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Previous Winner

Brailer Guerrero, OF
DSL | .261/.379/.391 (.770 OPS, 110 wRC+) 29 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB

Tampa Bay paid $3.7 million to land this prospect in January 2023, and just 7 games into his career he needed shoulder surgery. The logline on Guerrero is an exit velocity in the 110’s despite being just 17 years old, but he’s not just free swinging; there appears to be a solid approach at the plate. He’s already listed at 6’1” and 215 lbs, so there’s some concern his longterm future is at first base, but until then he has the arm to pile up outfield assists from a corner, assuming he returns to playing ball right as rain.

Guerrero received more than half of the Rays bonus pool in 2023, but needed shoulder surgery for a labrum injury just seven games into his Rays career. What he shows on the field this season will be one of the more important story lines to follow in the TB system. Does he still have plus bat speed, MLB exit velo, and all fields power? Time will tell.

Ian Seymour came up one vote shy in the last poll. This next round adds both 3B Willy Vasquez and LHP Jacob Lopez.

Rules

There will be a selection of players listed in the comments. To vote, reply to the player’s name with a +1 in the comment. For the best voting experience, filter the comment section by Oldest.

Please vote using whichever criteria you prefer! If you like stats, use stats. If you like scouting reports, reference those reports. There’s no one right way to do this — that’s what makes this exercise fun.

If you want to vote for a player who is not listed, there will be an “Others” comment. Reply to that comment with the name of your selection. This is incredibly rare because there will eventually be up to 10 players to choose from, but it’s possible a player you feel strongly about slipped through the cracks.

If you want to nominate a player to be included in the next poll, reply to the “Testers” comment with that player’s name. We will often limit the number of players accepted for the next poll to prevent the list from becoming cumbersome. All players in one poll who do not win the vote are automatically included in the next poll — there is no need to re-nominate.

Voting will go live on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday each week.

Candidates

Dru Baker, OF
A+ | .307/.396/.491 (.887 OPS, 144 wRC+) 377 PA, 13 HR, 38 SB
AA | .287/.346/.417 (.763 OPS, 105 wRC+) 127 PA, 1 HR, 11 SB

Back to back seasons the Rays promoted 2021 4th rounder Baker mid-season after he dominated his level, and both times he turned in a league average performance at the next level. From a tools perspective, he’s a right handed Colton Ledbetter that trades exit velo for more stole bases. His defense has projection in center, but he needs to keep the strikeouts down as he continues to climb the ladder. His easiest path to the majors is in a bench role.

Marcus Johnson, RHP
A | 3.74 ERA, 130.0 IP (26 G, 24 GS) 21.3% K, 3.8% BB

The Rays acquired Johnson shortly after he was drafted 112th overall by the Marlins in 2022 in a trade deadline deal that cleared 40-man roster space by sending Xavier Edwards to Miami. He was a projectable, 6’6” starter in the draft but had a short stride in his delivery that didn’t seem to take full advantage of his size. In reviewing tape from 2023, I’m not sure the Rays have changed much about his delivery (it’s possible he’s releasing closer to the plate, but the stride seems unchanged); the results came anyway. He’s got low mileage on his arm, having been a starter only one season for Duke, and has a breaking ball and change up that play.

Jacob Lopez, LHP
AA | 2.57 ERA, 28.0 IP (8 G, 6 GS) 45 K, 9 BB
AAA | 2.72 ERA, 79.1 IP (18 GS) 26.0% K, 14.0% BB
MLB | 4.38 ERA, 12.1 IP (4 G, 1 GS) 8 K, 2 BB

Lopez missed 2022 for Tommy John surgery, but rode the shuttle to the big leagues when he returned in 2023. Like most system southpaws, he’s a deception lefty with low velo stuff, and with a 2-seam/slider combo that plays in the lower third. He has a change, but lacks a third pitch vs lefties. It’s unlikely the Rays see a starter in his stuff, but his utility as an up-and-down bulk guy will keep him on your television screen this season. As for whether he could be something more, Lopez gets great extension and spins some quality armside run, so who knows what the Rays pitching lab could cook up for him.

