College basketball is on its way, and there will be a pretty long list of familiar faces on board. But familiarity breeds predictability. A healthy dose of volatility, meanwhile, makes the sport fun. Who might be the human variables contributing to that, you ask?
Presenting The Athletic’s 20 Most Intriguing Players for the 2022-23 men’s hoops campaign. It’s an entirely subjective exercise aimed at, one, reminding everyone who (presumably) will play this winter, and, two, highlighting players in particularly compelling roles or circumstances.
As we note every year, this is not a list of the best men’s players. This is not a preseason All-America ballot. For example: Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe isn’t on this list. Tshiebwe will devour countless rebounds and score a bunch of points and probably earn many trophies. We know he’s good. This is more about those who might impact the game without quite as much certainty involved.
To that end: Be sure to check out our list of the most intriguing women’s players to watch, too.
Meanwhile, the 20 men’s players who pique our curiosity …
20. Julian Strawther, Gonzaga
A question about the Zags’ 2022-23 offensive personnel: Other than Drew Timme, who is — as the kids say — a problem? Reasonable arguments could be made for Chet Holmgren and Andrew Nembhard at this time a year ago; Nembhard had a different gear, especially in transition, and Holmgren was an extraterrestrial. Now? Unclear, matters are. If Rasir Bolton was that guy, he’d already be that guy. Malachi Smith likely will be good, at minimum, but it’s still wait-and-see with an up-transfer. No one else has an extended track record … except for Strawther, whose production translated from freshman reserve to sophomore starter. (Fun with extrapolation: 18.3 points and 6.5 rebounds per 40 minutes in his first year, 17.7 and 8.0 per 40 in his second, with basically the same effective field goal percentage.) If there’s a Junior Leap version of the proverbial Sophomore Leap, the growth of the 6-foot-7 former top 60 recruit tracks accordingly. The key might be Strawther diversifying his repertoire, and dealing better with defensive attention, in order to rise to “problematic” levels. Of his 271 shot attempts in 2021-22, 155 were jumpers, per Synergy Sports. The data shows only 14 possessions all season in which Strawther drove off a spot-up. He’s a good finisher (1.385 PPP on at-the-rim shots), but can he get to spots off the bounce? He also made just 26.1 percent of his guarded jumpers; can he be efficient when a game plan keys on him? With a spot in the first round of The Athletic’s first 2023 NBA mock draft, it would seem evaluators bet Strawther can develop into that guy. It’s probably a decent bet. But a bet is still a bet. It’s not a guarantee.
19. Trey Kaufmann-Renn, Purdue
Boilermakers die-hards may have wrung their hands raw over the point guard spot by the time the season rolls around, but, well, that’s a little too Inside Mackey for this exercise. The former top 50 recruit who missed his entire freshman season with a knee injury, who’s 6-9 with a theoretically multifaceted skill set that can provide Matt Painter some really intriguing lineup flexibility? Who is apparently healthy and ready to go for one of those seasons that feels like it could go a lot of different ways? Now we’re talking. That’s the stuff. Kaufmann-Renn effectively did the Purdue developmental redshirt by default, and he becomes a high-leverage test case as to whether a season behind the curtain has him ahead of the curve … or if he’s going to play like a freshman, who needs actual-game seasoning to develop. Even Painter, in an early summer conversation, conceded that’s a wait-and-see deal. It’s also a very meaningful variable for a program looking to maintain its hard-won standing in the Big Ten’s upper echelon and national consciousness.
18. Cam Whitmore, Villanova
Appraise Villanova and … well, what isn’t intriguing? Jay Wright is no longer the basketball coach! That actually happened in 2022 and not, like, 2032! Kind of a big deal. It rattles and recontextualizes every element of the program. But Whitmore, ready or not, becomes an emblem of a new era. Villanova could use an alpha, or at least a co-alpha, as currently constituted. Whitmore was the nation’s consensus No. 14 recruit, earned Most Outstanding Player honors in the FIBA U18 Americas Championships in June and is the third pick in The Athletic’s initial 2023 NBA mock draft. He is, in the words of first-year head coach Kyle Neptune, “one of the most gifted and heralded guys that have come through this program.” That’s a mouthful. Fair or foul, it puts Whitmore in position to make one of the first, crucial opening statements about the future of Villanova hopes.
