Timo Riske: Washington Commanders +3 @ Indianapolis Colts
Bet Gameplan: Commanders +3 (or better), Commanders money line +125 (or better).
• Leverage uncertainty: It makes the angle in this game pretty simple. Sam Ehlinger could be a quarterback who is able to hold his own in an NFL game, but maybe he is not. Our default prior for a sixth-round pick is that he should be overwhelmed in his first start. Plus, a Washington defense that’s improved following a rough start should be able to put Ehlinger under pressure. As long as the Commanders get at least a field goal, I like this bet because it’s hard to envision the Colts running away with this one.
Ben Brown: Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp — Over 7.5 receptions (-135) @ San Francisco 49ers
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -150. a plus-money pivot to 8.5 also worth some action.
PFF Greenline top play: Colts WR Parris Campbell — Under 2.5 receptions (+122) vs Commanders
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -130
• With the Colts expected to lean heavily into Sam Ehlinger‘s running ability in his NFL starting debut, PFF Greenline shows a game-high 18.3% edge on Campbell finishing with 2 or fewer catches — despite him attracting double-digit targets in each of his past two games with Matt Ryan.
