Father Time is licking his chops when he looks at the depth chart for the Pittsburgh Steelers, as Aaron Rodgers is back for one last hurrah in the black and gold. With Mike Tomlin out and Mike McCarthy in, the head coach and quarterback for the 2011 Super Bowl-winning Green Bay Packers have exchanged green for black for the 2026 NFL season.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that many in the dynasty community are low on Pittsburgh this season, as the combination of old talent (Rodgers, D.K. Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr.) mixed with misused skill players (Pat Freiermuth) and unknown youth (Germie Bernard) paints a very cloudy picture. With the AFC North up for grabs yet again in 2026, the Steelers do have a chance to win the division, but it certainly would be more surprising if they had a good year than a poor one.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
2026 Coaching Staff: HC Mike McCarthy, OC Brian Angelichio, DC Patrick Graham
2025 Staff: HC Mike Tomlin, OC Arthur Smith, DC Teryl Austin
Tomlin’s last season was a bit better than many expected, as the Steelers finished 10-7, won the North, and earned a home playoff game. However, they were utterly embarrassed (30-6) at the hands of the visiting Houston Texans when their AFC playoff trip ended abruptly in the Wild Card round.
It was a solid, yet unspectacular season for Aaron Rodgers in 2025, as his 24:7 TD-to-INT ratio was his first single-digit interception season since 2021. Jaylen Warren put up an RB17 season, racking up 1,291 all-purpose yards and 8 total touchdowns. D.K. Metcalf was fine as Rodgers’ top target, finishing as the WR26 in an 850-yard campaign.
Major Fantasy Implications
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Fantasy Football Outlook |
| Offensive Philosophy | West Coast-influenced with a heavy reliance on the run creating vertical play-action situations |
| Biggest Winner | Pat Freiermuth |
| Sneaky Winner | Germie Bernard |
| Biggest Question | Backfield Workload Split |
| Dynasty Watch | Year 1 Role for Germie Bernard |
Coach Background
McCarthy is as old school as it gets in the league, as he is the third-oldest (62) in the NFL, behind Andy Reid (68) and John Harbaugh (63). It is no secret that his old-school offensive tendencies struggle a bit against modern-day defensive schemes and pressures, but his West Coast-influenced playbook has enough adjustments and intricacies to remain flexible and relevant.
After coaching the Packers for 12+ seasons and the Dallas Cowboys for five, McCarthy took the 2025 season off before throwing his hat back into the coaching carousel this past offseason. With the Steelers, the only franchise taking his candidacy seriously, McCarthy was able to come home and coach his hometown franchise, a perfect end to what will likely be the final head coaching job of his long coaching career.
New Offensive Scheme
There will be a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, which will absolutely lead to frustrating fantasy weeks. Dating back to the days of these two running things at Lambeau Field, a McCarthy-led offense with Rodgers at quarterback peppers a ton of different targets. Another aspect of McCarthy’s offense that will help is the inclusion of running backs in the passing game, which means both Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle will have important roles in this part of the offense.
Passing Game Impact
This isn’t going to be a fast-paced attack, and it certainly won’t be a unit that is ranked highly in any major passing stats at the end of the season. However, it seems that McCarthy’s scheme uses the passing game to set up the run game, which means that Rodgers will have plenty of chances every game to air it out.
Looking back at the 2023 season for the Cowboys, which was the final healthy season for Dak Prescott during the McCarthy era, you can see that their pass-happy scheme (60.7% of all offensive plays) resulted in solid fantasy numbers (QB3 on the year). That isn’t to say that Rodgers will be granted 590 passing attempts (a number he hasn’t hit since 2018), but it is in the script that there could be heavier passing games mixed in.
Quicker route concepts, play-action formations, and heavier personnel are likely in store for the Steelers in 2026, which will benefit all pass-catchers differently. The ‘vertical’ aspect of this vertical passing attack will be tested without a true speed threat in the wide receiver room, turning this part of the offense into more of a possession-focused attack, which lends itself to the shorter aDOT route tree. Look for Metcalf to stretch the field on more intermediate routes, while Pittman and Bernard fill the space vacated underneath in secondary roles, acting as more than just safety valves.
But lost in all of this is the role of the tight end. Currently, Pat Freiermuth fills the TE1 role with no competition behind him. With Jonnu Smith no longer stealing snaps and Darnell Washington filling the TE2 role more as a blocker, Freiermuth is in line to be Rodgers’ favorite dump-off target (that isn’t a RB). While he will need to compete with the running backs for targets around the line of scrimmage, the tight end position has always been a highly incorporated part of McCarthy’s passing attack, giving Freiermuth legs as a top-15 option.
Running Game Impact
There’s no surprise in knowing that McCarthy is a zone-scheme believer for the run game, as he leans heavily on the outside zone run. Both Dowdle and Warren ran zone-focused schemes in 2025, with Warren (63.5%, 134 carries) clearing Dowdle (52.1%, 123 carries) on zone-running plays.
Running more of an outside zone structure means that you can likely expect a heavy usage of 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs), meaning that Washington will likely see an uptick in snaps. As an extension of the offensive line as a sixth blocker, Washington is going to become a very valuable piece for McCarthy. Plus, he has already seen some work as the goal-line FB in short-yardage situations.
Fantasy Storylines to Follow
Rico Dowdle/Jaylen Warren
It will likely be a tough backfield to figure out in the first month of the season, as both Dowdle and Warren will be jockeying for playing time. While Warren is the incumbent, Dowdle was added this offseason to cloud up the backfield timeshare.
Warren’s biggest impact is in the passing game, where he has three consecutive seasons of 45+ targets and 300+ receiving yards. But Dowdle has been heavily involved in the passing game during his time with Carolina and Dallas, recording 39 receptions in each of the past 2 seasons.
- Warren had a 52.2% success rate on zone rushing attempts last year (9th best); success rate for running backs is defined as gaining 40% of remaining yards on first down, 60% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth downs
- Dowdle earned 66.7% of all carries inside the five-yard line for Carolina in 2025, tied for sixth among all running backs with 200+ carries last year
D.K. Metcalf
Metcalf’s first season in the black and gold was fine, as he finished as the WR26 last year. Failing to cross the 100-target threshold for the first time in his career, Metcalf took a step back in a lot of major categories, but should be in line for a 1,000-yard season with the additions of Pittman Jr. and Bernard.
- Metcalf was clearly Rodgers’ favorite target in 2025, earning 6.5 targets/game and earning over 21% of the team’s targets; while these numbers likely will decline, he should still lead the team in both areas in 2026
Pat Freiermuth
Freiermuth was a forgotten man last year, as he fought Smith for TE1 duties. With Jonnu now out of the picture, Freiermuth is free to resume his TE1 role, with Washington holding down TE2/blocking duties. This depth-chart change will help free Freiermuth up for more receiving work and fewer blocking responsibilities, which will paint a clearer picture for his usage.
- Freiermuth led all Pittsburgh pass catchers last year in catch rate (77.4%) and saw the second-most targets (8) inside the red zone, showing that Rodgers routinely looked for him near the goal line
Biggest 2026 Takeaways
There is nothing sexy about the Steelers offense heading into the 2026 season, and rostering any of these offensive pieces is a tough pill to swallow. However, there is plenty of value to scoop up if your roster can afford to deal with a bunch of early-season bumps in the road.
- 2026 will be an all-or-nothing season for Rodgers, as he has already confirmed that this is his final season before retirement; expect AR12 to leave everything out on the field this year, likely creating a higher-than-usual INT total than in years past.
- The run game will be heavily featured to help balance out the offense, and with Dowdle in the fold, both he and Warren will be valuable enough to start on a weekly basis, especially if 2025 was any sign of how both running backs will be used.
- While Metcalf and Pittman Jr. will earn the headlines, Freiermuth could be the most consistent pass catcher on PIT in 2026. With no Smith in the fold, Freiermuth is clearly the best pass catcher at tight end.
- Metcalf should reclaim his role as Rodgers’ top target in 2026; Pittman Jr. will have a good-enough floor every week to be a WR3; and Bernard’s slot value will be extremely volatile (even though he could be the highest-valued WR at the end of the season).
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