Single Post

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

Fourteen automatic bids to the 2024 NCAA Tournament have now been awarded, and 33 teams are in. Here’s how that math makes sense:

First ballots were submitted about an hour ago. 19 teams voted into the field. Little lower than normal but not surprising given the new max number one could vote in (24 vs. 36). 42 teams made it to the under consideration board, and all regular season champs were put there too.

— David Worlock (@DavidWorlock) March 13, 2024

The selection committee began its work on Wednesday and voted 19 teams into the field. Though we don’t know which those are, their names wouldn’t be surprising, as we’re talking about the cream of the crop here. But there is one thing that will complicate the seeding of at least two of these shoo-ins: injuries.

Kansas went into the Big 12 tournament without its two best players — Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson — and promptly got blown out by Cincinnati. Meanwhile, Marquette announced that All-America point guard Tyler Kolek wouldn’t play in the Big East tournament with his lingering oblique injury. Both teams expressed confidence that their stars would be back and healthy for the NCAA Tournament. But how can we know for sure?

The committee is undoubtedly getting all the latest information on these and other injuries through its conference reporting system. It’s possible, likely even, that Kansas and Marquette have given them more details and assurance than the public has received. Still, this is a tough place to be. Both teams’ losses down the stretch — the Jayhawks lost by 30 at Houston in the regular-season finale and have dropped four of their past five, while the Golden Eagles have lost two of their last three without Kolek — can be attributed partially if not substantially to the injuries. But clearly, neither team is the same without their stars. And the committee won’t have proof that they will in fact be back to full strength before Selection Sunday.

Nor do we have a great idea of what to do here. With the Jayhawks suffering their 10th loss amid such uncertainty, we bumped them down to a No. 4 seed during our fresh scrub of the bracket. But a full-bore Kansas team is deserving of at least a No. 3 seed. Luckily, we’ve got a few more days to think this over.

Staying in the Big 12, TCU helped itself with a win over injury-riddled Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs probably weren’t in any real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament, but now they’re safely away from First Four territory. Texas, on the other hand, lost to Kansas State. The Longhorns are also fine — but every loss shines a brighter light on their weak nonconference schedule. New Mexico, Providence and Wake Forest avoided bad losses and lived to fight for their bubble lives another day. Villanova also barely avoided what would have been one of the all-time flops against DePaul, but if the selection committee was watching that one — and they probably were — then that’s almost as bad as a loss for the Wildcats’ hopes.

Meanwhile, Clemson dropped its ACC tournament opener to Boston College; the Tigers moved back a couple spots but didn’t lose a seed line. Yet. The door is open for a team like Washington State, Florida or Saint Mary’s to pass by in the next couple of days.

And the really good stuff hasn’t even started yet. Buckle up.

The Bracket Central series is part of a partnership with E*TRADE.

The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of TCU’s Emanuel Miller: Jon Robichaud / AP)