Football is a job that only a select few athletes ever get to experience at the professional level. The average career span for an NFL player is just 3.3 years. However, some players manage to carve out long-lasting careers, defying the odds and staying relevant well beyond the league average. In these veteran TE projections, we’ll focus on players who have played eight or more seasons in the NFL. We will analyze some fantasy football trends that emerge from their extended careers. We’ve reviewed data from the past 10 years to identify patterns. Next up is the tight end position who hold the 2nd-longest tenure among the position.
Veteran TE Projections | Average FPPG Experience
The Elite TE1 Season
| Fantasy Year | Players | TE Finish | FPPG | Experience | Games Played | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs | Target Share | Red zone tgts | Quarterback | Prior TE1 Season |
| 2024 | George Kittle | 1 | 13.2 | 8 | 15 | 94 | 78 | 1106 | 8 | 22 | 21 | Brock Purdy | Yes |
| 2017 | Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 13.8 | 8 | 14 | 105 | 69 | 1084 | 8 | 22.6 | 22 | Tom Brady | Yes |
| 2020 | Travis Kelce | 1 | 17.4 | 8 | 15 | 145 | 105 | 1416 | 11 | 25.1 | 23 | Patrick Mahomes | Yes |
| 2022 | Travis Kelce | 1 | 15.4 | 10 | 17 | 152 | 110 | 1338 | 12 | 24.9 | 30 | Patrick Mahomes | Yes |
| 2023 | Travis Kelce | 1 | 11.5 | 11 | 15 | 121 | 93 | 984 | 5 | 22.7 | 21 | Patrick Mahomes | Yes |
| 2021 | Travis Kelce | 2 | 13.6 | 9 | 16 | 134 | 92 | 1125 | 9 | 22.3 | 16 | Patrick Mahomes | Yes |
| 2015 | Delanie Walker | 3 | 13.2 | 10 | 15 | 133 | 94 | 1088 | 6 | 26.2 | 16 | Marcus Mariota | Yes |
| 2021 | Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 89 | 55 | 802 | 6 | 17.2 | 12 | Tom Brady | Yes |
| 2016 | Greg Olsen | 4 | 10.5 | 10 | 16 | 129 | 80 | 1073 | 3 | 23.4 | 16 | Cam Newton | Yes |
| 2017 | Jimmy Graham | 5 | 8.9 | 8 | 16 | 96 | 57 | 520 | 10 | 18.1 | 26 | Russell Wilson | Yes |
| Average | 13.0 | 9.3 | 15.1 | 119.8 | 83.3 | 1053.6 | 7.8 | 22.5 | 20.3 |
Key Takeaways
- Volume is key
- Target Share
- Veteran QB Presence
In the tight end landscape, there is a clear distinction between the truly elite veterans and everyone else. These are the players who finish Top 5 in fantasy points per game (FPPG), even in the later stages of their careers.
The biggest takeaway from the data is simple: volume is king. Of the 10 veteran TE1 seasons in this sample, 7 included at least 1,000 receiving yards. The only player to hit 1,000 yards without finishing as a TE1 was Greg Olsen in 2015, when he still managed to land as TE6. If you want your aging tight end to stay fantasy-relevant, hitting the 1,000-yard mark is almost a requirement.
The Exceptions
There were a few exceptions. Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce each had TE1 seasons below 1,000 yards, but both missed games—and had they played a full 16- or 17-game schedule, they likely would’ve crossed the milestone. The lone true outlier was Jimmy Graham, who posted just 500 yards in 1 season, but salvaged value with 10 touchdowns—sneaking into the top 5 in FPPG.
Defining Factors
Target share was another defining factor. Across these elite seasons, the tight ends averaged a 22.5% target share. In fact, 8 of the 10 elite seasons hit at least 22%, with the only exceptions being (again) Gronkowski and Graham. Interestingly, some tight ends like Delanie Walker, Greg Olsen, and Travis Kelce hit that 22% mark and still fell just short of a Top 5 finish, simply because the production above them was historic. For a veteran tight end to truly be elite, expect that 22%+ target share threshold.
QB Connection
One more trend stands out: the quarterback connection. The old saying goes, “a rookie quarterback’s best friend is the tight end.” But for elite, late-career TEs, that simply hasn’t been the case. Of the 38 veteran TE1 seasons analyzed, only 4 came with rookie quarterbacks. The most notable pairing was Delanie Walker with Marcus Mariota. And when those seasons did occur, the rookies almost always had some degree of mobility in their game names like Jayden Daniels, Mariota, Drake Maye, and Dak Prescott.