HAPPY SUNDAY CAM WHITMORE‼️@NovaMBB x #BIGEASThoops
— BIG EAST MBB (@BIGEASTMBB) June 12, 2022
17. DaRon Holmes II, Dayton
By way of introduction, for those who may not be familiar with the 6-10 big man operating along the banks of the Miami River: Holmes was the No. 38 recruit in the Class of 2021, and thereby the highest-rated prospect ever to sign with Dayton. He delivered via earning Atlantic 10 Rookie of the Year honors and a spot on the league’s All-Defensive Team and All-Conference teams, period. The Flyers are a souped-up mid-major that should be a preseason Top 25 team and Holmes is the lodestar, and that’s interesting enough. What fascinates us most is the track Holmes is on, and what — or, more specifically, whom — it evokes. Some freshman year numbers for Holmes: 16.7 points and 7.9 rebounds per 40 minutes, an offensive rating of 124.9, an effective field goal percentage of 65.1 (seventh nationally) and 5.7 Win Shares. Obi Toppin’s freshman year production, meanwhile? Averages of 21.8 points and 8.5 rebounds per 40 minutes, an offensive rating of 123.2, an effective field goal percentage of 68.4 and 4.8 Win Shares. They appear to be wired a bit differently, yes, given Holmes’ superior rim protection and Toppin’s ability to do more offensively, in less time, as a freshman. But the distinctions don’t entirely disqualify the similarities. How Holmes’ second season evolves, and how closely (or not) it mirrors the development pace of Dayton’s last impact big — that’s the curiosity.
16. Andre Curbelo, St. John’s
For those confidently aboard the Andre Curbelo Express before the 2021-22 season — [clears throat, pulls shirt collar] — the end result evoked the train derailment scene in “The Fugitive.” Spectacular! Also no one involved expected to be sifting through wreckage at the end of the journey. Curbelo can still be a game-changer with the ball in his hands. He can be one of the more enjoyable players to watch on any campus anywhere. But there’s also a reason Illinois wasn’t clutching at his ankles when he was on his way out of town. The dynamic at St. John’s, meanwhile, doesn’t lack for combustible potential, either. The Long Island native is more or less playing at home, which can be very comforting … or very distracting. He’s partnering with Posh Alexander, which recently inspired my good friend Dana O’Neil to deem the Red Storm a possible surprise team nationally … or the sort of experiment that burns off everyone’s eyebrows. Curbelo has a usage rate of 27.6 percent across two college seasons. Alexander is at 20.6 percent through his two years. They have a combined 455 assists against 263 turnovers in 104 games between them. In theory — particularly due to their proven willingness to pass — there’s space for both to operate. In practice? Well, it won’t be boring.
15. Dior Johnson, Pittsburgh
The consensus four-star top 40 prospect who attended 10 high schools and previously committed to two other programs before signing with Pittsburgh joins a program on a streak of six straight losing seasons, one of which was undermined by massive chemistry issues, which set back the build significantly. Jeff Capel and Johnson’s camp and Pittsburgh fans are all probably tired of hearing about the peripatetic prep career and flip-flopping and all the assumptions we’re making because of it. And that’s fair enough. It’s also fair to have a wait-and-see approach regarding Johnson’s impact. Pitt has to win or change may be in order. Johnson has to be a fit, by all definitions, and be very good for Pitt to win. He’s as high-leverage a freshman as there is in the country.
14. Daimion Collins, Kentucky
Stay with me as I craftily use this slot to talk about Kentucky players I couldn’t decide between. It certainly could be that Jacob Toppin is the more intriguing piece. He is nowhere near his ceiling — though based on videos of him literally kissing the rim during workouts, he is close to someone’s ceiling — and he’ll probably play a ton of minutes for Kentucky in an important role. But it also seems like there’s no intrigue about that scenario, in a way? Toppin averaged 1.065 PPP on 168 offensive possessions a year ago, per Synergy Sports. Hardly a decisive usage rate, but also not an irrelevant sample size. He blew up a couple times on the Bahamas tour. He has a pro’s frame right now. The evidence strongly suggests Toppin is going to be a very good college basketball wing in 2022-23. Collins? He was the consensus No. 12 prospect in the Class of 2021 and then had three decent games all year, taking 52 shots on 78 total possessions. He also has raw physical talent unknown to most mortal men. The impact of a fully operational Daimion Collins on Kentucky’s rotation would be enormous, but who knows if it will happen? Or to what degree? Even if he is much improved, how much does a 6-9 big play on a team with Oscar Tshiebwe in the lineup? In the end, Collins is simply the bigger, more interesting variable.
