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No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Stetson expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament East Region matchup

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Stetson expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament East Region matchup

The No. 1 overall seeded UConn Huskies take on the East Region’s No. 16 seed, the Stetson Hatters, Friday at 2:45 p.m. ET in Brooklyn, N.Y. (you can get tickets here). Let’s dive right in!

The Teams

UConn Huskies (31-3, 18-2 Big East)

It’s easy to say nice things about the Huskies, who are not only the defending national champions but also the top overall seed in this tourney and the top-rated team on KenPom. This year’s team plays slower than last year’s, ranking outside the top 300 in tempo. The Huskies were the underdog once this season — a Dec. 1 loss at Kansas. — The Athletic

UConn is the best team in college basketball. The Huskies are peaking at the right time. They have an All-America point guard in Newton who is flanked by an athletic, slashing playmaker in Castle and one of the toughest, savviest players in the country in Spencer. Alex Karaban is as good a floor-spacer as you’ll find at the four anywhere, and Cling Kong is going to be a lottery pick for a reason. UConn will be the favorite in every game they play in the Big Dance. —Rob Dauster, The Field of 68

Stetson Hatters (22-12, 11-5 ASun)

The Stetson Hatters have their first NCAA bid, as does Donnie Jones, after 6-foot-3 junior guard Jalen Blackmon poured in a career-high 43 points in the Atlantic Sun Tournament title game.

This team looked to be in trouble in February when 6-foot-9 senior forward Josh Smith was lost for the season to a knee injury, but Jones went with a four-guard lineup and his perimeter group — led by Blackmon and his 21.5 points a game — got cooking. Stephan Swenson is one of three other players averaging double figures in scoring (13.8), and he creates much of the offense (5.9 assists per game).

The Hatters do have size with Aubin Gateretse (11.8 points, 7.6 rebounds per game) and 7-footer Treyton Thompson. But mostly, this team specializes in getting shots up and hitting at a high rate. Stetson is 37th nationally in 3-point accuracy (36.5 percent). The Hatters are 53rd in effective field-goal percentage (53.4), and they shoot great from the line as well — 76.3 percent.

The defensive numbers are not good — this team is right around 350th in defensive efficiency. But those bigs help some. Stetson’s block percentage of 8.1 percent ranks in the top 90 nationally. The Hatters won 85-82 at UCF and gave Cincinnati a tough game on the road before falling 83-75. They figure to have a tough time getting stops. But any team that shoots it this well has a chance to make things interesting. — Joe Rexrode

The Athletic’s model after 1,000,000 simulations predicts the score will be:

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Stetson Odds

Updated live, via BetMGM

Expert Picks

Library of Madness

(Top photo: Mitchell Layton/Getty Images,  Sarah Stier/Getty Images)





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