Other Stats to Note:
- No TE with 12 or more years of experience had a top 5 fantasy season.
- All these TEs would have prior fantasy success, finishing as a TE1 in past seasons.
- We’ve had at least one of these veteran tight ends finish top 5 in FPPG in each of the last 5 seasons.
Other TE1 seasons
| Fantasy Year | Players | TE Finish | FPPG | Experience | Games Played | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs | Target Share | Red zone tgts | Quarterbacks | Prior TE1 Season |
| 2015 | Greg Olsen | 6 | 11.8 | 9 | 16 | 124 | 77 | 1104 | 7 | 25.1 | 19 | Cam Newton | Yes |
| 2018 | Jared Cook | 6 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 101 | 68 | 896 | 6 | 19 | 15 | Derek Carr | No |
| 2024 | Jonnu Smith | 6 | 10.5 | 8 | 17 | 111 | 88 | 884 | 8 | 20 | 19 | Tua Tagovailoa | No |
| 2016 | Delanie Walker | 7 | 10.4 | 11 | 15 | 102 | 65 | 800 | 7 | 22.3 | 17 | Marcus Mariota | Yes |
| 2019 | Jared Cook | 8 | 10.4 | 11 | 14 | 65 | 43 | 705 | 9 | 13.5 | 10 | Drew Brees | Yes |
| 2018 | Rob Gronkowski | 8 | 8.3 | 9 | 13 | 72 | 47 | 682 | 3 | 16.1 | 8 | Tom Brady | Yes |
| 2024 | Travis Kelce | 8 | 9.2 | 12 | 16 | 133 | 97 | 823 | 3 | 24.1 | 26 | Patrick Mahomes | Yes |
| 2015 | Benjamin Watson | 9 | 9.6 | 11 | 16 | 110 | 74 | 825 | 6 | 16.5 | 18 | Drew Brees | No |
| 2024 | Zach Ertz | 10 | 8.5 | 12 | 17 | 91 | 66 | 763 | 5 | 18.1 | 20 | Jayden Daniels | Yes |
| 2017 | Jason Witten | 12 | 7.2 | 14 | 16 | 87 | 63 | 560 | 5 | 18 | 13 | Dak Prescott | Yes |
| 2016 | Martellus Bennett | 12 | 8.8 | 9 | 16 | 73 | 55 | 701 | 7 | 13.3 | 11 | Tom Brady | Yes |
| 2021 | Zach Ertz | 12 | 8.5 | 9 | 17 | 112 | 74 | 654 | 7 | 19.3 | 18 | Mixed | Yes |
| Average | 9.4 | 10.4 | 15.8 | 98.4 | 68.1 | 783.1 | 6.1 | 18.8 | 16.2 |
If you play fantasy football, you know a Top 5 tight end season can look very different from the rest of the TE1 group. The drop-off is usually steep. For example, while the top tight ends can push close to 1,000 yards, the average for the lower TE1s falls closer to 783 yards. The key takeaway is that even with the decline in yardage, these players typically still average 8–10 fantasy points per game. They won’t lose you a week, but they usually won’t win it either.
This tier often features late-career breakouts. Players like Jared Cook, Jonnu Smith, and Ben Watson all produced TE1 fantasy seasons after their 7th year in the league. A big factor? Volume. Each of them saw at least 100 targets, and notably, they were paired with pocket-passing quarterbacks rather than mobile QBs.
Interestingly, we also see a handful of tight ends produce TE1 seasons deep into their careers. In fact, 7 of the 11 seasons in this sample came from players with 10+ years of experience. In 2024 alone, both Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz turned in TE1 production in their 12th seasons. Even Jason Witten in year 14 gave fantasy managers a TE1 finish.
