If you were disappointed by the lack of buzzer-beaters or Cinderella moments in the first week of the NCAA Tournament, you can always turn your attention to the betting market for some extra entertainment. I think we will be in store for some really exciting games this weekend, but before we turn our attention to the Sweet 16 board, let’s take a peek back at the first weekend.
While it didn’t end up as a winning first weekend, we did go 4-1 when it comes to beating the market if there is any silver lining. You can follow my women’s best bets that will come out tomorrow. My first-round bets went 6-1, and second-round bets went 5-2 (make sure to follow me on X/Bluesky). The men’s came down to the fact that North Carolina couldn’t miss a shot, Missouri looked like it had never played offense before and Liberty was outclassed by Oregon. Win some, lose some. Let’s get it back in the Sweet 16.
NCAA Tournament ATS/Totals Record: 2-3, -1.30 units
Sweet 16 best bets
Alabama -4.5 (-110) vs. BYU
I have some concerns about Alabama’s defense and its ability to stop BYU in this matchup, but I can make the same argument for BYU. This game is going to have a ton of points scored. Both offenses are top 10 in the country, but the difference here is going to come down to which team can generate enough stops to win. I’m not sure Alabama is balanced enough to win it all this year, but the Crimson Tide have the much better defense and that’s pushing me into backing them. I don’t think BYU has enough on defense to stay within the number.
- Worst price to bet: Alabama -5.5 (-110)
Michigan State -3.5 (-110) vs. Ole Miss
I didn’t think I’d find myself on this Michigan State team very often in the tournament, but I actually really like how the Spartans match up against Ole Miss. Michigan State isn’t as balanced as Ole Miss, but I think its defense is the only elite unit in this game. From there, Ole Miss is not a strong rebounding team while Michigan State is … and that’s on the offensive and defensive glass. I can see a world where Michigan State is finding extra possessions on offense and limiting Ole Miss from getting any extra possessions. Michigan State loves to get to the free-throw line as well. The Spartans are top 50 in free-throw rate. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is a bottom-50 team in defensive free-throw rate. As long as Michigan State doesn’t turn the ball over — Ole Miss can do that at times — I think the Spartans have a shot at winning this one comfortably.
- Worst price to bet: Michigan State -4.5 (-110)
Future bets
Sweet 16 Futures: 2-7, -3.37 units
‘Twas not a kind weekend for the Sweet 16 futures due to the chalky bracket. Five of my Sweet 16 futures lost in the second round, three of which were favored to win the game. I’ll likely never have a good future betting portfolio if the tournament ends up as favorite-heavy as it was this weekend, but we still have Tennessee alive for Final Four and national champion bets. Let’s look if there is anything worth adding.
Houston to win the national championship (+550; risk 0.25 units)
Houston to make the Final Four (-110; to win 0.5 units)
Michigan State to win the national championship (+2500; risk 0.1 units)
Michigan State to make the Final Four (+310; risk 0.5 units)
Texas Tech to make the Final Four (+280; risk 0.25 units)
(Photo of Clifford Omoruyi: Nick Cammett / Getty Images)
