Friday’s first-round game between the No. 11 New Mexico Lobos and No. 6 Clemson Tigers might be a bracket-breaker — except that many brackets probably picked New Mexico to win it.
The lower-seeded Lobos are favored in the odds and by our team, with our Bracket Breaker experts saying a New Mexico win shouldn’t be considered an upset. And yet here we are: New Mexico is the lower seed, but Clemson is the (slight) odds underdog.
So, let’s dig into the details on each team, plus the game odds and staff picks for New Mexico vs. Clemson. We’ve also got a projection for the point spread, which is closer than you might think. (So maybe it will break some brackets after all.)
Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans’ The Gaming Juice.
No. 11 New Mexico Lobos
Strengths: New Mexico plays fast (top 10 in adjusted tempo per KenPom), but it takes care of the ball (top 20 in offensive turnover rate) and features a frontcourt in Nelly Junior Joseph and JT Toppin that hits the offensive glass. The Lobos are talented enough to play with almost anyone.
Weaknesses: The Lobos needed game-winning shots to beat UT Arlington and New Mexico State and are 4-3 in games decided by a basket. If they shot better from the perimeter (33.4 percent from 3), they’d blow out teams.
Outlook: Only Kentucky’s backcourt features two quicker, more explosive players. Jaelen House — a 6-foot senior who shrugged off injuries at the start of the season — is the heart and soul of the team. His production (16.1 ppg, 3.5 apg, 2.3 spg) is down from previous years, but he’s a dynamic offensive player and a pest on defense. Donovan Dent, a 6-foot-2 sophomore, can score (14.3 ppg) and finish (three game-winning shots this season). They’re capable of carrying the Lobos to two wins and the second week.
—Mike Miller
No. 6 Clemson Tigers
The Tigers can battle anyone for 40 minutes. But how much is left in the tank?
Strengths: Like Brad Brownell’s best team at Clemson — the 2017-18 squad that reached the Sweet 16 — these Tigers can rebound, and that trait can be an equalizer, as bona fide contenders like North Carolina and Alabama learned during the regular season. Ian Schieffelin (9.6 rebounds per game during the regular season) and PJ Hall (6.8) set the tone on the glass, and Chase Hunter and Joseph Girard III make up a veteran starting backcourt.
Weaknesses: After Hall, the Tigers’ leading scorer and versatile man in the middle, the Tigers don’t have a surplus of offensive options — although Girard is never too far away from a hot streak from deep. If they run into an opponent with a bombs-away approach, as Boston College brought in an ACC tourney blowout upset, keeping pace is no guarantee. Is the fact that Clemson is 0-5 in games decided by three points or fewer since mid-December a product of bad luck … or a harbinger of March heartbreak?
Outlook: Clemson’s nightmare 3-5 January dropped it off the national radar, but the team that recovered in the ensuing six weeks to secure a bid looks like one you don’t have to worry about no-showing — at least, it did, until last week’s early ACC Tournament exit. Do the Tigers do anything well enough (besides make their free throws, at a sterling 79.0 percent clip) to talk anyone into predicting a deep run?
—Eric Single
How to watch New Mexico vs. Clemson
What: West Region, First Round
Tipoff time: 3:10 p.m. ET Friday
TV: truTV
Location: Memphis
New Mexico vs. Clemson odds
Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.
Expert picks
Austin Mock’s model projection: New Mexico by 1, total 149
See Austin Mock’s best futures bets.
Players to watch
New Mexico
- Donovan Dent, sophomore guard, second-team All-MWC
- JT Toppin, freshman forward, second-team All-MWC
- Jaelen House, graduate guard, third-team All-MWC
Clemson
- PJ Hall, senior center, first-team All-ACC
More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage
(Photo of JT Toppin: Ian Maule / Getty Images)
