Juan Soto is not having a great start to the season or as a Met. Sure, he’s $765 million richer, still walking at an elite rate, scoring a lot of runs, and stealing bases at a greater frequency than expected. But in terms of HR, AVG, and OPS—three big drivers in many leagues—Soto has largely come up flat.
You know this if you’re a Mets fan, if you follow Mets Twitter, or if you’re one of the many fantasy managers who used a top 3-5 pick on Soto in drafts this past offseason.
If you’re one of those people, this article is for you. If you’re in a league with a frustrated Soto manager, this article is for you, too.
Let me start with this: while Soto has not been great this season, he’s actually kind of been great.
I know that sounds ridiculous, but two things can be true at the same time in baseball. A player can be doing everything right. And at the same time, it can seem like everything is going wrong. That is because “luck” does exist in baseball. Or variance. Or whatever word best encapsulates the idea that a lot of random stuff in the game contributes to fortunate and unfortunate outcomes for players.
Fortunately for us, there are more tools than ever to determine just how lucky or unlucky players are in a given season. Here is some data I like to use to make such determinations:
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BABIP – to determine if a hitter is getting lucky or unlucky with balls in play HR to FB ratio (HR/FB) – to determine if they are hitting HR at a significantly lower or higher rate than normal (this can be influenced by luck) Exit Velocity (EV) – to determine if their batted ball quality is weak or strong Barrel% – also used to determine weak or strong batted ball quality Swing strike percentage (SwStr%) – to determine if they’re making consistent contact xwOBA – to get a more accurate picture of their expected offensive value based largely on batted ball quality and speed. |
Now, let’s use those stats to look under the hood to gain an understanding of just how unlucky Soto has been this season.
Honestly, not much changed under the hood for Juan Soto this season (see the red in the chart above).
From his swinging-strike percentage (SwStr%), we can see pitchers are no more effective at making him swing and miss. His 6.0 SwStr% is among the best in baseball. While not referenced above, his 17% strikeout rate this season is also equal to his career rate. Both stats indicate he’s not suddenly being exploited or overpowered by certain pitchers or pitch types. He’s still making plenty of contact.
His power is still completely intact as well. Both his EV and Barrel% are above career norms and elite by MLB standards.
Making consistent contact—check.
Hitting with elite contact quality—check.
Hitting the ball with power and authority and making consistent contact are the two most fundamentally important characteristics of a good hitter. Soto has consistently been among the best in baseball in both areas, which has not changed this season.
So what exactly has changed? (See the blue in chart above)
For starters, his luck with balls in play has turned south. Not only is his BABIP a career low, but it is also unsustainably low for a player with his level of contact quality. Nobody making this kind of hard contact should ever have a BABIP closer to .200 than .300. It’s just poor luck.
Additionally, his HR/FB ratio is well below his career rate. While a hitter’s HR/FB can fluctuate year to year, generally speaking you should not see massive fluctuations like we see on the chart. His 2025 rate isn’t awful, but given how consistently he’s smoking the ball (see EV and Barrel% again), it is lower than expected.
Yes, he’s hitting the ball on the ground a bit more this year than last. But he’s had elite seasons with ground ball rates over 50%. And with an elite hitter like Soto, that typically results in a higher HR/FB ratio, not a lower one.
So, Juan Soto has been unlucky with balls in play, which is negatively impacting his batting average, and he’s been unlucky with his HR/FB, which is negatively impacting his HR and power numbers. And that basically tells the tale.
I would expect Soto’s fortunes to turn in the coming weeks and months, especially as the weather warms and he gets more comfortable in a Mets uniform. Then things will start to feel Juan-derful again for Mets fans and fantasy managers alike.