TE2 – Some Impact
| Fantasy Year | Players | TE Finish | FPPG | Experience | Games Played | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs | Target Share | Red zone Tgts | Quarterback | Prior TE1 Production |
| 2016 | Antonio Gates | 13 | 8.7 | 14 | 14 | 93 | 53 | 548 | 7 | 20.6 | 22 | Philip Rivers | Yes |
| 2019 | Greg Olsen | 13 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 82 | 52 | 597 | 2 | 15.5 | 13 | Kyle Allen | Yes |
| 2018 | Kyle Rudolph | 13 | 7.5 | 8 | 16 | 82 | 64 | 634 | 4 | 13.7 | 15 | Kirk Cousins | Yes |
| 2017 | Benjamin Watson | 14 | 6.7 | 13 | 16 | 79 | 61 | 522 | 4 | 14.1 | 13 | Joe Flacco | Yes |
| 2020 | Rob Gronkowski | 14 | 7.9 | 10 | 16 | 77 | 45 | 623 | 7 | 12.7 | 17 | Tom Brady | Yes |
| 2023 | Hunter Henry | 15 | 7.1 | 8 | 14 | 61 | 42 | 419 | 6 | 13.6 | 6 | Mac Jones | Yes |
| 2019 | Jason Witten | 16 | 6.8 | 16 | 16 | 83 | 63 | 529 | 4 | 14.4 | 10 | Dak Prescott | Yes |
| 2024 | Hunter Henry | 17 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 97 | 66 | 674 | 2 | 20.8 | 18 | Drake Maye | Yes |
| 2021 | Jared Cook | 18 | 6.8 | 13 | 16 | 83 | 48 | 564 | 4 | 13.3 | 13 | Justin Herbert | Yes |
| 2015 | Jason Witten | 18 | 7.9 | 12 | 16 | 104 | 77 | 713 | 3 | 20 | 13 | Matt Cassel | Yes |
| 2020 | Jimmy Graham | 18 | 7.4 | 11 | 16 | 76 | 50 | 456 | 8 | 12.8 | 21 | Mitch Trubisky | Yes |
| 2023 | Logan Thomas | 18 | 6.2 | 8 | 16 | 78 | 55 | 496 | 4 | 13.8 | 9 | Sam Howell | Yes |
| 2017 | Vernon Davis | 18 | 6.3 | 12 | 16 | 69 | 43 | 648 | 3 | 12.7 | 9 | Kirk Cousins | Yes |
| 2020 | Jared Cook | 19 | 7.3 | 12 | 15 | 60 | 37 | 504 | 7 | 12.5 | 15 | Drew Brees | Yes |
| 2016 | Jason Witten | 19 | 7.4 | 13 | 16 | 95 | 69 | 673 | 3 | 20.6 | 18 | Dak Prescott | Yes |
| 2018 | Jimmy Graham | 20 | 6.4 | 9 | 16 | 89 | 55 | 636 | 2 | 14.7 | 10 | Aaron Rodgers | Yes |
| Average | 7.2 | 11.3 | 15.6 | 81.8 | 55.0 | 577.3 | 4.4 | 15.4 | 13.9 |
The TE2 range in fantasy football drops off significantly, to the point where many of them may not even be worth starting on a weekly basis. On average, these tight ends put up around 577 yards and 4.4 touchdowns per season which isn’t start-worthy production.
This is also the tier where we find veteran tight ends who don’t give up on their NFL careers. Out of the 16 tight ends in this range, 9 have 12-or-more years of experience. While these players may lack true upside, they can still serve as reliable bench depth or bye-week fill ins for fantasy rosters
2025 Veteran WR Projections
Welcome to Year 8
Mark Andrews | The TD Machine
Our first Year 8 member is Mark Andrews. The Ravens’ tight end has been a steady fantasy option throughout his career, but in recent years he’s also been a bit of a headache for fantasy managers. Andrews hasn’t truly lived up to his breakout 2021 season when he posted 1,300 yards and 9 touchdowns. Over the last 3 seasons, he has combined for 2,064 receiving yards—solid, but not elite.
It’s hard to see Andrews climbing back into the top-5 tight end tier unless he suddenly sees a huge spike in yardage, which seems unlikely given he has only topped 1,000 yards once in his career. What continues to prop up his fantasy value is touchdown production: he has scored at least 7 TDs in 4 of his first 7 seasons. With Isaiah Likely recovering from injury, Andrews should retain a strong role in the Ravens’ passing game.
The best comparison might be 2019 Jared Cook, who finished with around 700 yards but 9 touchdowns. That kind of outcome would keep Andrews in the low-end TE1 mix, though his upside is capped due to target share concerns.
Dallas Goedert | The Forgotten TE
Dallas Goedert has had some tough luck during his time in Philadelphia. The talent is there for him to be in the same conversation as George Kittle or Travis Kelce, but the Eagles’ offense simply doesn’t funnel targets to the tight end the same way. Since the start of the Jalen Hurts era, Goedert’s yardage totals have dipped year over year, and he’s managed just 12 touchdowns over the last 4 seasons.
