This national player of the year race is one of the great ones, at least in the discussion and arguments it’s generating and in the quality of the two contenders. Auburn senior forward Johni Broome and Duke freshman forward Cooper Flagg would win it running away in most years.
But it’s not really close. Not if you actually examine what both of these guys have done this season, in the key moments and against whom. It’s almost like they’ve been playing different sports since January. Anyone who has a ballot for one of the NPOY awards and cares about getting his or her vote right should check Broome’s name without hesitation and sleep soundly on it.
If you want to botch it, go with Flagg because his traditional stats are a bit better than Broome’s. Or because what he’s doing is so extraordinary “for a freshman” — if anyone uses the phrase “for a freshman” in an argument for Flagg, tell them this is about national player of the year, period. He isn’t graded on a curve because of his youth, just as Broome shouldn’t get any extra benefit because he’s a senior and people like seeing seniors rewarded.
Worst of all, vote for Flagg because he’s more athletic, more talented and more coveted by the NBA. Go with the mock drafts that have Flagg going No. 1 and, in some cases, Broome going late in the first round. That’s a sure sign you should never vote for another individual award again. This is another consideration that need not apply either way: Flagg’s pending instant NBA glory has nothing to do with his candidacy for collegiate national player of the year; nor does Broome’s grind over years to go from unathletic, undesirable recruit to legitimate pro prospect.
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This is about what they’ve achieved this season, period. And the circumstances lift Broome’s achievement well above Flagg’s. It’s not Flagg’s fault that he plays in a historically bad ACC. It’s not to Broome’s credit that the 2025 SEC might be the best league in men’s college basketball history.
But those are the conditions. And you grade on a curve when it comes to conditions. If you didn’t, there would be a lot of mid-major players with stupid numbers over the years who would have won these awards at the expense of players whose numbers are restricted by playing at the sport’s highest levels.
Duke beat Auburn at Cameron Indoor Stadium in December. (Rob Kinnan / Imagn Images)
Broome played, and dominated, at the sport’s highest level this season. Flagg did not. The gap between their conferences exceeded that of many power leagues compared with many mid-major leagues in many seasons. If the NCAA selection committee is going to give 10 or so more bids to the SEC than the ACC, that’s another indication the floor is tilted when it comes to comparing players in those leagues.
The ACC served as a collective version of the Washington Generals to Duke’s Harlem Globetrotters this season, which provided lots of opportunities for Flagg to try out new dunks on breakaway opportunities. How many times this season, while watching a great game in the SEC or Big Ten or Big 12, did you get an ESPN cut-in on one of those dunks?
Do you remember anything else from Flagg’s romp through the ACC?
The regular-season phase ended Saturday with an 82-69 win at downtrodden rival North Carolina. Flagg finished with 15 points, nine rebounds, six assists and four blocks and ended up averaging team highs (19.4, 7.6, 4.2, 1.3) in all four. No. 2 Duke (28-3) ended up going 19-1 in the ACC, with an average margin of victory of 22.6 points. Duke is a tumbleweed of basketball excellence in a barren league.
One of those 20 games went down to the very end, a one-possession difference in the final minute. It was Duke’s Feb. 8 loss at Clemson, the only other ACC team with potential to go deep in the NCAA Tournament. It was the teams’ only meeting. Duke coach Jon Scheyer gave it to Flagg to face up and drive for the tie, down 2 in the waning seconds, and Flagg turned it over.
To be fair, he slipped on what looked like a slick spot. But he also had just 4 of his 18 points in the final 34 minutes of that game. And earlier in the season, when Duke was able to schedule games that would be competitive, he turned it over with no slippage late in a loss to Kansas. After he did the same thing in a loss to Kentucky.
He’s a freshman. He made some mistakes early in his first season in college. It sets up quite a redemption arc, and I’m here for Flagg making all those plays in the next few weeks on the way to San Antonio.
