• Pairing Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua is the ideal first two picks: Nacua had one of the best rookie wide receiver seasons ever while Wilson should have a significant improvement at quarterback.
• Finding a quarterback is tricky: There aren’t many opportunities to pick a great quarterback at a good value with one of these picks, so don’t be afraid to strike even if the value is just okay.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF’s fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated reading time: 14 minutes
The perfect draft series combines current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues for anyone picking 10th, 11th or 12th.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Friday, August 16
Round 1, Picks 10-12: Draft a wide receiver
The value at the end of the first round is at wide receiver. The running backs who are likely available include Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley, but all three players have risk. Picking wide receivers has generally been safer, and there will still be quality running backs in later rounds.
While I have Puka Nacua ranked higher than Garrett Wilson, there is a higher chance Nacua falls to the second round than Wilson. If you only think you can get one of the two wide receivers in the first two rounds, pick Nacua first. Otherwise, pick Wilson in hopes of adding both.
Top Target: Garrett Wilson
Wilson has been an outstanding wide receiver hindered by poor quarterback play. Despite this, his raw numbers have been impressive because the New York Jets often play from behind and Wilson rarely leaves the field. This has resulted in him running many routes per game and a high target rate. Wilson’s main reason for optimism this season is Aaron Rodgers. The veteran signal-caller has been the sixth-most accurate quarterback on intermediate and deep passes over the last three seasons while the Jets’ former quarterback, Zach Wilson, was the least accurate. Despite having nearly the same number of dropbacks over the last three seasons, Zach Wilson has almost double the number of sacks and scrambles and has checked down more often. This change should result in more accurate passes to Wilson and a higher percentage of pass plays targeting wide receivers.
Possible Targets: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Chris Olave, Drake London
Round 2, Picks 13-15: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Nacua should be the pick if he’s available. Outside of that, there are options at both running back and wide receiver here. Whichever position is picked here, it’s probably best to do the opposite in Rounds 3 or 4 to optimize this build, so a lot depends on how you feel about the running backs available here and at the end of Round 3.
Top Target: Puka Nacua
Nacua finished with the fourth-most fantasy points among all wide receivers last season, making it one of the best rookie seasons by a wide receiver of all time. His situation this year is very similar to last year with Sean McVay as his head coach, Matthew Stafford as his quarterback, and Cooper Kupp as his primary competition. It is certainly possible that Nacua will have an even better sophomore season. Still, he has a one-year sample size of excellent play compared to the wide receivers selected ahead of him who have been clear elite options for multiple seasons.
Possible Targets: Kyren Williams, Davante Adams, Derrick Henry, Isiah Pacheco, Marvin Harrison Jr.
Round 3, Picks 34-36: Draft a running back, wide receiver or Lamar Jackson
Teams picking at the end will have a harder time landing a great quarterback. The top 15 picks are a little too early for Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes isn’t going to be around late in Round 3. This is a little higher than Lamar Jackson’s ADP, but he is well worth the selection to ensure this team has an elite quarterback. If, for whatever reason, Jackson is already gone, then it’s time to pivot to wide receiver. If you think you can wait until the next round to land Jackson or need a wide receiver, it’s fine to pick someone else.
Top Target: Lamar Jackson
Jackson’s expectations were high last season, and he lived up to the hype with an MVP season. He averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game, making anyone who drafted Jackson last year happy with their decision. Now, Jackson will be in the second year of Todd Monken’s offense while still having Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers as his top targets. We should expect more of the same from Jackson this season.
Possible Targets: James Cook, Jaylen Waddle, Joe Mixon, DeVonta Smith, D.K. Metcalf, Lamar Jackson
Round 4, Picks 37-39: Draft a running back, tight end or Lamar Jackson
If you didn’t pick Jackson last round and he is available, then he would be the pick here. The value at wide receiver in the fourth round isn’t great, so I lean running back. This is partially why I lean wide receiver over running back in the second round. It’s also OK to consider a tight end here, especially if you missed out on Jackson altogether.
Top Target: James Cook
Cook showed he could be a versatile runner in his second season, playing well on gap or zone plays while playing particularly well even when plays weren’t perfectly blocked or he faced an eight-man box. He’s been particularly good at consistently breaking longer runs. Once Ken Dorsey was fired and Joe Brady took over as the Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator, Cook touched the ball much more often. His opportunities should remain high after the losses at receiver and veteran backup running backs.
