• Tyreek Hill is the likely third-best option: Last season, the Dolphins wide receiver produced some of the most impressive per-play numbers of the PFF era.
• It’s OK to go hero running back: For managers drafting early, there are several opportunities to find value at wide receiver, making it acceptable to wait on selecting a second running back.
• LAST CHANCE for 25% off a PFF subscription: Unlock all of PFF’s fantasy content and tools, including full access to the fantasy football mock draft simulator, for 25% off using promo code PFF25 until Aug. 20.
Estimated reading time: 15 minutes
The Perfect Draft series integrates current ADPs from both expert and casual drafts to identify the best available picks at each selection. This draft strategy is tailored for 12-team PPR leagues, specifically for those picking third.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 20
Round 1, Pick 3: Draft a wide receiver
The strategy at this pick is simply to take the best wide receiver.
Star running back Christian McCaffrey is likely off the board, and it’s a little too early to select Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall. With several top-tier wide receivers available, you can confidently pick one and slot him into your starting lineup. And, ideally, you won’t have to worry about that position for the rest of the season.
Top Target: Tyreek Hill (Player Profile)
Hill just had one of the best wide receiver seasons in league history, especially considering the number of routes he ran. His per-route statistics were exceptional, and his per-game stats were historically great. The only concern about his performance in 2024 is his age; at 30, he’s past the prime for most wide receivers. His game relies on speed, and he will eventually slow down. While he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, it’s possible it could happen this year.
Possible Targets: Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua
Round 2, Pick 22: Draft a wide receiver
Value in Round 2 often lies at wide receiver or running back, depending on how the draft unfolds. In this scenario, it’s usually at wide receiver. With the top running backs off the board, you’re left with the choice of reaching for an elite quarterback or tight end or opting for another wide receiver. Despite already selecting one in the first round, wide receivers remain the best choice here.
Top Target: Drake London (Player Profile)
London has dealt with Desmond Ridder, Marcus Mariota and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback over the past two seasons — signal-callers who combined for a 54.5 PFF passing grade in that span, the second-worst mark in the league. During this period, they also recorded the eighth-highest rate of uncatchable, inaccurate passes of 10 or more yards (38.4%).
New Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins posted the third-best rate (29.0%) of uncatchable, inaccurate passes of 10 or more yards over that span. We anticipate Atlanta will see one of the most significant improvements in team passing grade this season. Last year, their passing grade was 49.4, while Cousins’ lowest grade over the past six seasons was 76.1.
London is a bit of a projection this year after falling outside the top 30 fantasy wide receivers in his first two seasons. A lot has changed, however, and there are plenty of reasons for optimism. A top-five fantasy season is a possibility, but there is plenty of risk because not all changes work out how we expect.
Several changes occurred around London, with the only constants being a potentially elite running back and tight end who will also have high target shares.
Possible Targets: Mike Evans, Nico Collins, Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, DeVonta Smith
Round 3, Pick 27: Draft a quarterback
A quarterback is the ideal pick at the start of Round 3. These perfect draft articles constantly mentioned Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts at the end of Round 2 last season, and they ended up finishing first and second in fantasy points at the position. Both quarterbacks have changed this offseason, but their talent and rushing production still leave them squarely at the top.
In contrast, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith were the other options to end Round 2 last season. All three were worthy of being fantasy starters, but none finished in the top 15 as their draft status implied. This year, the other options are a top tight end or other running backs and wide receivers who are likely fantasy starters but more of a gamble.
Top Target: Jalen Hurts
Hurts has averaged at least 21.0 fantasy points per start in every season of his career. While his tush push touchdowns have certainly helped his fantasy value, he’s one of just four quarterbacks with at least 2,200 rushing yards over the last three seasons while no one else is above 1,300. Considering that one of those four is a backup and the other two are at an age where we stop seeing as much rushing production from quarterbacks, Hurts could be the best rushing quarterback this season. He is also surrounded by a top-three receiving corps and offensive line, so even if his rushing touchdown total recedes, his fantasy production should remain high.
Possible Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott
