It’s not just Kentucky and everybody else anymore in the SEC. Since 2017, the Wildcats have won one regular-season title (2020) and one conference tournament crown (2018), while Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Tennessee have all claimed championships in that same span. While Kentucky looks poised to push for a return to the top, there are five SEC teams ranked in the top 20 of the preseason AP poll. The league’s talent level has been reloaded with a flood of highly ranked recruits and transfers — and new hotshot head coaches.
Lately, the SEC just means more competition. So how stacked is it?
Two dominant storylines
Lots of new faces
Six teams made coaching changes: Florida (Todd Golden from San Francisco), Georgia (Mike White from Florida), LSU (Matt McMahon from Murray State), Mississippi State (Chris Jans from New Mexico State), Missouri (Dennis Gates from Cleveland State) and South Carolina (Lamont Paris from Chattanooga). Three coaches with Final Four appearances — Frank Martin, Ben Howland, Tom Crean — are out of the league, while five of the new coaches only have mid-major experience and have never made the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. But fresh eyes and ideas can be a good thing.
There’s an influx of talent, too. Nine SEC teams signed top-40 recruiting classes, seven in the top 25, including No. 2 Arkansas, No. 3 Alabama and No. 5 Kentucky. The league signed 10 of the 26 five-star players and 30 of the 131 total blue-chip prospects in the Class of 2022, per the 247Sports Composite. Six teams got at least one five-star and 12 of 14 teams got at least one four-star (poor Mississippi State and Texas A&M). Eight SEC teams signed multiple blue-chippers: Arkansas (six), Alabama (four), Kentucky (three), Tennessee (three), LSU (three), Vanderbilt (three), Auburn (two) and Ole Miss (two).
Oh, and the transfers. Every team in the league added at least one transfer, eight teams added at least four and the SEC welcomed a total of 53 transfers for this season, including more of The Athletic‘s top transfers list than any other league. It might take us a while to get to know this remade SEC.
Is there a Final Four team here?
Kentucky has 17 Final Four appearances in its history, and John Calipari went to four of them in his first six years in Lexington, but the Wildcats haven’t been back since 2015. Arkansas has six Final Four berths in its history and got agonizingly close with consecutive Elite Eights the last two seasons, but the Razorbacks haven’t reached a national semifinal since 1995. Tennessee has, well, never made a Final Four. But Rick Barnes has. He and the Volunteers have also earned a top-three seed in three of the last four NCAA Tournaments (and were ranked sixth or higher in the AP poll at some point in each of those seasons) with just one Sweet 16 appearance to show for it.
Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee are all preseason top-15 teams with a mix of five-star talent and proven college veterans, so will any of them finally break through? As much as the overall health of the league has improved in recent years (six-to-eight NCAA bids each year since 2017), only two SEC teams have made the Final Four in the last six tournaments. Those were party crashers South Carolina (2017) and Auburn (2019). And the league’s only national championship since Florida went back-to-back 15 years ago was Kentucky in 2012. In the last 15 years, the ACC has five titles, the Big East four and the Big 12 three.
Three players to watch
1. Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky: One thing to watch is the health of his right knee, on which he had a “minor procedure” in early October. Tshiebwe, the first unanimous national player of the year to return to school since Tyler Hansbrough in 2008, is expected back by the regular-season opener. But you never like to see a big man with knee problems. Tshiebwe just had the most dominant rebounding season by a college player in 40 years, and he’ll be a monster on the glass again if healthy.
2. Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee: He was the surprise of the SEC last season, a 5-foot-9, three-star recruit without much high-major interest. Even Rick Barnes and his staff admit they did not expect Zeigler to be this good. He was an immediate impact player as a freshman on a top-10 team and the tip of the spear for a top-five defense. Zeigler pesters people to death and feels like the kind of guy who’ll spend four years making Vols fans love him and opposing fans hate him. He and senior Josiah-Jordan James, a rare McDonald’s All-American with blue-collar habits, drive Tennessee’s culture.
