The NCAA Tournament is one of the best sporting events of the year, and with so much action in 67 games over the next three weeks, we can look to find value across the board.
Now, that doesn’t mean rushing into it and betting every game on the board. We still need to find that value to make it worthwhile placing a wager. So I’ll be using my college basketball projection model to find value against the spread and on totals. If you’re interested in my bracket projections, I simulated the tournament and have found some value in the future market as well.
As always, shop around for the best price, as this will add up in the long run.
Best bets on men’s First Four and first round
All plays are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs, unless otherwise noted. I’m also sharing a “worst price to bet,” which is the last number that I would bet before the game no longer has enough value to make a bet. All odds are from BetMGM.
Alabama State vs. Saint Francis (PA) under 138.5 (-110)
My model has Saint Francis as a below-average-paced team and Alabama State as an average one. I do think Alabama State has slowed things down a bit over their last 10 games or so, which helps this bet as well. And to make things better for this under, both of these teams aren’t great on the offensive end, don’t live on the offensive glass and don’t live at the free throw line. That means a lot of shots are going to have to fall for this game to get above this total.
- Worst price to bet: Under 137.5 (-110)
San Diego State vs. North Carolina under 142.5 (-110)
Back-to-back unders to kick off March Madness? Yikes. Well, let’s hope there are lids on the baskets in Dayton tonight. We will need San Diego State’s defense to show up here to slow down the Tar Heels’ offense, and if that happens, we might be in for an easy under. North Carolina does play at an above-average pace, but San Diego State wants to play slow and with their defense. The plus side for North Carolina is that they’re an excellent defensive-rebounding team, so San Diego State shouldn’t see a ton of opportunities on the offensive glass. This edge side is quite a bit larger than the other under bet as my model projects this game into the mid-130s.
- Worst price to bet: Under 140.5 (-110)
Drake vs. Missouri over 132.5 (-110)
Hey, look! An over. This one will be interesting because Drake plays as slow as anyone in the country, and I’m a bit worried that they’ll be able to get extra possessions on the offensive glass and slow the game down even more. But let’s hope they get quick put-backs. On the other end of the court, Drake doesn’t defend the paint all that well, and Missouri is one of the best in the country at getting the ball to the rack. I’m hoping that Missouri’s offense is too much for Drake’s defense and that factor speeds up the Drake offense a bit. My projection is in the upper 130s here.
- Worst price to bet: Over 134.5 (-110)
UNC Wilmington vs. Texas Tech over 143.5 (-110)
It’s hard for me to see UNC Wilmington stopping Texas Tech’s offense very often in this game. For starters, UNC Wilmington gives up a ton of 3s on defense, and Texas Tech loves to shoot the deep ball, and they shoot it well. Both teams play slow, which is a concern, but I think there will be enough second chances on the offensive glass to increase offensive efficiency to offset the slow-paced nature of this game.
- Worst price to bet: Over 144.5 (-110)
Liberty +7.5 (-110) vs. Oregon
When taking an underdog in the NCAA Tournament, there is always a chance that the athleticism is just too much, and that’s true in this matchup. Add in the fact that Liberty hasn’t really played anyone all season long, and I get even more nervous. But … there is always a but. Liberty is shooting almost 40 percent from the 3-point line this season and almost 58 percent inside the arc. If that at all translates against Oregon, they’ll very much be alive for an upset. Oregon isn’t exactly great at anything, but they don’t have a glaring weakness either. I do think the Ducks are a bit overrated heading into the tournament after getting hot to end the year. However, I think there might be a bit of Fool’s Gold here, as Oregon was 10-3 in close games this season.
- Worst price to bet: Liberty +7 (-110)
(Photo of Nate Bittle: Soobum Im / Getty Images)