Kris Murray averaged 9.7 points per game as a sophomore. (Gregory Fisher / USA Today)
13. Kris Murray, Iowa
I’m reminded of a conversation in Fran McCaffery’s office last winter, when Iowa’s coach was revisiting the recruitment of then-emerging-All-American Keegan Murray. McCaffery noted one subtle advantage of Murray’s year at prep school: It ensured the program had the scholarship room to sign his twin brother, too, when it might not have a cycle earlier. And, lo, there’s Kris Murray, nicely positioned within the top 20 picks of The Athletic’s first 2023 NBA mock draft. Also? Kris Murray has started one college basketball game and didn’t average double-digit scoring in 2021-22. The projection, then, is fascinating. On a per-40 minute level, Murray averaged nearly 22 points and 9.5 rebounds as a sophomore. He shot nearly 39 percent from 3-point range. He posted the second-most Win Shares for Iowa (3.4), despite not even playing half of most games. His frame (6-8, 215) recommends him as a bonafide pro wing prospect, too. It’s not too far a cry from the evaluation one might have made about Keegan a year ago, after he posted 7.2 points in 18 minutes a game as a freshman. So could it be that simple? Could Iowa’s torch-pass go from Luka Garza to Keegan Murray to Kris Murray without a hitch? Or does 2022-23 unfold more like humdrum development from an unknown prospect into a nice basketball piece? Whatever shape Kris Murray’s third year takes, and how he handles having the spotlight all to himself, will have significant on- and off-court ramifications.
12. Nolan Hickman and Hunter Sallis, Gonzaga
No apologies for taking the easy way out here. You try to decide which one of the former top 30 guards is the more critical variable for the Zags, who have few unknowns otherwise. The freshman-season results were nearly identical. Both Hickman and Sallis appeared in 32 games without a start. Hickman averaged 5.1 points per night. Sallis averaged 4.3. Neither was a difference-maker in February and March. Should Mark Few go with a very big starting lineup, maybe both sophomore guards come off the bench yet again. That also might leave the Zags without a true backcourt distributor on the floor at tipoff (neither Rasir Bolton nor Malachi Smith have averaged even three assists per game over their careers) and maybe a defensive mismatch at the four, depending on how you rate Anton Watson’s ability to guard on the perimeter. So perhaps either Hickman or Sallis needs to emerge as a starter just for the sake of rotation balance and maximizing the skills of the presumptive Gonzaga nucleus. They also have the profiles of possible “sophomore leap” dudes. One probably must make such a leap to ensure Few and Co. have the quality depth required to make a run at a Final Four.
11. Harrison Ingram, Stanford
The pursuit to identify Sophomore Leap Guys, and then brag about how smart we were at the end of the season, brings us to Palo Alto. And, at the risk of being glib, to the question of how much anyone will notice either way. Ingram’s pedigree (consensus No. 16 recruit in the Class of ’21) and raw production and experience (13.5 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists per 40 minutes and 995 total minutes logged as a freshman) cut the requisite profile. The efficiency maybe doesn’t. Ingram’s effective field goal rate of 44.6 percent and offensive rating (98.7 per KenPom.com) were middling. But Jaden Ivey’s freshman year eFG was 44.5 percent. Johnny Davis’ freshman year offensive rating was 99.1. You can piece together an argument that Ingram’s numbers aren’t prohibitive of a jump. You can also deem Keegan Murray a more apt player comparison, and Murray looked much better in much less time (55.4 eFG, 119.4 offensive rating) in his first year. Ingram could land anywhere along the spectrum, from All-American to Just Another Inconspicuous Pac-12 Guy. If it’s the former, will enough people see it happen to generate national buzz? If it’s the latter, is the program bound for another anodyne .500-ish season and some upheaval once it’s done?
10. Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
The Hoosiers are a Big Ten favorite in Mike Woodson’s second season. The Hoosiers also ranked 200th nationally in 3-point accuracy a year ago, precipitating an adjusted offensive efficiency (107.0) that ranked 95th in the country. Many of the same people who contributed to that effort are back, and they’re all old, which prompts the question of how much better you actually can expect old college players to get, and how much that impacts Indiana’s ability to in fact win the league. Jalen Hood-Schifino, however, is not old. He is a five-star freshman guard with a Big Ten-ready frame (6-6, 215) who should be able to create his own offense but also facilitate and, generally, alleviate the burden on others simply by being another viable threat. As for helping Indiana beyond the arc … well, best we can tell, in 18 games against high school competition, Hood-Schifino shot 27 percent from 3-point range for Monteverde Academy in 2021-22. That’s not overly auspicious. If he’s a better distance shooter than that, as Indiana’s staff would have us believe, he may not alone solve one of the glaring complications for this group. But it’d be a pretty big help.
