Unfortunately for March Madness fans who love underdogs, the opening weekend of the 2025 men’s NCAA Tournament was chalky and didn’t produce a lot of drama or memorable moments.
All four No. 1 seeds advanced, upsets were limited and Cinderella teams were eliminated before the Sweet 16 in favor of an all-power conference affair.
Despite the lack of upsets, some enticing games are on the way. We will get to watch the big-name programs battling in compelling matchups over the rest of the tournament. St. John’s and Iowa State were the only top 10 teams on the national championship odds board eliminated during the first weekend, leaving us with a Sweet 16 lineup littered with top seeds and familiar names.
Looking healthy and complete, with star freshman Cooper Flagg successfully returning from an ankle injury, Duke is now the favorite on the national championship odds board entering the tournament’s second weekend. Just last week, Florida, not Duke, came into the tournament atop the betting board to win it all.
Of course, there are plenty of other quality teams still playing good basketball who think they can also cut down the nets in two weeks. Here’s a look at the changes to the odds board following the opening weekend.
Duke new favorite after strong opening weekend
After sharing the top of the national title odds with Florida entering the NCAA Tournament, Duke (+225) now holds the top spot.
The Blue Devils hovered around +360 last week after Flagg missed two-plus games during the ACC tournament. With Flagg’s healthy return, Duke dismantled No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s and No. 9 Baylor during the first two rounds.
During the impressive second-round win over the Bears, the Blue Devils played nearly flawless basketball, shooting 64 percent from the floor and turning the ball over only six times. Flagg showcased a versatile all-around performance (18 points, nine rebounds, six assists) while the hot perimeter-shooting of junior guard Tyrese Proctor continued (25 points, career-high seven 3-pointers).
With the opening line of Duke’s Sweet 16 hovering near double digits, the Blue Devils are heavily favored in their matchup against No. 4 Arizona. Displaying dominant two-way play through two games, it’s easy to see why Duke currently sits at No. 1 entering the second weekend.
Other No. 1 seeds stay steady
Changes to Duke’s odds meant some shuffling among the other No. 1 seeds during the opening weekend. Florida (+350) maintains its pre-tournament odds after a brief dip to +300 after the first round. It wasn’t easy for the Gators to put away two-time defending national champion UConn in the second round. The close win showed how battle-tested Florida looks at this stage in the NCAA Tournament.
The Sweet 16 grants the Gators a major test against No. 4 Maryland, but Florida also gained the benefit of No. 2 St. John’s losing in the second round. That makes Florida’s potential path to the Final Four slightly easier.
Houston (+500) is the new No. 3 team in the national title odds. Rising steadily from +600 pre-tournament odds, the Cougars made a positive impression after their second-round win over Gonzaga. Even with all top four top seeds in the Midwest Regional advancing, Houston is a healthy favorite against No. 4 Purdue in the Sweet 16.
Auburn (+525), the national title favorite during the regular season, continues its slow drop. The Tigers were +340 before Florida won the SEC tournament. The drop continued as Auburn entered the NCAA Tournament at +400 odds.
Even with the drop in odds, Auburn also should be pleased by its Sweet 16 matchup against No. 5 Michigan. The Tigers lost to No. 4 Texas A&M to end the regular season a few weeks ago and don’t have to worry about a rematch after Michigan’s win. With No. 3 seed Iowa State also bowing out early, Auburn lost two of the top four seeds in its region before the second weekend.
Losses from St. John’s and Iowa State impact the second-tier market
Upsets didn’t play a huge factor at the top of the national title odds. In the market’s second tier, however, shake-ups occurred when No. 2 St. John’s and No. 3 Iowa State both lost in the second round.
Both programs sat at +3000 after first-round wins before upsets derailed the Red Storm and Cyclones during the second weekend.
Tennessee (+1600) found itself all over the odds board during the tournament’s opening week. The Vols started at +1400 after Selection Sunday, dropped to +2000 during the weekend, and crept back up by the end of the weekend.
Facing a conference rival in the Sweet 16, Tennessee is favored over No. 3 Kentucky (+5500) despite being swept by the Wildcats during SEC play.
Odds continue to fall for Alabama (+1800), thanks partly to Duke’s strong start. Since the Crimson Tide are potentially destined to face the Blue Devils in the Elite Eight, Alabama dropped from its +1200 pre-tournament start.
It didn’t help the Tide’s national title number when No. 15 Robert Morris put up a strong fight in the opening round before Alabama pulled away for the win.
Texas Tech (+2000) benefits directly from the St. John’s upset loss. Now the Red Raiders face No. 10 Arkansas in the Sweet 16. The unexpected matchup bumped Texas Tech from +3500 to +2000, with the Red Raiders now favored to advance to the Elite Eight.
A similar movement occurred for Michigan State (+2000) with Iowa State’s loss to No. 6 Ole Miss. The No. 2 Spartans jumped from +3000 to +2000 when their Sweet 16 matchup changed. Michigan State still has the largest odds among the No. 2 seeds left in the tournament, even after the bump.
Maryland (+3300) was the only other second-tier team to see a drastic bump after the weekend. Surviving with a buzzer-beating win over Colorado State, the Terps went from +5000 to +3300 in the span of a few hours. If Maryland can get past No. 1 Florida in the Sweet 16, then its path to the Final Four is a bit easier, on paper, with Arkansas knocking out St. John’s.
Long shots
With only 16 teams remaining, the bottom of the Sweet 16 features some long shots.
Arizona (+4000) boosted its odds from +5000 after its tight win over former Pac-12 rival Oregon. If you believe the Wildcats can beat No. 1 Duke in the Sweet 16, then Arizona could conceivably hang with any team left in the field.
The numbers also spiked for Kentucky (+5500) from +6600 after the Wildcats advanced past No. 6 Illinois. Since Kentucky already swept Sweet 16 opponent Tennessee during the regular season, it’s realistic to believe the Wildcats might win again and advance to the Elite Eight.
Purdue, Michigan and BYU (+6600) are all lumped together in the next group. Among that trio, the Cougars have the best odds of winning their next matchup, though No. 1 Duke would potentially loom in the Elite Eight.
If you believe in the depth of the SEC this season, then Ole Miss (+8000) and Arkansas (+10000) are also available at the bottom of the board.
(Photo of Cooper Flagg.: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)
