• Draft a top-five wide receiver: The worst-case scenario is Christian McCaffrey and four wide receivers are picked before this pick, but that still lands this team a top-five wide receiver.
• It’s not too early to pick a quarterback in Round 3: Round 2 quarterbacks were league winners last year, and Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts fit that description again this year and can be drafted a round later.
• Dominate your fantasy draft: Subscribe to PFF+ to get full access to PFF’s full suite of fantasy football tools, including the fantasy mock draft simulator, live draft assistant, fantasy rankings, cheat sheets and more! Click here to subscribe!
Estimated reading time: 14 minutes
The perfect draft series combines current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues for anyone picking sixth.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Wednesday, August 21
Round 1, Pick 6: Draft a wide receiver
The only options here are a running back and wide receiver. In the first half of the first round, I lean wide receiver. The wide receivers are generally low-risk. At running back, the options are Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson, where there is much more risk. Aaron Rodgers might not target Hall much in the passing game while the Atlanta Falcons use a lot of Tyler Allgeier. The risks are very different.
Top Target: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Player Profile)
In 2022, St. Brown posted excellent numbers in every statistic aside from routes run per game, but the Detroit Lions fixed that in 2023 by keeping him on the field more often. This led to more routes per game and more production in general. He was also targeted in the red zone more frequently, a significant reason why he recorded double-digit touchdowns for the first time. St. Brown deserves to get picked in the top half of the first round of PPR drafts. The Lions’ run-first offense and Jared Goff’s aversion to deep passes might prevent St. Brown from being in the overall WR1 conversation, but an argument can be made that the Lions receiver is the safest pick in fantasy drafts this year.
Possible Targets: Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams
Round 2, Pick 19: Draft a wide receiver
The options at this point of the draft are a high upside young wide receiver like Chris Olave or Drake London, or a running back like Travis Etienne Jr. or Isiah Pacheco. Both running backs have their limitations while both wide receivers are players on the rise who could end up at the top-10 at their position by the end of the year. Anyone picking in the first half of the draft can also generally find pretty good value at running back in Round 4, making wide receiver the pick here.
Top Target: Chris Olave (Player Profile)
Olave has been an underrated wide receiver in his two years with the New Orleans Saints. His per-route production has been excellent. His 87.2 PFF receiving grade over his first two seasons ranks eighth among wide receivers over the past decade. Olave recently celebrated his 24th birthday, so we can still expect improvement from the budding superstar. He finished as the WR16 last season, and it’s fair to expect him to run more routes this year, leading to more production.
Possible Targets: Drake London, Mike Evans, Nico Collins, Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk
Round 3, Pick 30: Draft a quarterback
A quarterback is the ideal pick at the start of Round 3. These perfect draft articles constantly mentioned Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts at the end of Round 2 last season, and they ended up finishing first and second in fantasy points at the position. Both quarterbacks have changed this offseason, but their talent and rushing production still leave them squarely at the top.
In contrast, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith were the other options to end Round 2 last season. All three were worthy of being fantasy starters, but none finished in the top 15 as their draft status implied. This year the other options are a top tight end, or other running backs and wide receivers who are likely fantasy starters but more of a gamble.
Top Target: Jalen Hurts
Hurts has averaged at least 21.0 fantasy points per start in every season of his career. While his tush push touchdowns have certainly helped his fantasy value, he’s one of just four quarterbacks with at least 2,200 rushing yards over the last three seasons while no one else is above 1,300. Considering one of those four is a backup and the other two are at an age where we stop seeing as much rushing production from quarterbacks, Hurts could be the best rushing quarterback this season. He is also surrounded by a top-three receiving corps and offensive line so even if his rushing touchdown total recedes, his fantasy production should remain high.
Possible Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott
Round 4, Pick 43: Draft a running back
This is the last opportunity to draft a clear-cut starting running back. This running back tier is valuable if everything goes according to plan but a lot can go wrong. All six backs available at this point have averaged at least 14.5 PPR points per game over a significant stretch during the last two seasons, but most of the teams these running backs played for have invested a significant draft pick on another running back. Enough has been invested in these six that they are unlikely to completely disappear even if they lose playing time.
Top Target: Joe Mixon (Player Profile)
Mixon has been a consistent top-12 fantasy running back in both total ranking and points per game. Although he enters a new environment in 2024, he will again play in a high-scoring offense as the Houston Texans‘ clear lead running back. While he’s never been the most explosive running back, it’s fair to think he will finish in the top 12 yet again. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik recently said Mixon is “an absolute workhorse, in every regard.” The offenses Slowik has been part of generally run the ball more than average, which should continue to be true with Mixon.