3. Colin Castleton, Florida: The former top-100 recruit and Michigan transfer has gotten better every season in college, and now he’s a super senior coming off 16.2 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game for the Gators. Castleton believes his new coach will unlock the last of his untapped potential, and if he’s right, Florida could be much better than most are predicting this season. The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie ranks Castleton the seventh-best big man in college basketball this season and projects him as a second-round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. What a huge (truly, at 6-11, 250 pounds) piece for Golden to inherit.
Colin Castleton gives new Florida coach Todd Golden a star to build around. (Kim Klement / USA Today)
Top newcomer
Nick Smith Jr., freshman, Arkansas
He finished No. 3 in the 247Sports Composite for the Class of 2022, but he might be the first high school player picked in the next NBA Draft. Smith is a 6-foot-5 scoring machine with a blend of size, skill and athleticism that allows him to get buckets every which way. He’ll be doing it for a team that lost almost all of its scoring from last season — and in Eric Musselman’s offense, which has produced one of the SEC’s top three scorers every year since he arrived.
Smith averaged 18.6 points in leading his Nike grassroots team to the 2021 Peach Jam championship game, where he poured in 31 points, averaged 26.5 points in leading his North Little Rock team to the 2022 state championship game, where he dropped 25 in the win, and earned MVP honors with 27 points at the Jordan Brand Classic. Smith is going to score. A lot. Get your popcorn ready.
Coach who needs to win
Jerry Stackhouse, Vanderbilt
Since there are six new coaches in the league and Calipari, Bruce Pearl, Musselman, Barnes and Nate Oats all seem pretty untouchable at the moment, there’s not even a long list to consider for this category.
It’s Stackhouse or Kermit Davis, who is 44-48 with zero NCAA Tournament appearances the last three years at Ole Miss. Stackhouse is 39-54 overall and 13-39 in SEC play in three seasons at Vanderbilt, although he did make a 10-win improvement last season, reached the NIT quarterfinals and earned a contract extension (the details of which are not public). So now long-suffering Commodores fans expect a breakthrough. Signing a top-25 recruiting class, featuring three four-star prospects, certainly provides some hope. But it might not be enough to offset the loss of a star like Scotty Pippen Jr., the SEC’s leading scorer last season.
Predicted league finish
1. Kentucky: Calipari returns the SEC’s assist leader (Sahvir Wheeler), nation’s best rebounder and player of the year (Oscar Tshiebwe), former Big Ten 3-point percentage leader (CJ Fredrick), a potential breakout star (Jacob Toppin) and a freakishly athletic former top-15 recruit who is back for his sophomore season (Daimion Collins). Throw in McDonald’s All-American freshmen Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston and transfer Antonio Reeves, the Missouri Valley’s second-leading scorer last season, and the Cats look as deep as they are talented.
2. Arkansas: Most teams welcoming 11 new players would not be picked to contend for the conference championship (and then some). But most teams can’t add as much talent in one absurd haul as Musselman just did. Five-star freshmen Smith, Anthony Black and Jordan Walsh headline a group of newcomers that includes three more top-100 recruits and five coveted transfers. Ricky Council IV (Wichita State), Jalen Graham (Arizona State) and Trevon Brazile (Missouri) are all plug-and-play difference-makers. Brazile could be a breakout star in the post alongside Walsh. The return of Devo Davis, a significant contributor on two Elite Eight teams, should anchor a loaded backcourt.
3. Tennessee: The Vols will miss the playmaking of one-and-done guard Kennedy Chandler and the decade (it felt like) of gritty contributions from John Fulkerson, but five of the top seven in minutes played for a 27-win team last season are back. That includes three All-SEC-caliber contributors — guards Zeigler and Santiago Vescovi and wing James — plus senior big men Olivier Nkamhoua (6-8, 225) and Uros Plavsic (7-0, 260). Barnes also added five-star freshman forward Julian Phillips and transfer guard Tyreke Key, who averaged more than 15.5 points for three straight seasons in the Missouri Valley. Tennessee is going to defend like hell and might have just enough scoring to win even when it doesn’t.
