Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
The college basketball season’s long journey is now reaching its frenzied finale. The NCAA Tournament bracket is officially here, and we can now analyze real matchups and regions.
The list below marks our first attempt to rank the 16 teams most likely to cut down the nets in San Antonio, factoring in team quality alongside potential paths through the NCAA Tournament. We’ll revisit these rankings after each round, gauging whose stock has improved or dropped based on the quality of their play and any upsets that might clear the way for a deep run.
Determining how much weight to place on a team’s current form is a tricky part of this analysis. Florida, for example, is clearly rolling of late, having won the SEC tournament while capturing two wins over Alabama and another over Tennessee in the past two weeks. How high should that hot streak vault the Gators? In the same vein, should No. 1 overall seed Auburn, losers of three of its last four, be knocked down the list?
Unsurprisingly, the SEC is well-represented here. The league established itself as a juggernaut in nonconference play and was rewarded with a tournament-record 14 teams earning bids, including four of the top eight seeds. However, the SEC does not top these rankings. So, who does?
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The ACC regular season and tournament champion sits atop the rankings at KenPom and Evan Miya (second at Bart Torvik). Cooper Flagg’s ankle injury is the most pressing concern, but as long as he is fine by the Sweet 16, the Blue Devils’ chances of winning it all should be unaffected. Duke still beat Louisville by double-digits in the ACC final without Flagg, so Jon Scheyer’s squad should not have much trouble with the winners of American/Mount Saint Mary’s and Mississippi State/Baylor on the first weekend.
No. 16 American/Mount St. Mary’s
Friday
The Gators are a national darling right now after storming through the SEC tournament. They won all three games by at least nine points, and their only loss since Feb. 1 was a final-minute coin flip at Georgia on Feb. 25. Florida is deep, talented and physical, and it has a true star in scoring guard Walter Clayton Jr. If there is one hesitation, it is that Gators coach Todd Golden has never won an NCAA Tournament game. Can he suddenly win six in a row?
No. 16 Norfolk State
Friday
The best team in the country for the season’s first four months, Auburn has suddenly looked mortal ever since clinching the SEC regular season title. Johni Broome remains a star, and the big lefty nearly carried the Tigers to a win over Tennessee in the SEC tournament semifinals. But Auburn seems to lack the “it” factor it carried for most of the season. Plus, the Tigers are always vulnerable to a Chad Baker-Mazara meltdown.
No. 16 Alabama State/Saint Francis
Thursday
Like Duke, Houston is a double champion, having won the Big 12 regular season and tournament titles. The Cougars are a typical Kelvin Sampson team in all of the best ways: elite defensively, physical, relentless on the offensive glass. But this team is also one of the best perimeter shooting teams in the country, adding an element of offensive explosiveness past Houston teams have lacked. The Cougars do have a lingering health question: Key forward J’Wan Roberts has an ankle injury that could linger into the NCAA Tournament.
Rick Pitino’s Red Storm won the Big East regular season and tournament championships thanks to arguably the best defense in college basketball. RJ Luis Jr. was the Big East’s player of the year, but Zuby Ejiofor and Kadary Richmond are also capable of taking over games. The Johnnies have just one loss since the calendar flipped to 2025.
The Crimson Tide have not quite matched their sky-high preseason expectations, but this is still an explosive offense led by veteran All-America guard Mark Sears. Another star from Alabama’s 2024 Final Four run, Grant Nelson, injured his knee against Florida in the SEC tournament, though, and the Tide’s ceiling would lower if he ended up missing games. Alabama’s defense has also been leaky most of the season, a potential Achilles’ heel against other top teams.
No. 15 Robert Morris
Friday
Texas Tech is off to Wichita to face UNC Wilmington, but perhaps its most important battle over the next few days is against the injury bug. Key starters Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian missed the Red Raiders’ Big 12 tournament semifinal loss to Arizona, and although coach Grant McCasland has already said they will be available, they need to be the best versions of themselves for Texas Tech to go deep into the tournament.