Possible Targets: Kenneth Walker III, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, David Montgomery
Round 5, Pick 54: Draft a tight end
The start of Round 5 is a sweet spot for adding a star tight end, which is why that position was ignored at the end of Round 2. The top tight ends available at this spot have either finished as top-six fantasy tight ends each of the last two seasons with the same quarterback and offensive play-caller or are a young tight end with a great opportunity to have a career year.
Top Target: Kyle Pitts (Player Profile)
Pitts is a very talented tight end who has consistently underperformed in fantasy football. His 82.4 PFF receiving grade over the last three seasons is the fifth-best among tight ends, behind Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert. Pitts’ utilization has been a major problem. Last season, he played over 75% of his team’s offensive snaps in only two games, with a 64% median. Zac Robinson will now orchestrate the Atlanta Falcons offense, which is a big reason for optimism regarding Pitts’ role this season. He’s expected to stay on the field and see a higher target rate.
Everything points to Pitts putting up better numbers this season if he can stay healthy. There is some uncertainty with the new offensive play-caller, new quarterback, and the limited sample size of tight ends as young as Pitts entering their fourth season. Pitts should be a clear fantasy starter this season, but he will need to find the red zone more often to break into the top five or higher. If everything goes right, he has the potential to be the overall TE1.
Possible Targets: George Kittle, Jake Ferguson, Evan Engram, Brock Bowers, David Njoku
Round 6, Pick 67: Draft a wide receiver
The next two picks should lead to a third wide receiver and a second running back. While there might be some decent running backs available at this pick, Rashee Rice is too much of a value not to land on your team. He won’t be available in Round 7, so this is the best opportunity to draft him. Even if you don’t land Rice, there are other solid wide receiver options to consider.
Top Target: Rashee Rice (Player Profile)
Rice finished as WR27 and was a top-36 wide receiver in nearly 70% of his games despite playing less than 70% of his team’s offensive snaps in all but four games. By Week 14, he began receiving playing time comparable to a typical starting wide receiver, playing at least 75% of his team’s offensive snaps from Weeks 14-17. During this period, he ranked eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers. In the playoffs, Rice played at least 75% of the Kansas City Chiefs‘ offensive snaps in three of four games, averaging 6.5 receptions for 65.5 yards per game against some of the NFL’s best defenses.
If not for the potential suspension, he would be considered a top-10 wide receiver this season. Even if he is suspended for the first six games, his fantasy value would increase simply by knowing he would be available for the fantasy playoffs.
Possible Targets: Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen
Round 7, Pick 78: Draft a running back
Anyone with a middle-to-late pick is at a little bit of a disadvantage because there ends up being a clear weak point on the roster. In this case, it’s at running back. The players available here should be fantasy starters more often than not, but part of the strategy will be to load up on running backs over the next few rounds so a starter can be picked each week depending on matchups.
Top Target: Tony Pollard (Player Profile)
Pollard has earned the fourth-highest PFF overall grade among running backs over the past four seasons (91.3), behind only Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Expectations were high last season after the Dallas Cowboys let go of Ezekiel Elliott. Unfortunately, it took time for Pollard to recover from his leg injuries from the 2022 divisional playoff round. By Week 11, he was back to his former self. He was the highest-graded rusher from that point on, finishing as RB13. He was finally receiving the playing time he deserved but wasn’t getting the ball enough when he was on the field.
Now, he’s with the Tennessee Titans and competing for playing time with Tyjae Spears. The sophomore running back is also very talented, but given Pollard’s past production, he has a chance to be the lead back in the Joe Mixon role in Brian Callahan’s offense.
Possible Targets: Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams, Brian Robinson Jr.
Round 8, Pick 91: Draft a wide receiver
Typically, I lean running back in Round 8 with a few high-upside players available, but in this range, it’s the perfect chance to pick one of the very young wide receivers who was a high draft pick and has a lot of upside. While two of the wide receivers picked to this point should start every week, it’s possible the wide receivers available here could quickly turn into must-start players. If you would prefer, there are also solid running back options.