4. Alabama: Oats had it rolling two years ago, winning the SEC regular season and tournament titles. Last year was more like a roller coaster with wins over Gonzaga, Houston, Baylor and Tennessee — which finished No. 1, 2, 4 and 9 in KenPom’s rankings, respectively — but also 14 losses, including a first-round NCAA Tournament exit when Jahvon Quinerly tore his ACL. If the Crimson Tide can get Quinerly and fellow McDonald’s All-American Nimari Burnett (who missed last year with an ACL injury) back to full strength, Oats might have another fun team. He signed the No. 3 recruiting class, featuring five-stars Brandon Miller and Jaden Bradley and top-75 prospects Rylan Griffen and Noah Clowney. Mark Sears (19.6 ppg at Ohio last season) and Dominick Welch (257 made 3s, 37.4 percent career at St. Bonaventure) are quality transfers who Oats hopes will tie all of this talent together.
5. Auburn: Twin towers Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler are gone, picked No. 3 and No. 22 in the 2022 NBA Draft, but there’s a lot back and plenty of help arrived this summer. The Tigers’ top three guards — K.D. Johnson, Zep Jasper and Wendell Green Jr. — returned. Senior wing Allen Flanigan is back to start for a third straight season and top-40 freshman Chance Westry provides another exciting option at small forward. Bruce Pearl replaced Smith and Kessler, the national freshman of the year and defensive player of the year, respectively, about as well as he could’ve. Five-star center Yohan Traore and 6-10 Morehead State transfer Johni Broome, who averaged 16.8 points, 10.5 rebounds and 3.9 blocks as the OVC Defensive Player of the Year last season, should keep the Tigers from tumbling too far.
6. Texas A&M: Buzz Williams made waves when he lashed out at the NCAA Tournament selection committee for snubbing the Aggies last season. This brings us to a 27-win team returning six players who started at least 15 games last season, all back with a chip on their shoulder. Henry Coleman III, Tyrese Radford and Wade Taylor IV lead the way, while transfers Dexter Dennis (Wichita State), Julius Marble (Michigan State) and Anderson Garcia (Mississippi State) were all solid-to-significant contributors at their last stop. This team isn’t flashy, lacks any real star power, but it is deep and tough enough to be dancing in March.
7. Florida: This is a big step for 37-year-old Golden, a former Saint Mary’s player and Bruce Pearl assistant who has never won an NCAA Tournament game as a head coach. But he inherited a star in Castleton and added one of the best transfer trios in the country: Kyle Lofton (St. Bonaventure), Will Richard (Belmont) and Alex Fudge (LSU). Top-100 freshman Riley Kugel and VMI transfer Trey Bonham (13.6 ppg, 35 percent 3s) round out a revamped roster that gives Golden plenty to work with in Year 1.
8. LSU: Murray State’s Baton Rouge campus is coming together nicely. Damn near everybody followed Will Wade out the door, but McMahon quickly reassembled a competent roster. McMahon started building LSU’s roster with three of Murray State’s top four players: guards Justice Hill (13.4 ppg, 5.1 apg) and Trae Hannibal (9.2 ppg, 2.5 apg) and star center KJ Williams (18.0 ppg, 8.4 rpg). He added part-time NC State starter and former top-100 recruit Cam Hayes, Northwestern State double-double machine Kendal Coleman (15.4 ppg, 10.1 rpg) and Mississippi State role player Derek Fountain. Then he signed a top-20 recruiting class, including four-stars Tyrell Ward (No. 36 overall), Jalen Reed (No. 70) and Shawn Phillips (No. 116). These Tigers could surprise people.
