No one will forget Purdue’s loss to Fairleigh Dickinson in last year’s first round. It’s unlikely the Boilermakers will make the same mistake. Big Ten Player of the Year Zach Edey won’t let that happen, as he’s one of the most fun players to watch in the country.
Purdue brings a 29-4 record into this game and Matt Painter’s coaching experience should continue to benefit his team, specifically in this spot after his team’s meltdown last season in the same spot.
The good news for Purdue is that Grambling is not a high-powered team, and the Boilermakers should be dominant from the tip. But then again, everyone remembers what happened last season. Guard Jimel Cofer led the Tigers with 19 points each in their 88-81 win against Montana State in the First Four game on Wednesday night.
Purdue
Strengths: Matt Painter’s crew is in the top five in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Boilermakers share the ball beautifully (No. 4 nationally in assists-to-field-goals made) and bombard the basket from all points, shooting over 41 percent on 3-pointers in the regular season and converting over 53 percent from inside the arc. At 7-foot-4, Zach Edey’s sheer size and dexterity typically dominate the paint. With the big man flanked by superb gunners Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Mason Gillis and Lance Jones, Purdue is excellent on defense.
Weaknesses: Despite being a seasoned group, the Boilermakers too often leave the door ajar after halftime. Their stellar execution on both ends dries up late in games, leading to uncomfortable hold-the-line moments. Over the season’s final two months, Purdue also deteriorated in two key areas — offensive turnover rate and perimeter defense. If the Boilermakers don’t challenge shots effectively, disaster could strike.
Outlook: Purdue Pete still hasn’t recovered from last year’s opening-round debacle vs. Fairleigh Dickinson. To permanently bury their demons, the Boilers must bring a consistent 40 minutes. They have what’s needed to conquer the bracket — in particular, Jones’ off-the-dribble efficiency and overall athleticism give PU the backcourt spark they sorely lacked last year.
—Brad Evans
Grambling State
Outlook: With blowout non-conference losses to quality opposition in Iowa State, Florida, Washington State, Drake and Colorado, the Tigers didn’t exactly apply the needle to the record outside of league play. The daunting schedule did propel Donte Jackson’s club to in-conference heights, but the reality of November/December is about to rear its unfortunate head.
For a team that ranks No. 319 nationally in 3-point scoring and is highly reliant on free-throw conversions, squaring off against a formidable high-major school is a daunting task. Apologies, Tigers, but another shellacking is on the immediate horizon.
—Brad Evans
What: Midwest Region, First Round
Tipoff time: 7:25 p.m. ET Friday
TV: TBS
Location: Indianapolis
Purdue vs. Grambling odds
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Expert picks
Model projection: Purdue 22.5, total 137.5
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Players to watch
Purdue
- Zach Edey, senior center, Big Ten Player of the Year, first-team All-Big Ten, All-Big Ten defensive team
- Braden Smith, sophomore guard, first-team All-Big Ten
Grambling
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(Photo of Matt Painter: Michael Allio / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
