I know this is “old man yelling at clouds,” but it still annoys me that the honor of starting an All Star Game often goes to less deserving players because they have name recognition or play for big market teams.
Case in point: Jonathan Aranda.
If this were based on merit, he’d be the American League’s starting first baseman.
He’s had a standout first half across many baseball metrics.
Quality of contact
Aranda’s been great, and it’s not just luck. All his expected numbers indicate he has earned this success. The Mexican-born player has hit .320/.398/.481; his expected slash line stands at .307 AVG, .537 SLG, and he ranks in the 94th percentile in xOBP. This means you can take out factors such as luck and unforced errors from his success. The difference between his xSLG and SLG is -0.064, which ranks 50th in the majors (minimum 200 PA). On top of that, he is hitting the balls as hard as anybody in the league with an average exit velocity of 93.2 MPH, good for the 94th percentile, ahead of names like Fernando Tatis Jr, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Corbin Carrol, and Cal Raleigh.
Consistency, consistency, consistency…
One of Aranda’s biggest assets is that he’s a player you can pencil into the lineup every day because he does a great job against righties and lefties. Against righties, Aranda is hitting .323/.397/.518 with a 159 wRC+. Meanwhile, against left-handed pitching, Aranda is .308/.400/.354 slugging with a 124 wRC+. This consistency helps the team get a certain amount of versatility against righties and lefties. For a long time, the Rays have lacked left-handed batters who can hit left-handed pitchers, and it seems they have finally found one. Also, another measure of consistency is that every single month, he has a wRC+ over 153 (besides July, in which he has less than 20 PA) and an SLG over .480. This consistency has helped Aranda cement himself in the 4th spot in the Rays lineup.
Areas of improvement.
As good as Aranda has been, there is still a tiny hole in his swing that is being exposed by opposing pitchers. Aranda is struggling against pitches in the upper third of the zone. His strikeout rate is over 39% when pitched in the upper third of the zone. On the other hand, 34% of his total WHIFFS comes when he swings the upper third of the zone.
In the following chart, we can get a deeper look at Aranda’s struggles in the upper part of the zone.
The most impressive part is that he is still generating consistent hard contact when he gets pitches at the top of the zone. The xwOBA is not as attractive as in other zones; however, we can see that there is a clear WHIFF and strikeout problem.
When Aranda fixes his problems at the top of the zone, he could turn out to be one of the most complete hitters in the game. Jonathan Aranda’s journey is an incredible story. After a couple of seasons of hovering between a role player and Triple-A, he has finally put it all together in 2025. Hopefully, he can replicate his success in the second half of the season because if he continues playing at this level, he has the potential to be a long-term cornerstone for the franchise.
