This far into the season is a fun time to be playing DFS. On a large slate, there is no need to roster a player who is having a bad season or who you have a hunch on. We can find plenty of baseball players who are having great seasons, who have figured out how to maximize their tools and are honing their skills and taking advantage of warmer weather. Those are the players we need to be targeting in order to walk away with the win.
As far as pitching goes, there is a lot at the top (Brown, Ray, Eovaldi, Gray, and Pivetta) worth rostering. We have plenty of cheaper options in good matchups that we can take advantage of as well (Bassitt, Lugo, Soriano, Bello). I am particularly interested in the higher priced guys who can accumulate a ton of Ks, but interested in guys like Bassitt or Lugo who have arsenals they can really manipulate vs. a lesser team.
Take a look at the lower priced suggestions below and find a way to work those plays into your stacks. The most likely game to produce a strong DFS score is in Sacramento (ATL at ATH), but that is in no way the only spot that will produce a big score. STL is a cheap stack, and TOR has been great lately. BOS has another great matchup vs a Rockies lefty, and the cubs are always a fun stack. You will likely need a 4 or 5 man stack to win a tourney today. Figure out the one you like and stack it up a few different ways in a 3max or 5 max and enjoy your night!
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Sonny Gray, SP: $9,700 – I have to imagine, despite being the highest projected SP on the Streamonator, Gray will go overlooked. He is not as exciting as Brown, Ray, or Pivetta, but his K/BB numbers are great, and he gets the job done. I think he might go under owned in this spot.
Chris Bassitt, SP: $8,300 – Fangraphs just published an article about early defensive metrics by team, and the Blue Jays stand out as an excellent team defense. That is really what Bassitt needs against a team like the White Sox to produce a possible dominant outing. He should be able to find a combo of pitches that works to limit the Sox, and we may even be in line for a ceiling game.
Salvador Perez C: $3,200 – This pricing looks totally wrong. Sal Perez has been hitting the ball hard (4th hardest among Cs in the last 3 weeks) and he always has solid plate discipline. He hits in the middle of the order against the weak CWS pitching staff. Yes please.
Matt Olson, 1B: $5,100 – There are plenty of good options at 1B who hit the ball hard and have elite K/BB numbers. Olson happens to be in one of the best offensive situations today, playing in Sactown. I’ll be rostering him with optimism tonight.
Miguel Rojas, 2B: $2,400 – With injuries to the Dodgers lineup likely for at least another day, Rojas should have a chance to bat a little higher in the lineup (maybe 7th?) and his recent contact and power are enticing as part of one of the best offenses in baseball. I’ll monitor lineup position and punt the position if possible with Rojas.
Austin Riley, 3B: $4,400 – While Riley still strikes out too much, that imperfection can be somewhat overlooked today vs. Springs. The ballpark is a perfect place for a player with a 14% barrel rate. Furthermore, out of Riley’s 37 barrels so far this season, only 13 (that’s well less than half) have gone for HRs. Riley is due for some regression.
Willy Adames, SS: $4,000 – If you want to save some salary at SS, why not take a shot on Adames. He has settled in after a slow start and is hitting the ball like an elite SS now. The matchup against Taijuan Walker is pretty good for Adames who prefers to hit against RHPs. The PHI bullpen isn’t scary either.
Jac Caglianone, OF: $2,800 – Well, he likely does have a few holes in his swing, but Keller gets 8% swinging strikes and is otherwise very hittable. Jac’s struggles appear to be mediated by Keller’s tendency to fill up the zone. For a bottom barrel price, I’m back in on Jac.
Dominic Canzone, OF: $3,700 – LHBs give Will Warren a lot of trouble, especially hard hitting lefties. Warren has been known to simply walk lefties, but he can’t afford that against this SEA team and get away with it. Canzone will be waiting toward the bottom of the lineup with his 115 max EV and 16% barrel rate. Who knew?!
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There shouldn’t be much to worry about in the way of a postponed game, but there is some rain that will be delaying some games – pay attention to games in New York City and Chicago.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Think twice before you do the line in Vegas, and think twice when you see an odd line. Vegas likes the SF Giants today, and the projected team total is rising with the line. The PHI pitching staff is struggling and not as good as we assume. I am looking into some SF options for my DFS stacks, especially on the late slate.