Possible Targets: Lamar Jackson, James Cook, Joe Mixon, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts
Round 5, Picks 58-60: Draft a quarterback or tight end
The value in the fifth round is at quarterback and tight end. It’s the last chance to pick up great options at either position. As mentioned in all four of the draft strategies for 12-team leagues, this is the sweet spot for tight end to either land Pitts or Kittle. Considering the lack of depth at tight end across the league, landing one of these tight ends will give you a lot fewer headaches throughout the season.
Top Target: Kyle Pitts
Pitts is a very talented tight end who has consistently underperformed in fantasy football. His 82.4 PFF receiving grade over the last three seasons is the fifth-best among tight ends, behind Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert. Pitts’ utilization has been a major problem. Last season, he played over 75% of the Atlanta Falcons‘ offensive snaps in only two games, with a median of 64%. Zac Robinson will now orchestrate the Falcons offense, which is a big reason for optimism regarding Pitts’ role this season. He’s expected to stay on the field and see a higher target rate.
Everything points to Pitts putting up better numbers this season if he can stay healthy. There is some uncertainty with the new offensive play-caller, new quarterback, and the limited sample size of tight ends as young as Pitts entering their fourth season. Pitts should be a clear fantasy starter this season, but he will need to find the red zone more often to break into the top five or higher. If everything goes right, he has the potential to be the overall TE1.
Possible Targets: George Kittle, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Jake Ferguson, Evan Engram
Round 6, Picks 61-63: Draft a wide receiver
The next two picks should lead to a third wide receiver and a second running back. While there might be some decent running backs available at this pick, Rashee Rice is too much of a value not to land on your team. He won’t be available in Round 7, so this is the best opportunity to draft him. Even if you don’t land Rice, there are other solid wide receiver options to consider.
Top Target: Rashee Rice
Rice finished as WR27 and was a top-36 wide receiver in nearly 70% of his games despite playing less than 70% of the Kansas City Chiefs‘ offensive snaps in all but four games. By Week 14, he began receiving playing time comparable to a typical starting wide receiver, playing at least 75% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps from Weeks 14-17. During this period, he ranked eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers. In the playoffs, Rice played at least 75% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps in three of four games, averaging 6.5 receptions for 65.5 yards per game against some of the NFL’s best defenses.
If not for the potential suspension, he would be considered a top-10 wide receiver this season. Even if he is suspended for the first six games, his fantasy value would increase simply by knowing he would be available for the fantasy playoffs.
Possible Targets: Terry McLaurin, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley
Round 7, Picks 82-84: Draft a running back
Anyone picking in the latter half of the first round is at a little bit of a disadvantage because there ends up being a clear weak point on the roster. In this case, it’s at running back. The players available here should be fantasy starters more often than not, but part of the strategy will be to load up on running backs over the next few rounds so a starter can be picked each week depending on matchups.
Top Target: Jaylen Warren
Warren finished last season with the 22nd-most fantasy points, just ahead of teammate Najee Harris. His role has primarily been as a receiving back, but Warren has outplayed Harris as a runner outside of clear short-yardage situations. The Steelers have a new offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith. Warren is more like Bijan Robinson and Harris is more like Tyler Allgeier, so there is a chance the gap between Warren and Harris’ fantasy value will grow this season.
Possible Targets: Tony Pollard, Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams, Brian Robinson Jr., Jonathon Brooks
Round 8, Picks 85-87: Draft a running back or wide receiver
At this point, this team should already have two running backs, but it’s time to pick up a third. There are a few running backs in two-player committees where either one has a chance to have a breakout season given their and their team’s talent. The eighth round is the perfect time to pick up one of these running backs because once they are gone, any other running back is much more of a gamble. If you had already added two running backs early, there are a few young wide receivers worth considering here, but with this team being so strong at wide receiver already, I’m fine drafting a little more for need.
Top Target: Tony Pollard
Pollard has the fourth-highest offensive grade for a running back over the last four seasons at 91.3, behind only Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Expectations were high last season after the Dallas Cowboys let go of Ezekiel Elliott. Unfortunately, it took time for him to recover from his leg injuries from the 2022 divisional playoff round. By Week 11, he was back to his former self. He was the highest-graded rusher from that point on, finishing as RB13. He was finally receiving the playing time he deserved but wasn’t getting the ball enough when he was on the field.
