One of the final games of the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament features the TCU Horned Frogs and the Utah State Aggies. TCU is a small favorite in what should be a close matchup.
Utah State made March Madness last year and lost to Missouri in the first round. Coach Ryan Odom left for VCU and new coach Danny Sprinkle had to basically rebuild the roster with transfers and new players. It’s safe to say Aggies fans are impressed with Sprinkle’s first year and now they face a tough TCU team from the Big 12.
The Horned Frogs were one of the last at-large teams into this year’s tournament. The Horned Frogs did beat Houston in mid January, but got blown out 60-45 in the Big 12 Tournament last week.
TCU
Strengths: The Horned Frogs have experience (third-oldest roster) and speed, two traits that should help them in the first round. Also, watch for Trevian Tennyson, who’s great from outside (41.9 percent) but is in a bit of a slump — just 31 percent in his last eight games.
Weaknesses: Shot-making. Jameer Nelson Jr. and Avery Anderson III are inefficient scorers, and their post scoring is inconsistent. TCU also struggles with turnovers when it plays too fast and doesn’t shoot enough 3-pointers to make up deficits.
Outlook: TCU was one of the last at-large bids, a reflection of its good-not-great profile. It was awesome at home — ask Houston — and just OK on the road. The Horned Frogs were 7-7 in games decided by eight points or less and 4-7 against ranked teams. They can run with anyone, but their offensive scoring droughts prevent them from being elite. Another of the Big 12 teams that’ll be tough to beat but may not be around long.
—Mike Miller
Utah State
Strengths: Danny Sprinkle did arguably the best coaching job in America this season. He took over Utah State last March and did not inherit a single point. He brought a couple of his players with him from Montana State — All-Mountain West performers Great Osobor and Darius Brown II — but that doesn’t change the fact that he won a loaded Mountain West building a program from scratch. Offensively, the Aggies are balanced. They have four different players who can lead in scoring any given game.
Weaknesses: For starters, Utah State is not a great 3-point shooting team. They don’t shoot a lot of them, and they don’t shoot them well. They run a lot of offense through Osobor at the five, and while he’s a dominant force at the Mountain West level, that’s not necessarily a guarantee to translate against bigger, more athletic four-men from power-conference schools. The other concern is rim protection. Utah State’s big men struggle defensively.
Outlook: Utah State has a lot going for it. The Aggies have a very good point guard. Their four-man is terrific. Those are the two most important positions in college basketball. But they are not great around the rim defensively and they don’t shoot it all that well. I think this team will have a real chance to win a game, but it’s hard for me to see them making a deep run into the second weekend.
—Rob Dauster
What: Midwest Region, First Round
Tipoff time: 9:55 p.m. ET Friday
TV: TBS
Location: Indianapolis
TCU vs. Utah State odds
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Expert picks
Model projection: TCU by 2, total 146
See Austin Mock’s best futures bets
Players to watch
TCU
Utah State
- Great Osobor, junior guard, MWC Player of the Year, first-team all-MWC
- Darius Brown II, graduate guard, first-team All-MWC, All-MWC defensive team
More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage
(Photo of Great Osobor: Ian Maule / Getty Images)
