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What is Pac-12 men’s hoops?

It’s an existential question that will feel especially pressing in 2024, but it’s already been the conversation here for much of the past decade. After a three-bid league finished sixth in KenPom.com’s conference rankings last season — a disappointing follow-up to a much-hyped 2021 tourney run but one more in line with the Pac-12’s typical position in the post-2010 men’s landscape — can there be an immediate collective rebound on the margins?

Two dominant storylines

UCLA, USC and what comes next

Pac-12 basketball: For a limited time only!

For fans of this league, or really anyone for whom the proposed future feels anathema, the next two seasons are going to be a strange extended goodbye, the denouement of decades. In 2024, USC and UCLA will leave for the Big Ten. The idea of a Pac-whatever basketball league without the Bruins is especially hard to fathom. It doesn’t compute. And the acrimonious discussion of What It All Means for this wounded league isn’t going to go away any time soon — it dominated media day and will rhetorically hover over everything the Bruins and Trojans do, every heated road loss, this season and next.

In year two under Tommy Lloyd, can Arizona keep it rolling?

Few starts to a coaching career have ever gone as well as Lloyd’s did at Arizona last season; his first Wildcats team was a joyous, high-flying No. 1 seed. Even more impressive? It primarily comprised the parts left behind by predecessor Sean Miller, all recruited to play a diametrically opposed style.

There is longtime precedent for new coaches brewing special things with inherited guys; there is also precedent for that magic dissipating after a season or two. Lloyd’s second roster looks good enough to push UCLA at the top of the league, but it will be fascinating to see how this team’s specific trajectory impacts Arizona’s medium-term vibe.

Three players to watch

Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA: A consensus (or close) All-American and one of college ball’s preeminent gamers. There are few guys you’d rather have on the floor with you than Mick Cronin’s on-court spirit animal: unselfish, hyperintelligent, positionally flexible, fully committed.

Azuolas Tubelis, Arizona: Relative to the glossy brilliance of Bennedict Mathurin et al., Tubelis was an understated force for last year’s 33-4 Wildcats. But he efficiently led his team in usage rate and took its most shots, a steady offensive performer who will need to transcend into something more this time around.

Will Richardson, Oregon: Can Oregon get back on track? If so, it will require an all-league, level-raising performance from Richardson, who was merely OK (and sometimes not very good at all) for big swathes of last season and still averaged 14.1 points on 39.9 percent from 3.

Will Richardson is key for Oregon’s hopes to get back on track this season. (Soobum Im / USA Today)

Top newcomer

Adem Bona, UCLA: Fellow Bruin Amari Bailey will be in this discussion, too, but the loudest Westwood murmurs have surrounded fluid, athletic, 6-foot-10 center Bona, a five-star prospect who will play plenty of minutes (and, by all accounts, dunk the ball frequently) in a much more open UCLA frontcourt.

Coach who needs to win

Jerod Haase, Stanford: Stanford seems pretty chill, in that isn’t exactly a hotbed of “we lost a game? fire this guy” takes. Priorities are different in Palo Alto. (Johnny Dawkins went to his lone tourney in year six; his departure two years later was calm.) Still, this is Haase’s seventh season, he still hasn’t taken the Cardinal dancing, and this should be one of his best, most experienced rosters. The time is now.

Predicted league finish

1. UCLA: As if returning Jaquez and adding two five-star talents wasn’t enough, let’s not overlook the existence of Tyger Campbell, classical point guard extraordinaire. Campbell’s calm, efficient output sustains UCLA’s very high floor. The Bruins didn’t exactly live up to their own expectations a season ago, but they were very good, and this mix is both experienced enough and talented enough to meet or exceed that standard.

2. Arizona: Or maybe Arizona is the just best team in the league again? It’s not a crazy thought. As returning point guard/forward hybrid combos go, Kerr Kriisa and Tubelis are right there with Campbell and Jaquez, and the potential for breakout seasons from former reserves Pelle Larsson and Oumar Ballo is very high. There are just a few more questions here than in Westwood, at least at this point.

3. Oregon: The 2021-22 Oregon Ducks: Rare is a team’s dislike for each other so obvious, rare is a team less fun for the neutral to watch. Chemistry, or a lack thereof, was the culprit, and Dana Altman seems convinced these Ducks are the right ones to get things back on track. Altman has rarely been bad in Eugene, never in consecutive seasons. Richardson and the arrival of five-star center Kel’el Ware should sustain the pattern.

