The SPs at the top of the pricing tiers are going to be popular tonight. Anyone from Logan Webb, Woo, Pivetta, Eovaldi, Imanaga and Gore gets a decent projection tonight. All of these pitchers are projected for 5.5-6.5 Ks tonight and 3.5 ERAs (Pivetta, Webb, Eovaldi, and Imanaga) or 4s (Woo, Gore). A case can be made for any of these pitchers, but the clear standout option tonight is Dean Kremer at only 8k vs the lowly Rockies.
Most people will be tempted to roster Kremer and one of these higher priced SPs. I am always interested in fading high priced pitchers, but Kremer has a few things going for him. His K/BB is 19/6, which shows generally good control, and COL is the 2nd worst team playing in away games with a .268 team wOBA. For context, Logan Webb is allowing a .281 wOBA to RHBs over his career. Kremer’s opponent puts him right up with the other elite pitchers tonight, and rostering Kremer allows you to save $1300 off of Webb’s price. I am not wholly convinced that Kremer will win the tourneys tonight, but he is a good play.
In terms of stacks, the Razzball Stackonator is predicting that the Yankees stacks will lead the way, followed closely by Tampa Bay stacks and Dodgers stacks. TB and CIN are playing on a warm/humid day in Great American Small Park, which could increase HRs. TB has led the league in SBs over the last 30 days. HRs + SBs is a good recipe for DFS success.
BAL shows some viability as a team to be stacked tonight. That might be the best way to play Dean Kremer. I’m never worried about the COL pitching staff. TOR is always viable as a low cost stack that can score bunches of runs based on their ability to constantly put the ball in play.
Remember that if you play a higher owned stack (NYY, BAL, TB, etc) make sure to explore the options in rosters spots 7-9. It’s always important to find low owned plays and save salary, and when a team scores 10+ runs, those DFS points are often littered throughout the lineup.
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Dean Kremer, SP: $8,000 – This is a roster decision based on the opponent, which means as long as Kremer is in control of his pitches and maintains his velo, he should have a good game. There is a lot we cannot predict, but this sets up really well.
Logan Webb, SP: $9,300 – We should be looking for upside tonight, and Webb can do that through both Ks and IP. The Mets have a solid power profile as a team, but a really low wOBA (.306) over the last 30 days, which helps predict runs scored.
Carson Kelly, C: $4,200 – Kelly has been putting together a great season, especially against right handed pitching. Adrian Houser is going to turn into a pumpkin at some point. Even if the Cubs score a lot of runs, most of the good targets play in the OF and cost a lot. The Cubs are a good team and should be pushing the White Sox pitching staff all the way through 9 innings.
Freddie Freeman, 1B: $4,300 – Freeman is not hitting many HRs this year, so he really needs the rest of the Dodgers lineup to be thriving in order to make sense. I like the Dodgers as a low-owned stack tonight. Ohtani, Pages, and Will Smith continue to carry the offense, but if Freddy and a couple others get involved (or better yet, Taijuan Walker has a bad game) this Dodgers offense will win a tourney tonight.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B: $5,400 – Chisholm is having one of his best seasons. He has a 17% barrel rate this year, and while all the Yankees struggle to make great contact, when they do, it’s a lot of big flies. I like Chisholm on his own or as a part of a stack tonight.
Manny Machado, 3B: $4,600 – It is fun to get the Padres out of San Diego and into a hot park with good hitting weather. The top of that lineup stacks up with every other team (the bottom part not so much), and they will be doing most of the work tonight vs. Mikolas, a totally attackable pitcher.
Mookie Betts, SS: $4,500 – There is a new born baby in my family with “Mookie” as a middle name. Betts is also returning to Boston and will get a huge boost as a RHB in that park. I like the underowned Dodgers tonight!
Josh Lowe, OF: $4,800 – Lowe has the highest chance for a steal and a blast tonight. He is the posterboy for playing TB tonight, speed and power, so I better roster him if I go that route.
Trent Grisham, OF: $4,200 – He will lead off tonight and be among the most likely to hit a HR tonight. The Yankees occupy those top spots, and Grisham is one I could play alone or as part of a stack.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Most rain should not affect games or pitching decisions, but keep a look out for what happens in KC tonight – we may see a delay or PPd.
Doing Lines In Vegas
N/A