9. GG Jackson, South Carolina
The No. 1 prospect in the Class of 2023 is, in fact, now a freshman at a college he did not originally plan to attend. Reclassification is entirely normalized by now, so the curiosity here lies in the particulars, rather than a kid deciding to hit fast-forward on his NBA Draft eligibility. Jackson was North Carolina-bound before the change of plans, and nobody turns their backs on the Tar Heels. (Seriously. Jackson is the program’s first decommitment in almost two decades.) At least tangentially, his (likely) one season of college basketball will be framed by what he could have done to turbo-boost the early stages of Hubert Davis’ tenure, and by any residual ire or schadenfreude in Chapel Hill. More tangibly? Jackson doesn’t turn 18 until December. He’s playing in his home state. His coach hasn’t called a play for the Gamecocks yet. And he’s projected as a top 10 pick — the kind of valuation any kid wants desperately to protect. These are very combustible variables. The possibilities range from revelation to we’ve-seen-this-movie-before irrelevance — or some of both, if Jackson is great but his greatness does nothing for the program.
Tyrese Hunter’s move from Iowa State to Big 12 rival Texas created headlines. (Jeff Hanisch / USA Today)
8. Tyrese Hunter, Texas
Well, Hunter got what he wanted, and these days we’re well beyond begrudging players for going after what they want. The reigning Big 12 freshman of the year wants to be a pro. Naturally. He believes one of the ways a 6-2 point guard becomes a pro is playing with highly talented big men. He wasn’t sure that would happen at Iowa State, so he looked for a place where that might happen, and deemed Texas to be that place. The NIL opportunities probably didn’t hurt matters, either, but surely even Hunter understands that the NIL well dries up quick if the basketball success doesn’t endure. (If he doesn’t, perhaps Chris Beard will hit that talking point a couple times.) But where Hunter would have set world records for usage rate and taken every big shot in Ames, he now has to fit with Marcus Carr as a starting tandem and also produce at a high rate in fewer minutes, theoretically, given the backcourt depth in Austin. Be careful what you wish for? Or will the change of scenery be everything Hunter desires?
7. Jarace Walker, Houston
Spend any time talking with Kelvin Sampson about shooting, and shooters with green lights, and how he imbues those green-light shooters with confidence, and you’ll probably hear some variation of the following: We tell them just shoot it, Houston’s coach will say, and we’ll go get the rebound if you miss. Usually, the guys getting the rebounds are bigs with some ability … but mostly they’re there to be big and defend and rebound misses. They’re not centerpieces. But what if one was? Or at least looked like he could be, when needed? How does that alter the trajectory of Houston’s basketball ascent? This dynamic plays out in 2022-23, starring Walker, a 6-8 five-star freshman with the potential to board like a big (8.2 rebounds per game for IMG Academy as a senior) but the talent to fill out the other parts of a box score. He’s an enhanced version of the kind of frontcourt player Houston already has made a Final Four with. He’s also emblematic of the next step for the Cougars, who are Big 12-bound soon enough. Signing a five-star recruit, at Houston, is a big deal. If that recruit is coached up well enough and performs at a high level, maybe he begets more five-star recruits. That’s different. That’s an even bigger deal.
6. Keyonte George, Baylor
For those who missed the GLOBL JAM in July — when you look back, did you really have anything better to do? — the highest-ranked freshman in program history led Baylor in scoring with 22.8 points per game, including a 37-point piano dropped on the head of Team Canada in the event semifinals. This begat a whole new set of serious questions about Keyonte George. Could he be the best freshman in the country in 2022-23? Could he be the most important freshman in the country, if he seamlessly assumes an alpha or co-alpha role for a national championship contender? Could George crash the first-team All-America squad? Could he make a run at a top-five slot in the NBA Draft? (The Athletic’s first mock has George at No. 8.) A lot of those answers might be relative to the performance of the player at No. 3 on this list, who has a similar profile and similar role for a similarly auspicious team. But here’s guessing George will be one of the most dynamic scorers in college hoops, no juxtaposition necessary. If so, he’ll be worth a look anytime you can set eyes on him.
