For the past two days, we’ve broken down first-round matchups in our annual search for upsets. But brackets don’t stop after one round. And here at Bracket Breaker Central, we are eternally at your service. So, we present the upset odds for every potential second-round matchup that qualifies for Bracket Breaker status (i.e., a difference of at least five seeds).
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A few notes before you dive into the data:
- VCU over Wisconsin is far and away the best shot at a second-round upset, coming in at close to 50 percent. If you’re going to take the Rams to beat BYU, you might as well pick them over the Badgers as well.
- Not a single No. 8 or No. 9 seed even reaches 20 percent upset odds against a No. 1 seed. That’s a testament to the strength of the top teams this year.
- UCLA and Utah State both have outstanding “killer” profiles. The Bruins force turnovers at the nation’s seventh-highest rate, while the Aggies excel in that area as well (38th in the nation) while also grabbing offensive rebounds and shooting plenty of 3s. Regardless of which team wins, Tennessee will face a stiffer challenge than many people realize.
- Don’t sleep on Kansas. The Jayhawks have struggled mightily, but every year, a team takes its lumps in a power conference only to mount a rally in the NCAA Tournament. We call these teams “wounded assassins,” and you only need to look back to last year’s North Carolina State squad for a recent example. If the Jayhawks survive Arkansas — no easy task — they have a 23 percent chance of upsetting St. John’s.
- A pair of No. 3 seeds — Iowa State and Kentucky — look vulnerable, with upset odds over 25 percent. And that doesn’t account for the Cyclones’ injury to Keshon Gilbert.
Bracket Breakers Regional Breakdowns
West | South | Midwest | East
Women’s Top 10 Upsets
Want a closer look at the first round? Check out the regional breakdowns above. And now, on to the second-round numbers!
South Region
| Potential Matchup | Upset Chance |
|---|---|
|
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 8 Louisville |
14.5% |
|
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 9 Creighton |
15.6% |
|
No. 2 Michigan St. vs. No. 7 Marquette |
33.0% |
|
No. 2 Michigan St. vs. No. 10 New Mexico |
21.3% |
|
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 11 North Carolina |
27.6% |
|
No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 12 UC San Diego |
21.0% |
|
No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 13 Yale |
16.2% |
|
No. 6 Mississippi vs. No. 14 Lipscomb |
26.0% |
|
No. 7 Marquette vs. No. 15 Bryant |
7.4% |
|
No. 8 Louisville vs. No. 16 Alabama St. |
4.6% |
|
No. 9 Creighton vs. No. 16 Alabama St. |
16.1% |
|
No. 10 New Mexico vs. No. 15 Bryant |
13.3% |
West Region
| Potential Matchup | Upset Chance |
|---|---|
|
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 8 UConn |
15.5% |
|
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 9 Oklahoma |
8.3% |
|
No. 2 St. John’s vs. No. 7 Kansas |
22.8% |
|
No. 2 St. John’s vs. No. 10 Arkansas |
16.1% |
|
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 Drake |
26.4% |
|
No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 12 Colorado St. |
20.4% |
|
No. 5 Memphis vs. No. 13 Grand Canyon |
21.1% |
|
No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 14 UNC Wilmington |
18.9% |
|
No. 7 Kansas vs. No. 15 Omaha |
5.6% |
|
No. 8 UConn vs. No. 16 Norfolk St. |
8.9% |
|
No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 16 Norfolk St. |
23.9% |
|
No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 15 Omaha |
13.8% |
East Region
| Potential Matchup | Upset Chance |
|---|---|
|
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 8 Mississippi St. |
12.1% |
|
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 9 Baylor |
17.2% |
|
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 7 St. Mary’s |
16.5% |
|
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt |
22.7% |
|
No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 VCU |
44.3% |
|
No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 12 Liberty |
17.2% |
|
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 13 Akron |
20.3% |
|
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 14 Montana |
6.8% |
|
No. 7 St. Mary’s vs. No. 15 Robert Morris |
16.0% |
|
No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 16 American |
12.0% |
|
No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s |
9.3% |
|
No. 9 Baylor vs. No. 16 American |
12.7% |
|
No. 9 Baylor vs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s |
8.5% |
|
No. 10 Vanderbilt vs. No. 15 Robert Morris |
19.3% |
Midwest Region
| Potential Matchup | Upset Chance |
|---|---|
|
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 8 Gonzaga |
11.9% |
|
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 9 Georgia |
14.5% |
|
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 7 UCLA |
25.2% |
|
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 10 Utah St. |
25.1% |
|
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Texas |
36.0% |
|
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Xavier |
28.4% |
|
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 12 McNeese |
29.6% |
|
No. 5 Clemson vs. No. 13 High Point |
22.0% |
|
No. 6 Illinois vs. No. 14 Troy |
23.2% |
|
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 15 Wofford |
14.6% |
|
No. 8 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 SIU Edwardsville |
7.6% |
|
No. 9 Georgia vs. No. 16 SIU Edwardsville |
8.3% |
|
No. 10 Utah St. vs. No. 15 Wofford |
15.5% |
(Photo: G Fiume / Getty Images; Illustration: Will Tullos, The Athletic)