Now, he’s with the Tennessee Titans and competing for playing time with Tyjae Spears. The sophomore running back is also very talented, but given Pollard’s past production, he has a chance to be the lead back in the Joe Mixon role in Brian Callahan’s offense.
Possible Targets: Ladd McConkey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Xavier Worthy, Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams
Round 9, Picks 106-108: Draft a running back or wide receiver
While you can certainly turn back toward running back again with this pick, Thomas is enough of a value that it’s worth adding him here. There is still a chance Rashee Rice gets suspended at some point this season, so it is still important to add a little depth at wide receiver. It’s possible to pick some safer, high-floor wide receivers later, so it’s fine to take a swing at a rookie here.
Top Target: Brian Thomas Jr.
Thomas was the consensus WR4 heading into the draft, and his landing spot was strong enough to remain WR4 in my rankings. Thomas has a rare combination of size and speed. He finished above the 80th percentile among wide receivers in both height and 40-yard dash time. He has the opportunity to be the top outside threat in Jacksonville after the team was unable to re-sign Calvin Ridley. While the Jacksonville Jaguars have strong receiving options in the middle of the field with Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram, Ridley was WR18 last season, including five weeks as a top-10 fantasy receiver. Thomas took all of the snaps with the first team in his first preseason game, so he should run a lot of routes each week.
Possible Targets: Chase Brown, Ezekiel Elliott, Jerome Ford, Tyler Lockett, Jakobi Meyers
Round 10, Picks 109-111: Draft a running back
With a starting quarterback and tight end secured, the next several picks will be some combination of running back and wide receiver. When you have a top-six quarterback or tight end, you’re not benching them because a backup has a better matchup. That means a backup is only necessary in case of injuries, so you can draft more running backs and wide receivers before making lineup decisions based on matchups and who breaks out.
Top Target: Chase Brown
Brown is competing with Zack Moss for the starting running back job in Cincinnati. Throughout training camp, he’s received plenty of first-team looks and has shined throughout. During the first preseason game, he received opportunities on third-and-long — a situation he wasn’t involved with last season — so he has an opportunity to be much more involved in the passing game. He’s a gamble, but a solid one to make at this point in the draft.
Possible Targets: Ezekiel Elliott, Jerome Ford, Gus Edwards, Zach Charbonnet, Blake Corum
Round 11, Picks 130-132: Draft a wide receiver or Chuba Hubbard
Top Target: Brandin Cooks
It took a few weeks for Cooks to start producing in the Dallas Cowboys offense last season, but he scored the 24th-most fantasy points for a wide receiver from Week 6 until the end of the season. The offense has lost some of its receiving production and didn’t bring in much to replace them, which should put more emphasis on the other Cowboys receivers. A lot of Cooks’ fantasy production came from touchdowns which is bound to regress, but three of his best four games in terms of targets and receptions came in the last three weeks of the season, including the playoffs. If Cooks can continue that momentum into the 2024 season, he will be one of the biggest steals of the draft.
Possible Targets: Chuba Hubbard, Mike Williams, Rashid Shaheed, Joshua Palmer, Jerry Jeudy
Round 12, Picks 133-135: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Top Target: Chuba Hubbard
Hubbard was used in a variety of situations over his first two seasons, and his role increased significantly for the 2023 season, playing at least 64% of his team’s offensive snaps in each of his last seven games. He finished at least RB28 or better in each of those games including two weeks as a top-12 running back.
The Panthers added Jonathon Brooks in the draft as the first running back selected, but he is coming off a torn ACL. A few weeks ago, it was reported that Brooks still has a ways to go in his recovery and will likely be eased into training camp. Hubbard has a decent chance to be the starter at least early in the season, and the Panthers shouldn’t rush Brooks. Hubbard is a great gamble this late in the draft as someone capable of being a feature back.
Possible Targets: Brandin Cooks, Rashid Shaheed, Joshua Palmer, Jerry Jeudy, Tyler Allgeier
Round 13, Picks 154-156: Draft a wide receiver
Top Target: Darnell Mooney
Mooney showed promise in his second season with the Chicago Bears, catching 81 passes for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns. He’s played 26 games over the last two seasons, but his totals from those years combined don’t add up to his 2021 production. Mooney has a change of scenery with the Atlanta Falcons and a much better quarterback. He’s clearly second on the depth chart, and this might be what he needs to get back to his 2021 form.
Possible Targets: Josh Downs, Demarcus Robinson, Ja’Lynn Polk, DeMario Douglas, Michael Wilson
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
