The 7-seed vs. 10-seed game in the West Region of the NCAA Tournament features No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Nevada — and it’s a matchup that has our experts evenly split.
After a strong 15-1 start to the season, the Nevada Wolf Pack struggled more over the final months, but are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games and have hit the over in the last six. Dayton, too, has hit the over in six of their last seven games. Dayton’s last NCAA Tournament game win was back in 2015. Nevada made the Sweet 16 in 2018.
We’ve got a breakdown of the two teams below: strengths and weaknesses, odds, score projections and expert picks. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans’ The Gaming Juice.
No. 10 Nevada has an excellent backcourt
Steve Alford’s best team at Nevada has a backcourt that’s as good as any.
Strengths: When you talk about Nevada, you have to start with their backcourt. Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear were probably the best backcourt in the Mountain West and could match up well with any pair of guards in college basketball this season. That duo is the engine for an offense that ranked third in efficiency in the Mountain West this season. The Wolf Pack were also the hottest team in the conference over the final month of the regular season despite the fact that Blackshear missed some time.
Weaknesses: Nevada relies on being able to get to the free-throw line more than anyone else in the Big Dance. We know that the NCAA Tournament is officiated differently. Will they get the benefit of a friendly whistle when facing off with a team from one of the Big Six leagues?
Outlook: The Wolf Pack have three things going for them right now. First, they’ve been on fire in February and March, going 10-2 entering the Big Dance. Second, they have a pair of excellent guards, and guard play matters more than anything else in the NCAA Tournament. Third, they’ve beaten strong teams like Washington and TCU. The Wolf Pack can win a game or two in this tournament.
—Rob Dauster
No. 7 Dayton soars on offense
With an uncontainable big man in DaRon Holmes and a soaring offense, Dayton is a disrupter.
Strengths: Dayton can score the basketball. Over its final 10 regular-season games, the Flyers ranked in the top five in effective field-goal percentage offense. DaRon Holmes II is a mauler in the post. His Gumby-like length, pivot moves and athleticism explain why he’s racked up dozens of dunks this year. He also nets 38.5 percent from distance. With Holmes flanked by Koby Brea (49.2 percent on 3-pointers), Kobe Elvis (37.5 percent) and Nate Santos (42.7 percent), Dayton is undoubtedly a dynamite offensive team. The Flyers limit opponents’ second-chance opportunities.
Weaknesses: It’s too bad Obi Toppin is no longer wearing the Flyers red. Defensively, Anthony Grant’s group is a liability. Coming unraveled in the category down the regular-season homestretch, the Flyers ranked poorly nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense. Challenging shots along the perimeter wasn’t especially problematic, but competitors gashed them on near-proximity opportunities. The Flyers turned the ball over on 15.8 percent of their possessions this season.
Outlook: Dayton stands at No. 40 in all-time wins; it’s a school with a rich basketball history. However, the Flyers have one Sweet 16 appearance (2014) since the days when parachute pants were fashionable. Due to defensive inadequacies, turnover problems, absent depth and a relatively unchallenging schedule, they’re unlikely to survive the first weekend, no matter how unrestrainable Holmes may be.
—Brad Evans
How to watch Nevada vs. Dayton
What: West Region, First Round
Tipoff time: 4:40 p.m. ET Thursday
TV: TBS
Location: Salt Lake City, UT
Nevada vs. Dayton odds
Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.
Expert picks
Austin Mock’s model projection: Nevada by 1.5, Total 139.1
See Austin Mock’s best futures bets.
Players to watch
Nevada
- Kenan Blackshear, graduate guard, second-team All-MWC
- Jarod Lucas, graduate guard, second-team All-MWC
- Nick Davidson, sophomore forward, third-team All-MWC
Dayton
- DaRon Holmes II, junior forward, A-10 Co-Player of the Year, A-10 Defensive Player of the Year, first-team All-A-10
- Nate Santos, junior forward, third-team All-A-10
More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage
(Photo of DaRon Holmes II: Mitchell Layton / Getty Images)