But the voting will be in by then. The voting is based on what happened during the season. And we’re comparing Flagg with a guy who scored the winning basket with one second left to beat Iowa State in Maui. Who had a huge block and steal late in a win over Houston. Who somehow zipped a pass from a crowd in the paint out to teammate Miles Kelly for the 3-pointer to beat Tennessee.
I watched Broome grit his teeth and drag that left leg through parts of practice the day before that game, then during timeouts of the game. He probably should have sat another week or so. But he still managed to bully his way to 16 points and 14 rebounds against the best defensive team in the sport.
No. 1 Auburn (27-4, 15-3) won the outright championship of a conference that might be the best ever — the NCAA Tournament will decide that — and that’s despite losing both games in the final week. Broome has looked banged up as of late, still dragging the left leg and battling through injuries to both shoulders.
So what did he do on his senior day against rival Alabama? Try 34 points and eight rebounds, three assists, three steals and five blocks. He tied the score in the final minute of regulation, then just missed on the baseline for the win. He gave his team the lead in overtime with a putback, then with a 3-pointer. He tied it with another 3-pointer with 15 seconds left. He put his head in his hands when Mark Sears won an incredible game, 93-91, with a floater at the buzzer.
He reminded everyone that he’s the national player of the year. He finished as Auburn’s team leader in scoring (18.6 per game), rebounds (10.6), assists (3.3) and blocks (2.4). He eclipses Flagg in blocks and boards.
Flagg beats out Broome in a key KenPom statistic, offensive rating — Flagg at 124.5, Broome at 122.4. Look a little deeper and you see the difference in their seasons. Flagg’s rating is 132.6 in ACC games. But against Tier A competition (top 50 opponents, adjusted for location), it plummets to 107.8.
Broome’s rating drops slightly to 117.4 against Tier A. He maintains performance against the best, but Flagg doesn’t. Broome also saw the best much more often — 19 games against Tier A, with just 10 for Flagg.
Auburn never went more than two games between top 50 opponents all season, played just two SEC opponents that aren’t top 50 and had six games against teams in the top 10. Duke had separate stretches of six and four games between top 50 opponents and played just four in all of ACC play. No stat can adequately capture the wear-and-tear difference between constantly preparing for excellent opponents and yawning/dunking your way to March.
Duke played exactly one team all season in the KenPom top 10: Auburn.
That 84-78 Duke win Dec. 4 at Cameron Indoor Stadium is an obvious data point in Flagg’s favor. You might even hear people, such as my colleague Brendan Marks, say Flagg “outplayed” Broome that night. I’d call that an overstatement. To confirm, I rewatched that game Saturday.
They never guarded each other. They hardly crossed paths. Both were strangely left out of too many offensive possessions late in the game. Both had good nights. Flagg finished with 22 points and 11 rebounds on 7-for-18 shooting in 37 minutes. Broome finished with 20 points and 12 rebounds on 8-for-18 shooting in 37 minutes.
Duke freshman Isaiah Evans had the key stretch to flip the game and give Duke a margin to work with the rest of the night, hitting six 3-pointers in the first half. Flagg did hit 3 of 4 from the line in the final minute. And he was involved in the biggest play of the game — with Duke up 70-68, Auburn’s Chad Baker-Mazara blocked Flagg’s shot on a drive, and Duke’s Tyrese Procter grabbed the loose ball and nailed a 25-footer at the shot-clock buzzer.
That was big for the ACC, too — it doubled its wins in the ACC/SEC Challenge, making for a final deficit of 14-2. The quality of these two players, and two teams, is as elite and close as it gets. The things they’ve been asked to do are vastly different.
Witness the NBA mock draft of another colleague, Sam Vecenie. He has Flagg going No. 1. Broome going No. 28. Six other SEC players in the first round. Three ACC players in the first round — two of them Flagg teammates, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach. Procter is a second-round projection. None of Broome’s teammates appears.
From every angle, Flagg’s path to the end of this argument has been easier and more advantaged. It’s not his fault. But it can’t be his award.
(Top photo of Johni Broome: John Reed / Imagn Images)