The upside is real, but his ceiling is capped by playing behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. In fact, four of Goedert’s five best career games came when either Brown or Smith was sidelined. That means if Brown’s recent injury lingers, Goedert could see a temporary fantasy boost.
The issue is consistency. We’ve yet to see Goedert sustain high-end production over a full season. For 2025, the most realistic expectation is that he’ll settle in as a borderline TE1 or high-end TE2 capable of spike weeks, but unlikely to deliver elite volume.
Other Year 8 TEs to Mention (Potential TE2s)
Mike Gesicki: He’s coming off his best year since 2021, but with the addition of Noah Fant and young receivers stepping up, Gesicki could take a backseat in targets and production.
Dalton Schultz: Schultz has not lived up to his 2021 season, and now the Texans have young receivers looking to step up and make an impact in the passing game.
Tyler Conklin: Conklin has been a solid TE2 in fantasy, and I don’t expect an uptick in production now with the Chargers. He should remain a solid bye week replacement.
The Elite Year 9 TEs
George Kittle | No One Works Harder TE
George Kittle is the headliner of this strong Year 9 class, and he’s the only member of the group who managed to finish as an elite TE1 in fantasy last season. When compared to the average production of other top-tier tight ends, Kittle actually came in slightly below in most categories. Part of the reason he finished as high as he did was of course talent but also that the 2024 season was a weak tight end fantasy year. Like Mark Andrews, Kittle has failed to get over 100-targets since 2019, but the big difference is his efficiency. Over the last 2 seasons, he has averaged 14.9 yards per reception, showcasing his big-play ability. He has also topped 1,000 yards in back-to-back years, something Andrews hasn’t matched recently.
The 49ers offense remains uncertain in terms of who will be the true top pass-catching option, which could actually benefit Kittle if he remains a focal point. Historically, only one Year 9 tight end Travis Kelce has finished inside the top 5, but Kittle has a realistic chance to follow that path, even if he doesn’t see Kelce’s 134-target workload.
As long as he can stay healthy enough to play 15 or more games, Kittle should remain in the elite TE1 conversation for 2025.
David Njoku | The Upside TE
David Njoku just missed the data cutoff (12 games played) with only 11 appearances, but in those games he averaged elite TE1 production on a per-game basis. He was on a historic pace for receptions and touchdowns last year, flashing the kind of ceiling fantasy managers have been waiting on for most of his career.
For years, Njoku had never truly put together a complete season, but over the last 2 years he’s flirted with top-5 production. Good news for Njoku is that Joe Flacco will start Week 1 of the season. His chemistry with Flacco in late 2023 was especially impressive in just 5 games, Njoku posted 385 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Looking ahead to 2025, Cleveland’s passing competition has shifted enough that Njoku could realistically lead the team in targets if he stays healthy for a full season. The downside is tied to quarterback volatility if the Browns move on from Flacco and turn to one of their rookies midseason, Njoku’s production could suffer. Another variable is rookie Harold Fannin Jr. and the type of role he will have. The most reasonable expectation is that Njoku lands as a mid-to-low TE1 with upside if he maintains the same target volume and touchdown rate he flashed last season.
Evan Engram | The New Joker
We move over to Denver’s newest pass catcher, Evan Engram. Sean Payton referred to Engram as a “joker” player someone who can line up in multiple spots and create mismatches. Payton also has a strong track record of utilizing tight ends from his days in New Orleans, having coached productive seasons out of Jimmy Graham, Ben Watson, and Jared Cook.
Engram’s biggest challenge throughout his career has been staying healthy, and even when available, touchdowns have kept him from reaching elite fantasy status as he hasn’t topped 4 scores in a season since 2018. What he does bring is consistent volume: he has logged 98 or more targets in 3 of his last 5 seasons. With Denver lacking a clear second pass catcher behind Courtland Sutton, Engram has a real chance to slide into that role.
A fair comparison is the 2024 version of Travis Kelce, who posted strong volume and yardage numbers (around 800 yards) but didn’t deliver in the touchdown department. That’s been Engram’s profile for most of his career, and it’s unlikely to change now. For 2025, Engram carries low-end TE1 potential, especially if he becomes one of Nix’s most trusted targets.
Other Year 8 TEs to Mention (Potential TE2s)
Jonnu Smith: Back with his favorite OC in Pittsburgh, it’s hard to trust Smith will see the high targets we saw in Miami. The upside would need to be touchdowns.