5. Caleb Love, North Carolina
Is Dramamine an option for an NIL partnership? Has anyone looked into this? The Caleb Love Experience is not unlike a reverse bungee ride. Reach amazing heights! (Thirty against UCLA in the Sweet 16! A spine-tingling 28 against Duke in the Final Four!) And, well, try to focus on that and not the harrowing recoil. (Five points against Baylor, missing 19 of 24 shots in the national championship game, and so forth.) It’s actually kind of fun when the team is upending everyone’s expectations, and the thrill is not knowing what the deuce may happen next. Perhaps not so much when the squad is a potential preseason No. 1 with legitimate national title aspirations. How often the good version of Caleb Love manifests, how much North Carolina’s improved depth helps this happen, how much Love thinks he needs to do to secure a future at the next level … it all makes for easily the most combustible element, for better or worse, in Chapel Hill this season.
4. Dariq Whitehead, Duke
Maybe the consensus No. 2 recruit in the country is on this list regardless of the events of Aug. 29, 2022. Top wing prospect in the nation + heavy minutes for a preseason top 10 team + Jon Scheyer’s first season = more than enough to recommend your attention. But then Aug. 29 happened. A fractured right foot entered the aforementioned equation. Foot injuries? Generally not great, what with basketball requiring people to run and jump a lot. Whitehead instantly became a high-leverage question mark for a rotation that didn’t need more unknowns. Whitehead’s presence is guaranteed — assuming Duke’s news release was correct in announcing that the 6-6 freshman will, in fact, play once he’s fully rehabbed — but little else is. When will he return, and when can Duke realistically expect him to be at peak capacity? It’s the variable that may well define Scheyer’s debut campaign.
3. Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas
None of the nation’s top 20 freshmen carry a bigger burden from the jump than Smith, the No. 3 prospect in his class. It’s not that the Razorbacks are bereft. But the roster upheaval and urgency to replace four double-digit scorers is real and significant. The 6-4 Smith is the No. 4 pick in The Athletic’s first NBA mock draft for 2023. He has to perform accordingly if Arkansas’ results are to land in the vicinity of expectations. After all, we’re old enough to remember when Arkansas was regarded as a potential preseason No. 1. The fan base hasn’t relented in its belief, even if that won’t come to pass; there’s a strain of belief that Arkansas is on the cusp of SEC dominance. While that might be a bit of a stretch … viewing this as a moment for the Razorbacks isn’t. The league is somewhat in flux but will start to catch up. Arkansas has momentum and must keep it. Nick Smith is the most important variable in doing so in 2022-23. That’s what he walks into.
2. Baylor Scheierman, Creighton
The top player in The Athletic’s transfer portal tracker. Sixth in the nation in 2021-22 with 4.7 offensive Win Shares. An offensive rating of 124.9 that ranked fifth nationally among players who used 20 or more percent of his team’s offensive possessions. A points-plus-assists-per-possession rate of 1.435, good for the 99th percentile nationally. That guy plugs into Greg McDermott’s offense … precisely when needed. As much as Creighton’s potency and creativity is duly praised, its adjusted offensive rating in 2021-22 (105.9) was its lowest, by far, since it joined the Big East. So this is not simply about wondering if the 6-7 Scheierman’s production translates at a higher level; it absolutely must, if the Bluejays are to return to form on that end of the floor. For anyone believing Creighton is equipped to ascend to the top of the conference and make the deepest NCAA Tournament run in program history … you’re not necessarily wrong. But first things first. The player who grew up two hours west of Omaha and bloomed late must deliver on the hype.
1. Zach Edey, Purdue
What would it look like if the most outrageous physical specimen in men’s college basketball played more than half the time? We’re about to find out. After two seasons in a timeshare, the 7-4, 285-pound Edey will assume the bulk of Purdue’s center minutes and put prorated statistics to the ultimate test. To review: Edey posted per-40-minute averages of 30.3 points and 16.2 rebounds as a sophomore. He only actually averaged 19 minutes of floor time, of course, and how his frame and cardio and production hold up to a substantially greater pounding will be fascinating. (Foul trouble is always a factor, too, but Edey averaged 4.2 fouls per 40 minutes as a sophomore, two less than he did as a freshman. So that might be trending toward less of a concern.) Earlier this year, when I asked Matt Painter if Edey could be a 30-minutes-a-night guy, Purdue’s coach answered unambiguously: “Sure.” Last season, in less than half the available minutes, Edey’s 5.4 Win Shares led a Boilermakers squad that also featured a future NBA Draft lottery pick. No pro-rating required to interpret what that portends. If everyone is right, and Edey is more than ready for more, the night-to-night numbers could be giant.
(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos: Michael Allio / Icon Sportswire, Mitchell Layton / Getty)
