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Illinois vs. Duquesne expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament second-round game

Illinois vs. Duquesne expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament second-round game

A high-octane offense makes Illinois one of the most dangerous teams in the country. But a bad habit of sluggish defense is something Illinois is hoping to avoid against a dangerous Duquesne team riding a nine-game winning streak and first-round upset. The Fighting Illini enter the Round of 32 throwdown against the Dukes as nearly double-digit favorites.

The Illini star power was on full display when they pulled away in the second half of their first-round win over Morehead State. Terrence Shannon Jr. scored 19 of his team-high 26 points in the first half. Production picked up in the second half from bruising reserve big man Dain Dainja (21 points) and punctuated with the NCAA Tournament’s 10th triple-double in history from senior guard Marcus Domask (12 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists). For the nation’s 2nd-ranked offense, the first round showcased how easy Illinois scores when Shannon is rolling and complementary pieces chip in.

Despite immense offensive gifts, a subpar defense (No. 92 nationally) leaves Illinois susceptible to counterruns and close games. One of the worst defenses in the nation at forcing turnovers (No. 360 nationally), perimeter pressure is problematic for the Fighting Illini when they lose focus.

Duquesne is making the most of its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1977. On Thursday, the Dukes went from being the least-picked 11 seed this year to becoming the first upset of the 2024 NCAA Tournament, ousting No. 6 seed BYU and its potent offense in the first round by controlling the game at their preferred slower tempo (final score: 71-67). The Dukes’ senior backcourt of Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark III broke down BYU’s defense off the dribble at will. Electric at times this season, Grant and Clark pace Duquesne’s scoring while also serving as co-catalysts for a respectable defense that ranks No. 29 in adjusted defensive efficiency in the country (per KenPom).

Duquesne is playing loose after four wins in five days to win the Atlantic 10 tournament. There’s also the extra motivation of playing for head coach Keith Dambrot — who announced Monday that this is his final season.

The all-senior backcourt battle will be the spotlight in Saturday’s game. Illinois will run offense through Shannon and Domask while Duquesne counters with Grant and Clark. It’s a high-level affair featuring four experienced players who all earned all-conference honors during their careers. Illinois can reach another level by using its advantage in the frontcourt. Versatile senior Coleman Hawkins and the 270-pound Dainja could be a mismatch for a smaller Dukes frontcourt rotation.


How to watch Illinois vs. Duquesne

What: East Region, Second Round

Tipoff time: 8:40 p.m. ET Saturday

TV: TNT

Location: Omaha

Duquesne vs. Illinois odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.

Expert picks

Model projection: Illinois by 11.5, total 147

See Austin Mock’s best futures bets.

Players to watch

Illinois

  • Terrence Shannon Jr., graduate guard, first-team All-Big Ten
  • Marcus Domask, graduate guard, first-team All-Big Ten

Duquesne

  • Jimmy Clark III, senior guard, second-team All-A-10
  • Dae Dae Grant, senior guard, second-team All-A-10

More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage

(Photo of Jimmy Clark III: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)





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