Trying to pick all the winners in an NCAA Tournament bracket pool is like predicting the price of crypto every day for the next six weeks. Sixty-three games, 63 chances to watch the market crash.
There has never been a perfect bracket, according to the NCAA. The closest anyone came was in 2019 when a Columbus, Ohio, man correctly predicted every game into the Sweet 16. When No. 2 Tennessee lost to No. 3 Purdue in overtime, Greg Nigl’s bracket suffered the same fate as all the ones that came before him.
The only time I’ve enjoyed even a modicum of success with NCAA bracket pools was in 2002 when I rode the success of my alma mater, Kent State, to the Elite Eight. I still knew a few of the players on that team from my college days and finished in the money by winning about $100. That’s the beginning, middle and end of my bracket prowess. In more recent years, my brackets were so lousy that I gave up on filling them out.
I wanted to try something a little different this time. I saw a few scenes the other day from the 2005 movie, “Two for the Money,” when Matthew McConaughey plays a sports handicapper who is so desperate that he flips a coin in the bathroom to pick his Super Bowl winner.
Anything good enough for McConaughey is good enough for me. I went searching for a quarter in my house but instead found one of my kids’ game tokens from the arcade room at the nearby indoor waterpark. The park’s name and logo are on the front and “NO CASH VALUE” is inscribed on the back, which seems fitting given the seriousness of this thought exercise and the odds of it amounting to anything productive.
The rules were simple. Heads were the name of the water park; tails were “NO CASH VALUE.” The top team on the bracket line served as heads and the bottom team was tails. One flip per game, no do-overs regardless of how ridiculous this gets.
We flip them and we don’t judge.
I place the coin in my hand for the inaugural flip and the winner is …
American/Mount St. Mary’s.
This was a bad idea.
I’m one flip in and I’ve already picked the winner of a First Four game to beat a No. 1-seeded team before the First Four game is even played. So technically, I don’t know which team I’m choosing to win, American or Mount St. Mary’s. All I know for sure is I’m picking Duke to lose. While that might please a large majority of you, it’s terrible news for this terrible idea I’ve come up with to fill out a bracket. Top seeds are 154-2 all-time against 16 seeds.
Immediately, I regretted starting on the top right side of the bracket like a sociopath, although starting on the top left would’ve eliminated the No. 1 overall seed Auburn. But Duke seems to have a clearer runway than Auburn for a long postseason run. It doesn’t matter now. The Blue Devils are gone and I feel like McConaughey’s character when he’s doubled over the toilet.
I forge ahead and complete the East Regional. The carnage is surprisingly minimal. Alabama, Wisconsin and Arizona, the No. 2-4 seeds, survive the flips of fate. I’m feeling a little better as I start flipping the Midwest Regional because there’s no way I can lose two top seeds on two flips. But, oh my, yes I can.
Houston is out, Southern Illinois Edwardsville is in. Houston has won consecutive Big 12 regular season titles and has advanced to the Sweet 16 in each of the last four years. This might be Kelvin Sampson’s best team ever, but I don’t want to talk about that right now. Let’s go Cougars. The SIU Edwardsville kind.
I’m getting some eye-rolls from colleagues for proposing this as a story idea.
Tennessee and Purdue survive the rest of the Midwest and things are starting to settle.
The top three seeds in both the South and West survive. Yale and Grand Canyon, a pair of 13 seeds, are my biggest upsets to advance to the round of 32, and I just know I’m somehow going to wind up with UC San Diego in my Final Four.
found em’ 😉 pic.twitter.com/Y7ANMfqj79
— UC San Diego Tritons (@UCSDtritons) March 16, 2025
No. 9 Creighton beats No. 1 Auburn in the round of 32, and No. 1 Florida falls to Grand Canyon in the Sweet 16. I’m all out of No. 1 seeds by the end of the Sweet 16 and I’m staring at an Elite Eight of Creighton, Michigan State, Grand Canyon, St. John’s, Liberty, Alabama, Purdue and Utah State.
That’s three No. 2 seeds along with a No. 4, 9, 10, 12 and 13. It certainly could’ve been better, but it’s not catastrophic. Yet.
St. John’s, Michigan State and Alabama give me a chance to survive this without looking deranged. But Liberty and Grand Canyon loom.
When Liberty beats Alabama in the Elite Eight, a nervous sweat breaks across my forehead. Liberty is headed to the Final Four. The Flames are terrific defensively. They’re 27-0 when they hold teams under 70 points. They’re an excellent 3-point shooting team and they’re elite at running opponents off the 3-point line. It’s a nice mix. But the Final Four? The indoor water park coin certainly likes them.
Purdue beats Utah State, Creighton beats Michigan State and Grand Canyon upsets St. John’s.
That leaves a Final Four of No. 13 Grand Canyon and No. 12 Liberty, No. 9 Creighton and No. 4 Purdue.
Creighton with its explosive scoring is looking like a more reasonable investment than crypto. But Grand Canyon, which pulled one upset last year as a No. 12 seed, beats Creighton on my bracket sheet and is headed to the national championship game. When Purdue beats Liberty, I am spared (robbed?) from writing Liberty and Grand Canyon into my national championship game.
The Boilermakers lost to UConn in the title game last year as a No. 3 seed and Braden Smith this season gives Purdue four consecutive years with a player on The Associated Press All-America first or second team. That’s enough for me. On my 63rd coin flip, Purdue takes down the Antelopes to win their first national championship in men’s basketball.
Dismiss the power of the indoor waterpark coin at your peril. For me, Boiler Up.
(Photo of Grand Canyon’s Collin Moore: Candice Ward / Getty Images)
