Thanks to everyone that sent in questions for this week’s Atlanta Braves mailbag. We will be doing more of these throughout the regular season. Let’s get to it!
The Braves’ offensive approach clearly works during the regular season. Suffice to say the last two playoffs didn’t go the way we’d like. Have you heard anything about focusing a bit more on small ball, specifically the way of the bunt as an effort to offset power outages?
I haven’t heard anything and I certainly hope that they wouldn’t let the small sample size of two five-game series dictate any changes. It is normal to look at how the last two seasons ended for the Braves and to seek out answers. However, a change in offensive approach is not the recipe for success, and if the Braves seek one that pivots more towards anything considered “small ball,” they’ll actively be going against decades of research about how important power is, especially in the playoffs.
When the Braves won the World Series in 2021, they out homered their opponents 23-11. That includes an 11-2 margin in the World Series against the Astros. In 2022, the Braves and Phillies both homered five times each. All five for the Phillies came in the final two games of the series. In 2023, Philadelphia out homered Atlanta 11-3. I think it is easy to see the pattern here. Nor do you have to limit this to series the Braves play in. Historically, teams that outhomer their opponents in a game win 70 to 80 percent of the time, and that number only increases in the postseason, where better pitching and defense mean it’s harder to string hits together. If you need the research backing this up, we’ll be happy to supply it, and there’s a lot of it.
The Braves were by far the best offensive team in the majors in 2023. They scored 41 more runs than the second-place Dodgers and hit 58 more home runs than any other club. They also had the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors so it isn’t like they were an all or nothing offense. There was nothing wrong with their approach to warrant changes.
Some people don’t want to hear it, but the losses in the Division Series just speak to the randomness of the game. That randomness is just going to increase the more the playoffs are expanded, which seems likely after the next CBA negotiations.
In baseball, the best team doesn’t always win.
Who is the first Brave not named Harris to start a game in center field this season?
The good news is that the Braves have several candidates. Adam Duvall seems like an obvious choice now that he’s back in the fold. Forrest Wall could also play there, and the Braves had Jarred Kelenic play the position multiple times during the spring. My guess is that it would be Duvall, but I’m also intrigued by the thought of putting Kelenic there as well.
Who is the sleeper this year that is going to exceed all expectations?
It is hard to find a sleeper on a roster full of stars, but I think it is going to be Michael Harris II. Harris got off to a slow start in 2023 due to injuries, but turned it on and hit .335/.360/.552 with 16 homers and a 142 wRC+ over the final 100 games. ZiPS has him projected for a 20-20 season along with a 109 wRC+ and 3.7 fWAR. With a fully healthy season, I think he sails past those totals, makes his first All-Star team and wins his first career Gold Glove. The latter might be tough given how many good defenders there are in center field these days, but it’s not like they give that award to the best defender every time, anyway.
One thing that is working in Harris’ favor is that he’s been an absolute champ at making huge, meaningful adjustments. It’s hard to pinpoint his ceiling because he just keeps growing as a hitter.
First pitcher not named Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale, or Reynaldo Lopez to start a game for the big league club (a bullpen type of game or a SP called up from the minors)
An interesting question in that the answer is usually more about who is available and lined up than who really deserves it. Obviously, the Braves have plenty of options. Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver would probably be the favorites, but Allan Winans, Dylan Dodd and Darius Vines all made starts a year ago. At this point, we have no idea what the order will be at Gwinnett, but I will go with Smith-Shawver as nothing more than just a guess. I think the more appropriate question is: how many of the starters currently on the 40-man roster make starts this season?
Why were Darius Vines and Allan Winans optioned so early after a decent showing last season?
Quite simply, so they could get innings. The battle for the Braves’ fifth starter spot became a two-player race pretty quickly between Reynaldo López and Bryce Elder. Atlanta gave a little bit of a longer look to AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep during big league camp, but barring injury, neither really ever had much of a shot of landing a spot in the rotation to begin the season. The team simply didn’t have enough innings to get everyone stretched out and ready without sending some guys to minor league camp. I wouldn’t read too much into it either. Elder and Ian Anderson were sent to minor league camp early on before the 2023 season. It didn’t end up working out for Anderson, but Elder was Gwinnett’s Opening Day starter and then quickly moved into the rotation.
Over/Under on $180M to sign Max Fried?
If offered the deal today, I think somewhere in the neighborhood of $180 million sounds about right. If he stays relatively healthy and has a normal season before hitting the open market, then I will take the over. Barring a surprise extension, Fried is going to be one of the best starters available next winter and should draw tons of interest from the best teams in the majors. The price tag for established starters was very high this offseason and I don’t think next year will be any different.
Hypothesizing things about Fried’s eventual contract right now is really tough, because he’s coming off an injury-plagued year, and nothing tanks a pitcher’s propensity to get a huge contract like the potential for him to miss a bunch of time, at least in the world of hurlers not named Jacob deGrom. What he does in 2024 is going to swing his earning potential wildly one way or another, given that his 2023 was not very helpful to his quest of locking in a giant payday.
Do the Braves fill the remaining two slots on the 40-man with internal options or bring in someone from the outside?
After releasing Penn Murfee on Monday and then outrighting Jackson Stephens Tuesday, the Braves actually have four open spots on their 40-man roster. That isn’t counting Angel Perdomo, who will miss all of the 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, who can be placed on the 60-day Injured List which would open up an additional spot. One of those roster spots will go to Jesse Chavez prior to Opening Day Thursday.
The Braves don’t have to be in a rush to fill any of these spots. There is a chance someone becomes available between now and Opening Day that they take a flyer on, but having open spots gives them flexibility. If they need to add someone not currently on the 40-man roster, then they don’t have to worry about trying to get someone through waivers. It also allows them to monitor the waiver wire more aggressively once the season starts.
Is the team concerned about the mediocre results of Aaron Bummer thus far?
Bummer allowed six earned runs over 8 1⁄3 innings during the spring with a pretty uninspiring, 4.50+ FIP and xFIP, but I don’t think the Braves will put too much stock into those numbers when often relievers are working on things and just trying to get their innings in. Obviously, it will be something to watch if he continues to struggle, but that would also apply to several other pitchers as well. The good news is that the Braves have plenty of left-handed options available if Bummer needs to work in more low leverage situations to find his groove.
Honestly, this is where having more data would be helpful, because the reason Bummer’s Grapefruit League play was so bad (aside from the small sample) was a collapsing strikeout rate, but across 39 batters faced, it’s really hard to tell whether that rate collapsed due to small sample shenanigans, or because his stuff has taken a step back. And even if stuff had taken a step back per data we don’t have, he may have just been taking it easy in March before airing it out when the games count. It’s also worth noting that his issues last year, such as they were, had to do with a bunch of walks, and he didn’t walk a bunch of guys over the past month, so there’s not much of a throughline to be drawn there.
If he pitches fairly well in 2024, would the Braves consider a reunion with Michael Soroka if he becomes a FA?
No way of knowing this for sure, but it isn’t like the Braves to completely close the door on anything. On the surface, it appears that Soroka and the Braves parted ways on good terms. Soroka allowed two earned runs and struck out 17 over 13 innings this spring for the White Sox. As I mentioned above with Bummer, it is dangerous to read too much into spring numbers, but Soroka appears to be ticketed to begin the season in the White Sox rotation and there is a chance that the Braves see him during the second series of the season in Chicago.
If Soroka still had options remaining, there there is chance he’d still be with Atlanta. Hopefully now that he is further removed from that second Achilles injury, he can stay healthy and put together a productive season before entering free agency.