4. USC: Welcome to the post-Mobley era. Evan Mobley was (duh) a monster two seasons ago; Isaiah Mobley was a very good college big last year; USC’s fortunes waxed accordingly. Now Andy Enfield will be reorienting his team toward backcourt stars Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson in a lot with potential four-guard configurations, plus raw but promising freshman center Vincent Iwuchukwu, who is hopeful of rejoining the team after collapsing from a cardiac incident in July. The Trojans will expect to make the tournament for the third time in three years, which would be both a program milestone and a boon for the league.

5. Washington State: Call this a pledge of faith in Kyle Smith. The former San Fransisco coach has transformed a moribund Wazzu in his first three years, going from 11-21 in the final season of Ernie Kent’s essentially nonexistent tenure to 22-15 and 11-9 in the league a year ago. The Cougs finished 44th in adjusted efficiency, an unthinkable high relative to almost every season of the post-Tony Bennett era. Smith also has one of the best players in the conference in Mouhammed Gueye, who was an immediate defensive machine a year ago and who has drawn raves from his coach for his offensive development this summer. If he’s as good as Smith thinks, other not-insignificant losses from last year’s experienced roster can be overcome.

6. Stanford: Guess who got a single first-place vote in the preseason Pac-12 poll! Yes, someone in the voting both has some immense (and, OK, totally irrational) faith in the Cardinal, especially considering this is essentially the same team that finished 16-16 and 106th in adjusted efficiency a season ago. Still, experience matters, and the addition of Davidson transfer Michael Jones to a potential star trio of forward Spencer Jones and guard Harrison Ingram is an enticing one. If everyone congeals, a big leap is possible.

7. Arizona State: Haase isn’t the only coach in this league who needs to win; Bobby Hurley is also in at least minor need of a rebound. After getting ASU into reliable tournament position pre-pandemic, the last two Sun Devils teams have been disjointed and messy. The solution? A healthy Marcus Bagley! Bagley has been on campus the last two years, but hasn’t played much, and if he’s healthy he gives Hurley a genuine star to build around — with a backcourt that now includes highly regarded Michigan transfer Frankie Collins. Broadly speaking this is where the Pac-12 could improve the most: in its middle, on the margins, where teams with talent just have to put it all together. ASU is definitely one of those.

8. Colorado: It looks unlikely, anyway, that Colorado will be too. The Buffaloes didn’t figure things out until late a year ago, and even when they were good (winning seven of their final eight in the regular season) the only remotely good win came over Arizona at home. Now the Buffs are without leading scorer and NBA draftee Jabari Walker and rebuilding around Tristan da Silva — a nice, versatile 6-foot-10 big but one who will have to dominate to elevate this group.

9. Washington: Give Washington this much: It didn’t go 5-21 again. The 2020-21 campaign was among the wildest disasters in recent college hoops memory, especially given the momentum Mike Hopkins had appeared to be building in his first two seasons. Last year was an improvement from that low bar, anyway, and this year could be too. Alongside three other impact players, Kentucky wing Keion Brooks has arrived via the portal, an avatar for the type of athletic, rangy zone defense that helped Hopkins start so strongly at UW in the first place.

10. Utah: Hiring Craig Smith — the man who helmed the three best seasons of any Utah State fan’s life since the Stew Morrill heyday in the mid-aughts — still feels like a canny call. You can’t help but think Smith will get this thing going eventually, even if this season might be one too soon. Beyond star center Brendan Carlson, a 7-footer who shot 17-of-55 from 3 last season, by the way, this roster is still led by culture-setters like Marco Anthony (who followed Smith from Utah State), but Wisconsin transfer Ben Carlson could add some high-major quality as soon as this year.

11. Cal: Give it up for Mark Fox; this man does not fear a difficult job. A season after Tom Crean’s fall at Georgia led Bulldogs fans to ponder whether it was simply impossible to win there, longtime former Georgia coach Fox continues to preside over the basketball proceedings in Berkeley, where, well, high-major athletics aren’t exactly top of mind, let’s say. Fox did lure one fascinating piece in the portal: former Kentucky and Texas guard Devin Askew, who was an elite high school prospect suffering from occasional, terminal bouts of self-doubt. If Fox actualizes Askew — who is still just 20! — Cal will be more interesting than it has been in quite some time.

12. Oregon State: Under Wayne Tinkle, Oregon State is typically one of two things: better than it should be (2016 tourney! 2021 Elite Eight!) or utterly abject. Coming off a three-win season, well, take a wild guess.

(Top photo of Tyger Campbell: Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA Today)