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NFL Betting 101: Creating the Perfect Parlay, including best Week 7 parlay bet | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks

NFL Betting 101: Creating the Perfect Parlay, including best Week 7 parlay bet | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks


Parlay Bucs -13 at Panthers + Jets ml at Broncos + Patriots +8 vs Bears (+568 BetMGM): Target these three anemic offenses in Week 7 mismatches with dangerous defenses

• Parlays combine multiple legs in one wager, in which each leg must win to return a profit.

• Different types of parlays include single-game parlays, teasers and round robins.

Last updated: Sunday Oct. 23, 9:00 a.m.

Estimated reading time: 5 mins

Creating the perfect parlay can win a lot of money — even with a small wager. 

In this article, we’ll build an excellent parlay readers can wager on in Week 7 of the NFL season and continue to explain parlays in detail.

BET: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -13 (-110); NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -8 (-110); NEW YORK JETS ML (-105) — BETMGM PARLAY ODDS: +568

• Bucs -13 vs. Panthers (-110): On the road against the Carolina Panthers, the Buccaneers were -11 before Christian McCaffrey was traded in a mid-week blockbuster to the San Francisco 49ers. Now, without McCaffrey, you look around the Panthers roster, and the path for them to scoring any points seems almost impossible. Last week, quarterback P.J. Walker, who draws the start this week, completed 10 passes for 60 yards. The Panthers have a solid pass rush against the porous Buccaneers’ defensive line, but their secondary has some holes. Nonetheless, the Buccaneers might only need 20 points, if that, to cover this -13 number. The scoring avenues for the home team are few and far between. 

• Patriots -8 (-110): Like the Panthers, the Chicago Bears’ scoring options Monday night appear limited. What makes it even worse for them is that they’re on the road against the Patriots. The Bears have little-to-no WR talent. Still, any possible production will be thwarted by Patriots rookie Jack Jones, our top-graded cornerback, with a PFF 91.7 coverage grade. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is notorious for taking away the opposing team’s top threat. In this game, that’s likely quarterback Justin Fields. The Patriots will contain his rushing attack, and our player prop tool gives Fields’ under 0.5 passing touchdowns a 7.6% of value. 

• Jets ML (-120): Closing in on a pick ’em, we’re taking the Jets on the road over the Denver Broncos, who are excellent on defense but atrocious on offense, where they’ll start Brett Rypien in place of injured star Russell Wilson. Against the Jets, the Broncos will go up against a defensive line that includes three players with a 76.4 or higher pass-rush grade: John Franklin-Myers, Quinnen Williams, and Carl Lawson. The Broncos have great receivers, but the offense cannot make anything happen with them. Rypien will throw into a secondary with both D.J. Reed Jr. and Sauce Gardner. They possess two of the five lowest passer ratings allowed this season, with 51.2 and 54.2, respectively. This will be a defensive battle in which the Jets will scrape by. 


What Is A Parlay?

A parlay is a type of sports bet where one wagers on multiple games on one ticket. A bettor needs each game, or leg, in the parlay to result in a win for the parlay wager to be successful. A parlay requires a minimum of two legs but can go as high as 15 or more, depending on the online sportsbook. 

It’s hard enough to win a single bet, so with a parlay and multiple legs, bettors receive odds that not only take into account the individual legs’ odds, they account for the additional risk for each leg added. 

Here’s an example of a parlay, courtesy of BetMGM: 

• Buccaneers -13 (-105)

• Jets +1 (-110)

• Patriots -8 (-110)

While each leg has -110 odds, the parlay odds on this are +568. 

So, at +568, if you wager $100 on this parlay and win, you’ll receive $568 in profit. 

To show the value, let’s say you had a budget of $100 and wagered $33 each on the three legs above. 

If you did this, you’d win $33 on each -110 leg and $34.43 on the -105 leg, resulting in just over $100 in profit instead of the $611. 

Same Game Parlays

Since sports betting became possible in May 2018, when the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act was overturned, sportsbooks have found ways to get creative to attract new players. Among the more popular attractions are Same Game Parlays, where you can parlay together multiple bets from a single game. 

In the past, this wasn’t possible. Still, this type of wager allows players to have more upside, especially as correlated parlays, hopefully. 

Here’s an example of a Same Game Parlay, using the Buccaneers at Panthers game from Week 7 of the 2022-23 NFL season:

• Buccaneers -12.5 (-120)

• Chris Godwin Any Time TD (+150)

• Panthers Under 10.5 Points (+110)

• Parlay Odds: +475

Concentrating on one game allows for more focused analysis and, as mentioned, building correlated parlays.

Correlated parlays are when the legs are tied together, which, by being in the same game, calls for that. So, if you think the Buccaneers will win easily and the Panthers won’t score, you can bet on the Buccaneers’ point spread, the under on the Panthers’ points, and pick a player on the Buccaneers to score a touchdown, as an example. 

Teasers

One specific type of parlay, a teaser allows bettors to manipulate point spreads or totals that could bridge the gap of making a bet tolerable while sacrificing odds.

Bettors choose from 6-, 6.5-, or 7-point teasers in the NFL.

Let’s use the parlay above with a six-point teaser. 

• Buccaneers -13 (-105) turns into Buccaneers -7

• Jets +1 (-110) turns into Jets +7

• Patriots -8 (-110) turns into Patriots -2

Original odds: +611

Six-point teaser odds: +160

The odds are reduced drastically with the point spreads changing by six points in favor of the bettors’ wager. 

Round Robin

To participate in a Round Robin wager, a bettor’s parlay must have three or more legs. 

The three legs are necessary because a Round Robin wager takes the legs a bettor chooses and creates as many parlays as possible.

With a three-leg parlay, bettors have three two-leg parlays to wager on. This allows a bettor to diversify the wagers across multiple formations of the original parlay.

However, a bettor must pick an amount to wager per Round Robin choice. 

 



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