Trevor Martin, RHP
A | 3.52 ERA, 110.0 IP (25 G, 22 GS) 28.7% K, 9.0% BB

2022 third round selection Trevor Martin was drafted with the profile of a high octane reliever, with a fastball up to 98 for Oklahoma State. He made only seven starts across his two seasons prior to draft eligibility, but showed up at the right time in the playoffs to turn heads with 16 K’s in 6.2 IP before the Rays selected him 104th overall. His emergence as a starter was a mild surprise, but the big bodied, 6’5” starter was up for task, becoming the first qualified Charleston pitcher to lead the team in ERA, strikeouts and wins since 2017. Tampa Bay clearly believes in him, giving him a start in the first week of Spring Training this year, where he struck out Cedric Mullins on three pitches (two swinging). (video)

Tre’ Morgan, 1B
Rk-A | .396/.482/.542 (1.024 OPS, 182 wRC+ in A) 56 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB

Three-year LSU first baseman Morgan was taken by the Rays in the third round of 2023, marking what looks like a great draft class on offense for Tampa Bay. He’s a strong defender at first baseman who can hit and hit consistently, even if it’s without commanding power thus far. If his swing follows his physical maturity, he could show 15 HR pop in an outfield role, but following his current trajectory as a slap hitting 1B with an elite glove, it sure sounds like a Rays first baseman.

Ian Seymour, LHP
Rk | 1.35 ERA, 6.2 IP (4 GS) 11 K, 4 BB
A | 1.64 ERA, 22.0 IP (6 GS) 22 K, 5 BB
A+ | 2.08 ERA, 8.2 IP (2 GS) 9 K, 5 BB
AA | 0.00 ERA, 4.2 IP (1 GS) 4 K, 2 BB

Seymour returned from Tommy John surgery on June 29, and got a slow start with a Complex and Low-A placement at couple-inning stints, but the Rays strategy proved successful. He was able to string together 13 starts across four levels, and locked it down each step of the way. If you remove his injured 2022, Seymour has a career 1.76 ERA. Like fellow org. southpaw Mason Montgomery, he’s a deception-lefty with a violent arm action, but unlike Montgomery he trades the plus slider for a plus change up with 10 mph separation. The over the top delivery has an awful head jerk (video), and accordingly gives the traditional mind a reliever projection, but if it works it works?

Willy Vasquez, 3B
A+ | .233/.310/.393 (.703 OPS, 93 wRC+) 472 PA, 16 HR, 17 SB

In another life, Vasquez is in Caminero’s shoes, but back-to-back seasons hitting under 100 wRC+ have dimmed the bright light of his other tools. Either his long swing needs reinvention, or he needs to prove himself against advanced pitching, as time is running out. Despite some struggles hitting for average at Class- and High-A these last two seasons, a trip to Double-A is next, and an opportunity to prove he’s worth addition to the 40-man roster next year. If he figures it out, the rest of his tools give a major league projection for an infield role.

Colby White, RHP
Rk | 2 ER, 10.1 IP | (11 G) 12 SO, 11 BB
A+ | 2 ER, 5.0 IP (5 G) 4 K, 2 BB
AA | 0 ER, 6.2 IP (8 G) 8 K, 4 BB

Relief-only prospect White returned from Tommy John surgery (due to an elbow fracture at the ligament) mid-way through 2023 after missing all of the previous season, and in total threw 22.0 IP with a 1.64 ERA across three levels. His potential as a high-leverage reliever is sky high, so much so that Tampa Bay added him to the 40-man roster last off-season to ensure he was not poached, despite being unable to pitch at the time. His game prior to the surgery was a 70-grade rising fastball and an above average power slider, but Marc Topkin reports he now boasts two breaking balls that Kyle Snyder calls, “better off-speed pitches than he’s ever featured before.”

Cole Wilcox, RHP
AA | 5.23 ERA, 106.2 IP (25 GS) 21.8% K, 9.7% BB

Wilcox’s first full season following Tommy John surgery in 2021 was muted, with his strikeouts lacking the expected mid-30’s rate. Perhaps that’s because his previous high-octane fastball that earned first round money from the Padres, before they sent him to the Rays in the Snell trade, barely scratches 94 these days. Good pitchers adjust, and the new version of Wilcox was working on a groundballer’s sinker/slider approach in 2023. He’s got a starter’s frame and the breaking ball plays, but it’s an open question as to whether it’s still a major league profile or just a projection of his pedigree.