No. 14 UNC Wilmington
Thursday
The Vols could not take down Florida in the SEC tournament title game, but their win against Auburn in the semifinals illustrates their upside. Tennessee has an extremely veteran roster — 14th nationally in KenPom’s D-I Experience statistic — and like most Rick Barnes teams, this group is hyper-physical and downright mean defensively. A Sweet 16 clash with Kentucky, which swept Tennessee this season, would make for an intriguing shot at revenge.
Michigan State’s claim to fame is its demonic work on the glass. Thanks to a bruising group of big men and sound positional principles, the Spartans rank No. 5 nationally in rebounding margin. The knock on the Big Ten regular-season champs is that they struggle to shoot from the perimeter, but Jase Richardson’s emergence as a deadly scorer since entering the starting lineup on Feb. 8 has raised the ceiling of the offense.
The Badgers’ legs seemed shot by the end of their hard-fought loss to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament final. They went just 7 of 39 (17.9 percent) from beyond the arc, a far cry from the 19-of-32 (59.4 percent) explosion against UCLA just two days prior. Still, the Badgers proved they are a much better team with the services of Max Klesmit, who missed their strange season-ending home loss to Penn State. With a guard trio like Klesmit, John Tonje and John Blackwell, Wisconsin can beat anybody.
Iowa State’s best is up there with anyone in the tournament. When fully healthy, the Cyclones lost just twice this season: to Auburn by two at the Maui Invitation and to BYU in double overtime. The problem is that TJ Otzelberger’s team will not be healthy for the NCAA Tournament, as he announced Sunday that guard Keshon Gilbert will not be available for the remainder of the season. Iowa State still has two tremendous guards in Tamin Lipsey and Curtis Jones plus a deep, physical frontcourt, but the Clones’ ceiling lowers without Gilbert’s swarming on-ball defense.
A year after an Elite Eight run as a No. 6 seed, Clemson is up a seed line this time around. Several key veterans are back from that squad, most notably point guard Chase Hunter and forward Ian Schieffelin. Veteran transfers Jaeden Zackery and Viktor Lakhin are eager to get in on the postseason success as well; neither has played in the NCAA Tournament yet. Unfortunately, the Tigers start with a tough matchup with one of the country’s most athletic mid-majors, and they will be shorthanded after backup guard Dillon Hunter broke his hand.
Kentucky has all kinds of upside, racking up 11 Quad 1 wins this season, which tied for fourth nationally. But the Wildcats also went just 10-8 in the SEC, struggling mightily with consistency on the defensive end. Those worries could be compounded if their best on-ball defender, Lamont Butler, is out or well below 100 percent for the tournament. He is expected to play, but he has reinjured his shoulder multiple times this year, and Kentucky is a different team when he is on the bench.
The Crab Five, as Maryland’s starting unit has come to be known, is as good as any in the country. The Terrapins have size, shooting, playmaking, ballhandling — almost everything you could want. They do lack depth, though, so if one or two players have an off night, Maryland can be vulnerable. Grand Canyon is a challenging underdog; the Antelopes have four starters back from the team that beat Saint Mary’s in the NCAA Tournament last season and have plenty of size and athleticism themselves.
No. 13 Grand Canyon
Friday
Arizona almost won the Big 12 tournament, playing Houston to a near-draw for 39 minutes in the championship game. The Wildcats have an impressive top gear, but the Caleb Love cloud will hang over their heads all tournament. He went just 5 of 18 from the field in the Wildcats’ postseason loss to Clemson last year. Arizona is a dominant offensive rebounding team, though, and any player in the seven-man rotation can have a big game on a given night.
Outside of the top seeds, we’re looking for upside for a title contender. Led by a likely lottery pick in Kasparas Jakucionis and an excellent coach in Brad Underwood, Illinois has that. The Illini’s seeding suffered due to a shaky February when the roster was ravaged by injuries and illness, but when things are clicking, Illinois looks unbeatable. Case in point: winning at Oregon by 32 and winning at Michigan by 20. Can the Illini capture that form for six consecutive games? Unlikely, but you never know.
No. 11 Texas/Xavier
Friday
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(Illustration: Will Tullos for The Athletic; Photos: Grant Halverson, James Gilbert, Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
