• Bet Raiders -1.5 at Saints: Vegas’ early bye week a blessing?
• Saints are 2-15 ATS since 2014 when hosting AFC opponents.
• Bet Cardinals alt spread -5.5 at Vikings: DeAndre Hopkins is back, while the Vikings are priced as 9th-best team — not by their efficiency but seemingly because of their 5-1 record, even against weak opponents.
Last updated: Oct. 30, 9:20 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
Here are PFF staff best bets in Week 8:
Judah Fortgang: Bet Arizona Cardinals alt spread -5.5 @ Minnesota Vikings
DeAndre Hopkins is back, and his increasing returns to a team desperately needing success on scripted plays suggests the Cardinals will improve an offense that has been about league average and is being priced as such. The Vikings are priced as 9th-best team — not by their efficiency but seemingly because of their 5-1 record, even against weak opponents. Add in matchup edges for Arizona’s blitz-happy defense, and with Hopkins teeing off against PFF’s 90th-ranked corner, and this could be a long day for Minnesota and a nice tails cash for us.
Tommy Jurgens: Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 at New Orleans Saints
The Raiders’ early bye week might have been a blessing for a team whose 2-4 record is likely a flukey outcome resulting from a few consequential plays. The Saints have been forced to shuffle their starting lineup to the point of detriment, and the team is likely overvalued at home, where they’re 2-15 ATS since 2014 when hosting AFC opponents.
Timo Riske: Bet New York Jets +2.5 vs New England Patriots
• Jets have won as underdogs in four straight games: They closed as a favorite against the Broncos, but were dogs through the week. The angle on this game is twofold: First of all, I trust the Jets’ defense to make this a low-scoring game, as they can put Sauce Gardner on an island against any Patriots receiver and scheme against the remaining receivers. The second point is simply that the Jets’ passing game has been so terrible in recent weeks that it can only get better from here. The Patriots had their fair share of issues with scrambling QBs this season, failing to stop Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields, so Zach Wilson might eventually turn one of his frequent scramble drills outside the pocket into a big play.
Richard Janvrin: Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD (+100) vs Miami Dolphins
Detroit appears to be getting its best receiver back in St. Brown, who left early in Week 7 to enter concussion protocol but didn’t suffer a brain injury. This is fantastic news. Before the injury, St. Brown scored a touchdown in two of four games and saw nine or more targets in three of those four games. He doesn’t have a massive average depth of target (5.1), but St. Brown averages 9.8 yards per reception, indicating that he can make things happen after the catch. This week, he draws Dolphins cornerback Justin Bethelwho’s played in just two games this year and surrendered 54 yards on seven catches and a touchdown last week. Bethel, a player in the NFL since 2012, has played 57 coverage snaps this year — the most he’s played in a season since 2017.
PFF Greenline top play: Pittsburgh Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth — Under 3.5 receptions (+124) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Greenline edge of 17.7% is the highest Sunday in Philadelphia, where Eagles S Kyzir White is playing his best football, allowing only .62 yards per route covered. Our TE Matchup Chart shows only a slight 2% advantage for Freiermuth, who’s gone over in 3/6 games this season.
