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The Rays and the art of MLB thrifting

The Rays and the art of MLB thrifting


In the world of Major League Baseball, nobody “thrifts” like the Rays.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been above 25th in MLB payroll rankings just once since 2013 (2022, 24th). The teams they typically share the bottom of the rankings with include the Athletics, Pirates, and Marlins, not exactly the type of company you want to be around.

This low budget is where the minds of Erik Neander — and, to some extent, Kevin Cash — come into play.

Neander (Head of baseball operations since 2018) and Cash (Manager since 2015) have enjoyed plenty of success in their tenure together, with five consecutive winning records, four division titles, and an AL pennant victory in 2020.

In their five year stint together so far, the Rays have a record of 511-359, with only the Braves, Astros, and Dodgers winning more since then.

This didn’t happen by chance for the Rays, and it certainly didn’t happen with pure dollar signs, what Neander and Cash have done is create a franchise that can contend with the big boys, thrifting their way to success by cultivating a winning culture, while spending less than half as much as other franchises.

Finding the right price

Every ‘thrifter’ knows that you have to make purchases knowing exactly where that piece is going to fit. You have to have a plan.

Neander and Cash have done this nearly perfectly.

In 2020, the Rays last World Series appearance, the team saw huge success from young, cheap players. Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, and Austin Meadows made under four million dollars combined that season, and were some of the biggest contributors of that postseason run.

Another hero of the world series for Tampa Bay was Brett Phillips, who will live forever in Rays history with his electric walk-off to tie the series.

Of course, the Rays aren’t the only team that find success from rookies on inexpensive contracts (James Outman of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Evan Carter of the Texas Rangers are recent famous examples). Indeed, major league baseball is built around a system in which young players remain cost-controlled well into their prime years; however, some analysis shows the Rays are getting more bang for their buck than any other ballclub.

By dividing a teams payroll by their total WAR for a season, you get $/WAR, a quick and dirty way to show how much money a team is spending per WAR (lower number = spending less money per WAR, higher number = spending more money per WAR)

Since 2018, the Astros, Braves, and Dodgers (the only three teams with a better record than Tampa in that span) have $/WARs of $3.93, $3.18, and $3.29 respectively. Roughly speaking, these teams are spending $3-4 million dollars per WAR per season.

The Rays? They are a statistical anomaly, at a staggering $1.72 million/WAR since 2018.

Nobody has done more with less than the Tampa Bay Rays

Prioritizing the closet over the item

Even thrifters might sometimes spend more for a truly special item, and the Rays are no different. For example, they signed Zach Eflin last year, and in 2024 he will be their highest paid player, making $11m this year. But usually they seek to spread their money around the roster, offering extensions to key players but with, with no one other than Eflin making more than 10% of the payroll.

That’s one reason they were almost certain to trade Tyler Glasnow; it would have been very out of character for the team to devote a quarter of their payroll to one player, especially one who then signed a five-year, $136.5 million dollar extension once the trade to the Dodgers was official.

This trade was a classic example of what the Rays do. They took two players looking to get paid towards the end of their contracts (Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot) and traded them for young upcoming talent (the Rays received outfielder Johnny DeLuca and pitcher Ryan Pepoit), and specifically young upcoming talent making the league minimum.

Let’s compare: The Astros spent a lot of money towards the top of their roster, with three players making more than 10% of the payroll. The Dodgers are a step below with two players above the 10% mark, and the Braves match Tampa Bay with one player also above 10%.

Tyler Glasnow (20) leaves the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fifth inning in game one of the 2020 World Series at Globe Life Field.
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

This strategy has been effective, as the Rays have been able to navigate inevitable injuries and maintain success with a deep roster.

Take last year as a prime example, as the Rays had four starting pitchers with season ending injuries (Shane Baz was still recovering from an injury in 2022, Jeffery Springs needed Tommy John surgery in April, Drew Rasmussen needed elbow surgery in July, and Shane Mclanahan needed Tommy John surgery in late August).

Despite all these injuries, the Rays still fought their way to 99 wins with the second highest pitching WAR among all major league teams in 2023, doing so with their impressive pitching depth and using inexperienced players like Taj Bradley and sometimes inventing new roles for players like Zack Littell.

Saving or penny pinching?

Thrifting isn’t for everybody, and there is certainly a crowd pushing for the Rays to finally open up the wallet. Many have been critical of this “nickel-and-dime” strategy, saying this approach causes the Rays to lose out on the opportunity to see great players in their prime years in the Trop.

A classic example is the Blake Snell trade in 2022.

Drafted by the Rays in 2011, Snell worked his way up to being the best pitcher in the American League, winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2018. In 2019, he was given a five-year, $50 million contract where he continued to shine, leading the Rays to their second ever world series in the second year of his contract.

Snell would infamously be pulled from game five of the series, and Tampa would go on to lose to the Dodgers, their second World Series loss in franchise history. That offseason, Snell was traded to the San Diego Padres, for Luis Patino, Francisco Mejia, Cole Wilcox, and Blake Hunt.

While these four players never panned out to be what the Rays had hoped, Snell continued to dominate the big leagues, winning another AL Cy Young Award last season in San Diego.

Many fans are frustrated with how this trade panned out, with a large majority of the fanbase feeling like the Rays failed completely on this trade.

The Evan Longoria trade is another one in which the Rays lost a productive player in exchange for four players that never panned out.

Longoria needs no introduction, the Tampa Bay legend is likely the most beloved Ray of all time. Winning multiple Gold Glove awards, consistently being in AL MVP conversations, and giving fans infamous moments like game 162 of the 2011 season, Longoria is the definition of a fan favorite.

In 2018, Longoria was traded to San Francisco right as he was set to make $15 million and more in the final seasons of his contract. In exchange the Rays got Matt Krooks, Stephen Woods, Christian Arroyo, and Denard Span.

Since then, Longoria continued to be a solid contributor for the Giants (and later the World Series bound Diamondbacks), and the Rays got four players who never ended up becoming what they thought, and struggled to replace Longoria’s production at third base for several seasons.

This trade also showcased another flaw with this “thrifting” system that the Rays run, and that’s how hard it is to get fan support when players are never around for long term deals.

No matter whether a trade is successful or not, what’s inevitable is fan heartbreak when their favorite player is traded away after having elite seasons in Tampa Bay.

Conclusion

Whether fans like it or not, the success that Neander and Cash have created in their time together is undeniable.

While many can sit and wonder how much better things would go if certain players never left, it’s clear that Tampa Bay is not keen on changing their style and spending more money than they deem necessary.

“I believe there are none better in baseball,” Rays Owner Stuart Sternberg said after extending Neander and Cash this off-season. “What we’ve accomplished together has been remarkable, and the best is yet to come.”

Whether the Rays can find their way to winning a title on a budget is still in the air, one thing is for sure: Thrifting is an art from, and the Rays are committed to seeing it through to a title.





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