Entering its second straight Final Four, No. 1 overall seed UConn rolls into Phoenix looking like an unstoppable force. The Huskies own 10 consecutive double-digit NCAA Tournament wins – including a 25-point Elite Eight drubbing of potent Illinois that included an unfathomable 30-0 run. Alabama, with its own outstanding offense, hopes to deliver enough perimeter points to stay close. The Crimson Tide won’t be fazed by UConn after already eliminating No. 1 seed North Carolina during the Sweet 16. Continuing its quest for potential back-to-back national titles, the Huskies enter Saturday’s second national semifinal as double-digit favorites.
UConn is playing complete basketball through four tournament wins. Increasingly confident center Donovan Clingan is averaging a double-double with solid rim protection this tournament (15.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.5 blocks) despite playing only 23 minutes per game.
A sluggish offensive game by the 7-foot-2 Clingan or All-American guard Tristen Newton won’t hinder the nation’s most efficient offense (per KenPom) if multiple starters score in double figures. Ample scoring contributions from Cam Spencer, Stephon Castle and Alex Karaban mean the Huskies haven’t faced real adversity through two weekends.
Prolific offense carried Alabama to its first Final Four. The nation’s top-scoring offense this season produced at least 89 points in three of four NCAA Tournament wins.
Letting its No. 9 tempo run loose, strong perimeter shotmaking is the backbone of Alabama’s offense. The Crimson Tide made 48 3-pointers on 41 percent shooting through four wins this tournament – including 10 second-half 3-pointers to advance in the Elite Eight. The hot hand of senior point guard Mark Sears accounted for 17 of those tournament triples. The lefty floor general averaged 24.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists to earn Most Outstanding Player honors in the West Regional.
To keep the game close, Alabama needs to maintain its powerful offense against a stifling UConn defense. Spanning the last two tournaments, UConn’s defense hasn’t allowed an opponent to score over 65 points.
In a battle of tempos, the Huskies prefer to play their No. 315 tempo over Alabama’s preferred track meet. Even if the Crimson Tide plays fast, their defense still needs to play a complete game. Alabama is in the bottom-third in the nation in forcing turnovers (No. 291) and allowing offensive rebounds (No. 272), two inconsistent defensive traits UConn could take full advantage of on Saturday.
What: Final Four
Tipoff time: 8:49 p.m. ET Saturday
TV: TBS
Location: Glendale, Ariz.
UConn vs. Alabama odds
Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.
Expert picks
UConn vs. Alabama projected score
Our “numbers guy,” Austin Mock, uses advanced statistical models and simulations to project the outcome of each game in the tournament. Based on 1 million simulations of the men’s 2024 NCAA Tournament, here are Austin’s projections for the point spread and total:
Projected point spread: UConn by 9 points
Projected total points: 161
Projected final score: UConn 85, Alabama 76
Players to watch
UConn
- Tristen Newton, graduate guard, first-team All-Big East
- Cam Spencer, graduate guard, first-team All-Big East
- Donovan Clingan, sophomore center, honorable mention All-Big East
Alabama
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(Photo of Dan Hurley and Alex Karaban: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