Top Target: Rome Odunze
Our draft guide calls him a super-sized Chris Olave, and he is the best contested-catch receiver in the class. Over the last two seasons, no wide receiver in college football had more deep targets or deep receiving yards. His 1,639 receiving yards were the most by a Power Five wide receiver last season. His 88.8 PFF receiving grade when lined up out wide was the highest among all Power Five receivers. The concern is he’s the third option in Chicago, but he’s already taken a snap over Keenan Allen in 12 personnel in the preseason. It wouldn’t be surprising if he becomes the every down receiver over Allen at some point this season. The San Francisco 49ers last season and Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles the year before showed a good team can maintain two top-15 fantasy wide receivers, making Odunze’s ceiling sky-high.
Possible Targets: Courtland Sutton, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., Tyler Lockett, DeAndre Hopkins
Round 9, Pick 102: Draft a running back
There have generally been a few running backs available here are either the lead running back or in a clear two-man competition with a lot of potential. After that, the running back quality drops off significantly. While this team doesn’t necessarily need another running back to achieve the best team, it’s fine to pick a running back here and lean more on wide receivers later.
Top Target: Devin Singletary (Player Profile)
Singletary has consistently graded well as a runner. He has recorded a 73.0-plus PFF rushing grade every season and at least a 78.0 mark in each of the past three seasons. He joins the New York Giants this season and should be the featured running back. He played in 29-of-33 snaps with the starters in the second preseason game, making it clear he will see more playing time than the vast majority of running backs picked ahead of him. Typically, feature backs are picked much higher, but he will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines and has never graded well as a receiver. It’s also possible that he won’t play on third downs. That should prevent him from getting picked in the first half of drafts, but he can be a steal in the second half.
Possible Targets: Chase Brown, Ezekiel Elliott, Jerome Ford, Nick Chubb, Gus Edwards
Round 10, Pick 115: Draft a running back
The next four rounds are mostly about picking your guys. If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to pick them, but I’d lean toward stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. I lean toward picking a running back and wide receiver at each of the next two pairs of picks, picking whichever players are at the top of the board.
Top Target: Jerome Ford
Last season, Ford was the Cleveland Browns primary running back while Nick Chubb was out for the year. He finished at RB16 with a top-24 finish in 12 weeks. Chubb will potentially return this season, but it’s unclear when he will be back and to what extent he will be able to play. Ford often split time with Kareem Hunt last season and will likely split with D’Onta Foreman for part of the season and Chubb for the other part. While that split might not leave Ford as a top-10 running back anytime soon, several more weeks in the top 24 is a clear possibility.
Possible Targets: Zach Charbonnet, Blake Corum, Chuba Hubbard, Trey Benson, Tyler Allgeier
Round 11, Pick 126: Draft a wide receiver
Top Target: Jakobi Meyers
Meyers finished last season as WR24 thanks to 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He’s getting drafted much later than that because he’s the clear second option behind Davante Adams and the Las Vegas Raiders have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league. The Raiders also drafted Brock Bowers in the first round, which could further push Meyers down the target ladder. The quarterback situation was arguably worse last season, and his ADP is much lower than his WR24 finish last season, making him a solid gamble late in drafts.
Possible Targets: Brandin Cooks, Mike Williams, Rashid Shaheed, Joshua Palmer, Jerry Jeudy
Round 12, Pick 139: Draft a wide receiver
Top Target: Rashid Shaheed
Shaheed is a top-25 wide receiver over the last two seasons in yards per route run at 1.95. He was consistently the Saints’ third wide receiver in a part-time role with an offensive coordinator who loved rotating players out and in. The Saints didn’t re-sign Michael Thomas, which has likely elevated Shaheed to the second wide receiver in a full-time role. He could be a clear fantasy starter if healthy, but staying healthy has been a problem. He’s missed the recent preseason games with a toe and foot injury.
Possible Targets: Gabe Davis, Dontayvion Wicks, Darnell Mooney, Adam Thielen, Ja’Lynn Polk
Round 13, Pick 150: Draft a running back
Top Target: Antonio Gibson (Player Profile)
Gibson’s fantasy value was minimal last season, as he was used as only a receiving back. He signed a three-year, $11.25 million contract with the New England Patriots — a bigger deal than free agents like Austin Ekeler, Zack Moss and Gus Edwards.
While he’s competing for playing time with Rhamondre Stevenson, there is a chance he will earn a significant role and be a feature back if Stevenson suffers an injury.
Possible Targets: Ray Davis, Khalil Herbert, Kendre Miller, MarShawn Lloyd, Bucky Irving
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
