• A top-five wide receiver is likely to fall: With three running backs typically selected among the top six picks, at least two elite wide receivers should be available at Pick No. 7.
• It’s not too early to pick a quarterback in Round 3: Last year, quarterbacks selected in Round 2 proved to be league winners. This year, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts fit that description once again, but they can be drafted a round later in 2024.
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Estimated reading time: 15 minutes
The Perfect Draft series integrates current ADPs from both expert and casual drafts to identify the best available picks at each selection. This draft strategy is tailored for 12-team PPR leagues, specifically for those picking seventh.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Thursday, August 22
Round 1, Pick 7: Draft a wide receiver
In most leagues, the top three running backs are typically selected within the first six picks, making wide receivers the better value in the second half of the first round. While Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley both have ADPs in the late first round, it’s worth noting that they are older players whose best seasons were a few years ago. Although there’s reason for optimism around them this year, there’s also the risk that they might not return to their previous form. Therefore, the safer strategy is to pick a wide receiver in the first round.
Top Target: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Player Profile)
In 2022, St. Brown posted excellent numbers in every statistic aside from routes run per game, but the Detroit Lions fixed that in 2023 by keeping him on the field more often. This led to more routes per game and more production in general. He was also targeted in the red zone more frequently, a significant reason why he recorded double-digit touchdowns for the first time. St. Brown deserves to get picked in the top half of the first round of PPR drafts. The Lions’ run-first offense and Jared Goff’s aversion to deep passes might prevent St. Brown from being in the overall WR1 conversation, but an argument can be made that the Lions receiver is the safest pick in fantasy drafts this year.