Darren Waller: Didn’t look great before retirement; it’s hard to trust an older player coming off an injury to be a TE1, especially with a healthy Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle back on the field in 2025.
Year 10 TEs
Hunter Henry | The Average TE
The Patriots’ Hunter Henry has been a steady fantasy option throughout his career, averaging around 600 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns per season. Last year, he set career highs in targets, receptions, and yards showing he can still be productive in the right system. Now, Henry enters a different Patriots offense that could help him sustain above-average production once again.
Henry already has some history with Josh McDaniels from their one season together in 2021, when he posted 602 yards and 9 touchdowns, finishing as the TE11 in fantasy points per game. While New England added new offensive weapons like Stefon Diggs and TreVeyon Henderson to absorb some of the target share, Henry’s role in the passing attack should remain secure.
He has never consistently shown elite TE1 upside, but projecting him as a borderline TE1/high-end TE2 is realistic, especially with the Patriots trending upward in 2025. A reasonable comparison for his floor might be Jimmy Graham’s 2020 season (456 yards and 8 TDs), which sets a solid baseline for Henry’s potential output this year.
Tyler Higbee | The Underrated TE
Tyler Higbee is always a tricky tight end to evaluate. He’s been a reliable player throughout his career, but rarely offers the ceiling fantasy managers want. Over the last 3 seasons, he’s finished as TE14 and TE15 twice, showing steady but unspectacular production.
Last year, Higbee’s season was cut short by an ACL injury late in 2024, limiting him to just 3 games in which he posted 66 yards and a touchdown. Returning from that injury adds some uncertainty to his 2025 outlook.
In the Rams offense, Higbee will remain firmly behind Davante Adams and Puka Nacua in the target pecking order. At best, he profiles as the third option if Matthew Stafford can stay healthy for the full season, a big “if” given Stafford’s recent injury history. The problem is that touchdowns have been rare for Higbee in recent years, capping his fantasy upside.
Overall, Higbee is best viewed as a steady depth piece who can deliver TE2 numbers. His upside likely tops out as a high-end TE2, making him more of a safe, floor option than a league-winning play.
One last Ride
Travis Kelce | The Actor
You can’t talk about tight ends without mentioning Travis Kelce. He has been the standard at the position for nearly a decade, landing in the elite TE tier four different times in his later seasons. Last year was the first time in a long stretch that Kelce didn’t finish as a top-5 fantasy tight end. Even so, he still saw 133 targets and put up over 800 yards, though his touchdown production dipped compared to past years.
The Chiefs offense looks a little different now, with emerging weapons like Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Jalen Royals. The big question for 2025 is whether Kelce remains Patrick Mahomes’ top option or if his role shifts as the team diversifies its passing attack. Reports suggest Kelce has slimmed down this offseason, which could help him regain some speed and continue creating mismatches.
History isn’t on his side—only one tight end (Jason Witten in 2017) has finished as a TE1 in his 12th season or later. But Kelce is no ordinary tight end. If he can stay above 100 targets, another TE1 finish is well within reach. His realistic floor looks something like 2015 Jason Witten around 700 yards and 3 touchdowns, a high-end TE2. His ceiling, however, is still borderline top 5 at the position if Kansas City’s passing attack clicks and touchdowns bounce back.
Zach Ertz | Old Reliable
Our last tight end is Commanders veteran Zach Ertz. After 3 uneven seasons in Arizona, Ertz found new life in Washington and bounced back with a TE1 finish last year, posting 763 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Like Travis Kelce, the data doesn’t historically favor tight ends entering Year 13 when it comes to elite fantasy production. Still, Ertz has a path to relevance in 2025. The Commanders’ receiving depth is thin with Terry McLaurin’s contract situation still unresolved, and Ertz has already shown strong chemistry with second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels. That connection could help him remain a steady option.
The key factor will be how the target share shakes out for Ertz. His usage last year aligned more with TE2 value, but efficiency helped push him into the TE1 ranks. The Ben Sinnott trusters may say differently but he hasn’t stood out in preseason all that much. A safe projection for 2025 is that Ertz hovers around the TE12–TE13 range, making him a strong backup or streaming option who could flirt with back-end TE1 value if the targets are there.
ICYMI: Veteran WR Projections
If you enjoyed these veteran TE projections, make sure to read the rest of the veteran projections series by Steven Pintado.
