When you look at pitcher heat maps, you will see a red circular shape where the pitcher most often hits the catcher’s mitt. Some pitchers have two spots they like to target in the zone, but most have one particular spot they like to focus inside the zone. For Tarik Skubal, that dot is very small, especially when compared to some of his pitching peers on today’s slate. It’s no wonder the best pitcher in baseball has a 2% BB rate. If a batter is going to do anything with a Skubal pitch inside the zone they must be locked in on that spot at high velocity. All of this build up allows me to say with some confidence that most of my plans tonight in DFS start with the elite SP on the day, Tarik Skubal.
We are also gifted with a few elite spots on offense and no real reason to deviate unless ownership congregates heavily, something that is unusual on an 11 game slate. The NYY are taking on Patrick Corbin in Yankee Stadium. In 3 games at Yankee Stadium in his career Corbin has allowed 6 HRs (on only 13 hits). The Yankees have a 147 wRC+ as a team vs. LHPs this year and that damage comes mostly from Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Volpe. I will have plenty of designs on parking those three together, often with two other less heralded Yankees to make a 5 stack.
The Phillies get to tee off on the ground ball generating Senzatela and the rest of the Rockies bullpen which has consistently been one of the most worked bullpens and is likely resting their best arm tonight. If you don’t like those two options, the ATH get to tee off in their home park on Kyle Hendricks, a perfect opposing pitcher for a power hitting team and SEAs power hitters are facing CHW again, this time vs. perhaps the worst starting pitcher on the White Sox, Bryse Wilson. I do not see a lot of reason to search for another spot other than the fact that anything can happen in the small sample size of one game.
My other point today revolves around the idea of “splits”. Some players are only elite against one handedness. Take Will Warren for example. He has a career 32% K rate and 3% BB rate to RHBs, very similar to Skubal’s overall projection. Luckily for him, TEX only has two lefties in the top 7 spots of the lineup and neither makes me fearful of starting Warren today. There are also some batters who dominate RHPs (or vice versa but the lefty killers often get pinch hit for later in the game) and deserve consideration on a single game slate. Riley Greene has a 175 wRC+ vs RHPs. Similarly this year Ryan O’Hearn and Jorge Polanco are crushing RHPs and should be considered in their matchups tonight.
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Tarik Skubal, SP: $11,500 – I want the easy 30 points tonight even at this cost. Hopefully people will shy away and I can take home some certainty with the top SP in all of MLB.
Will Warren, SP: $7,500 – Versus RHBs, Warren looks very much like Tarik Skubal and he will likely face 5 RHBs tonight. 3 of the lefties he does face may get on base, but only Pederson really has much of any power and he is not in a groove of any kind yet this year. I will also take the points from the likely win tonight.
Shea Langeliers, C: $3,900 – This is an easy price to pay for one of the premier power hitting Cs who can also steal a base from time to time. Hendricks will be lucky to work his way through this lineup without some damage tonight. Bangaliers also bats 4th.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $4,500 – You have to play Goldy at leadoff if you are invested in the Yankees tonight. I can’t make a case for avoiding him because the rest of the 1B options are weak.
Jorge Polanco, 2B: $5,100 – Zack Gelof was made for nights like this and I will likely look to save salary at 2B (wait till lineups are announced and find someone batting up in the order that is cheap), but Polanco is the best option. He has been crushing RHPs all season and that won’t stop tonight vs. the White Sox.
Max Muncy (Dodgers), 3B: $3,500 – There is nothing in Muncy’s data this year that I like, but he is a patient hitter who usually is fairly consistent at getting on base and hitting for power. It looks like he has turned his season around finally and those two things should continue. Muncy is usually not affected by his opponent (he can hit anyone) but in this case his team should see good run scoring opportunities vs. Ryne Nelson.
Jacob Wilson, SS: $4,100 – Technically I have Volpe ahead of Wilson tonight, but I like the $400 deal you get on Wilson and the less ownership he should come with. Volpe has 389 PAs with a 112 wRC+ in his career (although is faring far better this year) and Wilson has 159 PAs this year vs RHPs and a 146 wRC+. I should have drafted this guy everywhere. Both are good options tonight depending on who you stack.
Cody Bellinger, OF: $4,800 – Bellinger currently is in the top ten of wRC+ vs a lefty in 2025. Looking at his career numbers, you see a similar pattern. This guy can hit lefties and on top of that he is scorching hot. Maybe others will avoid him and I love the discounted price for a middle of the order bat vs. Patrick Corbin.
Riley Greene, OF: $4,700 – I recommended Greene on Friday in a similarly good matchup and played him as a one off. Detroit as a team is a bit of a thin play, but Greene is the best of the bunch and hits the ball really well vs. RHPs. He should be flying around the bases tonight.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The game in MIN got suspended last night and there is rain around the area all day again. I would simply avoid this game altogether and treat it as a 10 game slate. It is currently raining in Chicago and the White Sox game will be in peril of a PDD, but with the rain expected to taper off it’s possible the game is played although the conditions will be cold and wet.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Yankees current team total (5 runs) is a bit lower than 3 other spots; PHI, LAD and ATH. The SEA line is also tied with NYY. If this makes NYY ownership a bit lower, I am happy about it. Those are definitely some high total games in Sacramento (LAA vs ATH) and Denver (COL vs. PHI) that I wouldn’t mind stacking up those environments since there is a clear pathway to first if the game environment produces HRs and/or lots of runs.