9. Ole Miss: The Rebels had bad injury luck last season, with four starters undergoing surgery, including McDonald’s All-American point guard Daeshun Ruffin. He broke his hand early, tore his ACL late and averaged 12.6 points, 3.4 assists and 2.3 steals in the 14 games between. He’s back now to star alongside Matt Murrell, who averaged 15.5 points and shot 43 percent from 3 in league play. It’s obvious what Kermit Davis felt like his team still needed. In transfers Jayveous McKinnis (Jackson State), Josh Mballa (Buffalo), Theo Akwuba (Louisiana) and NAIA All-American Myles Burns (Loyola New Orleans), Ole Miss added four glass-cleaning conference defensive players of the year. The Rebels will be a tough out.
10. Missouri: As one might imagine, the cupboard was pretty bare coming off a 12-21 season. So Gates got busy getting some help for second-team All-SEC pick and 86-game starter Kobe Brown (12.5 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.5 apg). Gates brought the last two Horizon League defensive players of the year with him from Cleveland State: wings D’Moi Hodge (15.4 ppg) and Tre Gomillion, a 90-game starter who averaged about 10 and 5 for his career. Then he added one of the best offensive weapons in the transfer portal: Missouri State star Isiaih Mosley, who led the Missouri Valley in scoring the last two years (19.8 and 20.4 ppg). Those guys, plus top-60 recruit Aidan Shaw and top-five JUCO stars Mohamed Diarra and Sean East should make the Tigers at least competitive in Year 1 under Gates.
11. Mississippi State: Howland never could quite get it clicking in Starkville, and now Jans will give it a shot. New Mexico State finished first in the WAC four of his five years there, reached three of the last four NCAA Tournaments and advanced to the second round last year, when the Aggies went 27-7 and upset Connecticut. Tolu Smith (14.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg) is the Bulldogs’ best returning player and Oregon State transfer Dashawn Davis, a former JUCO All-American who led the Pac-12 in assists last season, is the most impactful addition. Southern Miss import Tyler Stevenson (14.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg), Southeast Missouri’s Eric Reed (16.1 ppg) and Albany’s Jamel Horton (12.8 ppg, 3.9 apg) also help, but there’s not an obvious star in the bunch and not a single four- or five-star freshman on the roster. This is a tall order.
12. Vanderbilt: Pippen Jr. is an enormous loss, but senior wing Jordan Wright (12.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg), junior forward Myles Stute (8.5 ppg, 43 percent 3s), super senior forward Quentin Milora-Brown (5.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg) and 7-foot super senior Liam Robbins (6.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg) all averaged at least 18 minutes for a team that experienced some postseason success last year. Three four-star freshmen — point guard Noah Shelby, power forward Colin Smith and center Lee Dort — plus two solid transfers infuse that veteran nucleus with some new talent. Ezra Manjon averaged 15 points at UC Davis last season and Emmanuel Ansong put up 11 and 5 at Wisconsin-Green Bay. That’s potentially enough to climb out of the bottom third of the league.
13. South Carolina: And now we’ve entered the bleak portion of the conference breakdown. It’s hard to have such low expectations when your new coach pulls a stunner and steals five-star recruit G.G. Jackson from national runner-up North Carolina. But that gives the Gamecocks an exciting freshman — who is still 17 years old — and … what else? Hayden Brown averaged 18.8 points and 9.5 boards last season at The Citadel. After that, there’s nobody else on the roster who averaged even five points in college basketball last season. Jackson will be fun to track as a prospect, but South Carolina might be a tough watch as a team.
14. Georgia: There’s just not a lot here to get excited about. Is it a good thing to return your top two scorers and four of your top five in minutes per game from a 6-26 team? White added a handful of quality transfers: Bradley guard Terry Roberts (14.5 ppg), Longwood guard Justin Hill (14.2 ppg), North Texas guard Mardrez McBride (11.3 ppg) and then some unproven but promising high-major free agents. Wing Jusaun Holt (Alabama), power forward Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe (Oklahoma State) and center Frank Anselem (Syracuse) are all former four-star recruits who’ve yet to show that in college.
(Top photo of Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe and Tennessee’s Josiah-Jordan James: Jordan Prather / USA Today)



