Jaire Alexander #23 of the Green Bay Packers reacts after breaking up a pass against Amon-Ra St. Brown #14 of the Detroit Lions during the first half at Lambeau Field on September 20, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
The Green Bay Packers got the hard part out of the way in Week 16; upsetting the Miami Dolphins in South Florida and now return home for two divisional matchups with a shot to sneak into the postseason.
They’ll welcome in the Minnesota Vikings who throttled them by a 23-7 score at the start of the season in Minneapolis. The Vikings were favorites in that Week 1 matchup, but despite the better record of 12-3 to Green Bay’s 7-8, it’s the Packers who are clear favorites this time around.
Here’s how Vegas projects this week’s matchup from Lambeau Field:
Vikings vs. Packers Odds, Spread and Total
Vikings vs. Packers Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 11-0 straight up (SU) as a betting favorite this season, and 14-0 in their last 14 games as a favorite. They’re also 11-0 in one possession games in 2022. However, as an underdog, the Vikings are just 1-3-0 against the spread (ATS) with a ATS +/- of -12.0, and margin of victory of -15.5.
- Aaron Rodgers over the course of his career is 15-12-0 ATS vs. the Vikings, but 9-3-0 ATS vs. Minnesota at Lambeau Field, 8-3-0 ATS as a home favorite, and 6-3-0 ATS as a favorite of 3-points or more. He’s also looking to win five consecutive games for the 11th time in his career
Vikings vs. Packers Prediction and Pick
There’s something to be said for how the Vikings continue to win close games. When you’re 11-0 in single possession matchups over the course of the season, it’s ok to acknowledge good coaching and timely plays as an element for success.
It’s also ok to recognize that there’s an element of luck as well, and the Vikings are due for some serious regression.
Minnesota, despite their 12-3 record rank in the bottom 10 of Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings while Green Bay comes in just outside the top 10.
Furthermore, Minnesota is in a very exclusive club, but certainly not a prestigious one, with the lowest point differential of any 12-3 by a massive margin.
I can both respect the Vikings’ remarkable accomplishments this season, marvel at their success as favorites, and also fade the heck out of them in Green Bay this weekend and road dogs.
Follow all of Ben’s betting plays in real-time HERE!
—
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
