the right opponents, he can stretch opposing defenses and present enough issues to offset any liabilities. Malik Hall, meanwhile, can always handle the tougher matchup, when needed.

Hauser at least brings production. Relatively quietly, he shot over 40 percent on 3s last season, hitting at a 47.4-percent clip over the season’s final 13 games, including a 4-of-6 performance against Davidson in the NCAA Tournament. Regardless of his position, he should shoot more in 2022-23 and increase his 2.8 attempts per game from last season. Overall, Hauser’s 5.3 shot attempts per game ranked seventh on last year’s team. He’ll be taking on a much larger role this season. Frankly, Michigan State doesn’t have that many other options. There will have to be some positional variance to get the most out of him.

7. The old reliables

Izzo says Hauser, Hall and Walker had the best offseasons of anyone on the roster and “are in the best shape of their lives.”

Michigan State might not have depth, but it does have reliable experience, and that can’t be discounted. Hauser, Hall and Walker have played 97, 95 and 86 career games, respectively, and combined for 177 starts. They represent a core of familiar veteran cohesion that, when you look at other rosters and the amount of turnover across much of the Big Ten, stands out.

We should talk about Walker. He could very well be one of the most underrated players in the league heading into this year. He held his own last season after transferring from Northeastern with no redshirt season, but could come into his own this year. There will be far fewer adjustments as a senior and he should be much more comfortable co-piloting with Hoggard. Remember, it was Walker who took and made some of MSU’s biggest shots last year.

8. Get to know Carson Cooper

The freshman was once a rising high school prospect in Jackson, Mich., about 40 miles south of Breslin Center, before joining the short-lived sideshow that was Ypsi Prep — a fly-by-night charter school centered around Emoni Bates. That didn’t go particularly well and shuttered after one season. So Cooper shipped off to IMG in Florida but joined the program late and was deep on the depth chart at the basketball powerhouse. As a result, he didn’t play on the school’s primary varsity team.

But Cooper was good, so coach Jimmy Carr, who previously coached Michigan State recruit Vernon Carey at NSU University School, called the Spartan staff. He pitched the idea of taking Cooper as a walk-on. Cooper held low- and mid-major scholarships but wanted to play high-major ball and liked the idea of returning home. It was a good fit for everyone.

In time, Izzo saw Cooper play a few sessions of EYBL and decided to offer a scholarship, but only under the condition that he redshirt a year to develop. Cooper agreed and committed.

And then? Cooper got to East Lansing this summer and, between his ability and physical gifts, and the Spartans’ need for depth at the five, the redshirt idea was tossed. Cooper will play this year and everyone around the program is convinced he’ll contribute.

“He might end up a real player here,” Izzo said. “He is 6-11, and he is long, and he is athletic, and he is 240, and he is smarter than hell.”

The athleticism is what really stands out. I’ve seen Cooper flip a lob to himself, run, jump, catch the ball, wheel it between his legs, and dunk it in one motion. He can do things you don’t see from guys at 6-11, 240. We’ll see how refined his basketball skills are, but he can give the Spartans a real presence at the rim if or when they need it.

9. Defense

After producing a top-40 defense nationally every season from 2007 to 2020, Michigan State dropped to 45th nationally in 2020-21, then plummeted to 67th last season. The Spartans allowed .971 points per possession, the third-most in Izzo’s entire tenure.

So as much as I’ve babbled here about offense and the roster and rotations, none of that really matters unless the defense is vastly improved.

But how plausible is that? While the perimeter defense could be very good with Hoggard-Walker-Akins, and Malik Hall is Malik Hall, the frontline is plainly a concern. Consider that last season’s Spartans ranked eighth in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency (1.05 ppp) despite holding opponents to a league-best 32 percent 3-point shooting. That was with a 7-footer in the middle. Is there any real reason to think it won’t be more of the same or worse? That will be up to them to prove.

10. Don’t forget about Malik Hall

We’ve come all this way without noting that Hall might be the closest player Michigan State has to a potential all-conference performer. In addition to being all-important defensively, he’s also this team’s leading returner in points per 40 minutes (16.3), field-goal percentage (51.5) and 3-point shooting (42.6).

Yet, Hall started only seven of 36 games and ranked fifth in minutes per game (21.8).

Part of that incongruity was on Hall. Consistency issues. But part of it was on the staff for not elevating Hall’s role.

That can’t happen this year. Hall should be a primary option most times down the floor and needs to play with such a mindset. He’s the type of player whose production will resonate. As he goes, the Spartans go.

(Top photo of Jaden Akins: Bob Donnan / USA Today)