We are officially in April, which means we are getting close to the NFL Draft. For dynasty leagues, that also means rookie drafts are right around the corner.
I’m someone who likes to run articles that break down interesting data across different areas of fantasy football. In this article, I looked at the last 11 NFL Draft classes to see what the outcomes look like in terms of fantasy success. While everyone knows players drafted earlier tend to have better success, what does that actually look like? What is the real hit rate for fantasy football?
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We are going to break it down by each position and see how much success comes from each round of the NFL Draft. We will also look at other key data points, like how rookie-year production impacts future outcomes, and how that can help us evaluate the 2025 rookie class heading into thier sophomore year.
Hopefully, after the NFL Draft, we can come back to this and apply the data to the incoming rookies—identifying which players have the best chance based on the data trend.
Quarterbacks
| Round | Players Drafted | QB1 | QB2 or Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | 37 | 59.5% | 75.7% |
| Round 2 | 7 | 14.3% | 28.6% |
| Round 3 | 16 | 0.0% | 18.8% |
| Round 4 | 15 | 6.7% | 13.3% |
| Round 5 | 15 | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Round 6 | 20 | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Round 7 | 17 | 5.9% | 5.9% |
Round 1 QBs
First-round quarterbacks consistently offer the highest upside to become fantasy QB1s. If you have the opportunity to draft one in rookie drafts, it’s a bet worth making. Even when they don’t develop into elite options, they often provide multiple seasons of QB2 production—valuable depth as a second or third quarterback on a dynasty roster.
A recent example is Jaxson Dart, who was often a borderline first-round rookie pick due to market hesitation. Managers who took the chance were rewarded with solid rookie production, reinforcing the idea that investing in first-round quarterback talent—especially in the back half of drafts—can yield strong returns.
While Dart highlights the upside of investing in first-round quarterbacks, it’s important to acknowledge the misses as well. Prospects like Trey Lance and Zach Wilson serve as reminders that not every first-round QB will hit.
That said, the overall hit rates still strongly favor taking the chance. Roughly 75% of first-round quarterbacks go on to produce at least QB2-level seasons, which is a strong return for dynasty managers. On the high end, the payoff is league-changing. With a QB1 hit rate around 59%, you’re giving yourself a real shot at landing a difference-maker in the mold of Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes.
It’s also important to properly set expectations. Rookie QB1 seasons are extremely rare. Since 2015, only 5 quarterbacks have produced a QB1 season as rookies—4 of whom were first-round picks, with Dak Prescott as the lone exception. Immediate elite production should not be the expectation; instead, managers should view rookie quarterbacks as longer-term investments with high ceilings.
Day 2 & 3 QBs
Taking a quarterback outside of Round 1 comes with far worse odds of success:
- Rounds 3 and 6 have produced zero QB1 seasons over the last 11 years (though Malik Willis could challenge that trend in 2026).
- Only 4 of 90 non-first-round QBs have produced a QB1 season.
- Just 10 of 90 have reached QB2 production, showing how thin the success rate is outside Round 1.
- Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Sam Howell, and Brock Purdy are the only ones over the last 11 seasons to reach QB1 production.
That puts into question whether a player like Tyler Shough can realistically reach that level. Because of that, Shough could be viewed as a strong sell-high candidate, as the odds of him becoming an elite fantasy option are slim.
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Running Backs
| Round | Players Drafted | RB1 | RB2 or Better | Top 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | 15 | 66.7% | 80.0% | 86.7% |
| Round 2 | 24 | 33.3% | 70.8% | 79.2% |
| Round 3 | 32 | 25.0% | 40.6% | 50.0% |
| Round 4 | 48 | 6.3% | 18.8% | 31.3% |
| Round 5 | 37 | 13.5% | 21.6% | 27.0% |
| Round 6 | 37 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Round 7 | 39 | 2.8% | 5.1% | 10.3% |
Round 1 RBs
In Round 1, the number of running backs drafted is relatively small (just 15), but the fantasy success rate is extremely strong. Only Rashaad Penny—and, for now, Omarion Hampton—have yet to produce at least one Top-30 season.
Hampton, along with Ashton Jeanty, represents the type of young running back worth buying high on in dynasty formats. The data supports both as potential cornerstone pieces, offering RB1 potential for multiple seasons ahead.
Other 1st Round RB Notes:
- 10 of the 13 1st Round RBs (not including the 2025 class) have produce at least multiple RB2 or better seasons.
- 9 of the 13 1st Round RBs (not including the 2025 class) have produce at least multiple RB1 numbers
- There have been 6 RB1 rookie seasons, and 5 of those RBs went on to have multiple RB1 seasons after that.
Day 2 RBs
As the running back position continues to be devalued at the NFL level, more talent is getting pushed into Day 2 of the draft. Despite that shift, the fantasy outcomes remain strong. Of the 56 running backs selected on Day 2, 16 have produced at least one RB1 season, while 35 have delivered a Top-30 finish.
What stands out even more is how predictive early production can be. There have been 13 Day 2 running backs who posted an RB2 or better season as rookies. Excluding the 2025 class, all 11 of those backs went on to produce multiple RB2 or better seasons. When these players hit early, they tend to sustain success.
That trend is encouraging for players like TreVeyon Henderson and RJ Harvey, both of whom finished as Top-24 running backs as rookies. Their early production suggests a strong likelihood of continued RB2 or better output moving forward, making both solid buy candidates this offseason. Harvey, in particular, may present a value opportunity with his price suppressed following J.K. Dobbins’ return.
It’s also worth noting that not every successful Day 2 running back produces immediately. Players like Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, and James Cook didn’t finish as top 24 RBs in their rookie seasons but saw increased roles in Year 2 and eventually became major fantasy contributors. That keeps the door open for players like Jonathan Brooks and Blake Corum, who could still break out if their workloads expand.
Other Day 2 RB Notes:
- Every Day 2 RB (5) who finished as an RB1 as a rookie would give us at least 1 more RB1 season.
- There were 5 of 24 Round 2 running backs who did not produce a Top-30 season, but most were injury-prone players such as Cam Akers, Jonathan Brooks, Kerryon Johnson, and Derrius Guice. This reinforces the idea to consider moving off often-injured players as they don’t recover well.
Day 3 RBs
For Day 3 running backs, the chances of producing drop off heavily. Out of 161 running backs drafted, only 9 have given us RB1 seasons. If you’re expecting immediate production from these backs, you will likely be disappointed. Only Jordan Howard has given us an RB1 rookie season, and Bucky Irving is the only other one with an RB2 rookie season. Rebuilders should look to draft these backs over contenders, especially early in the season.
When looking at individual rounds, Round 5 has had one of the better hit rates for fantasy production. Players like Aaron Jones, Kyren Williams, and Howard have come from this range. While in Rounds 6 and 7, only Chris Carson has given us a full RB1 season. You may be better off taking a shot on an undrafted running back (who have produced multiple RB1 seasons over the years) than relying on RBs drafted in those two late rounds.
This brings up some interesting 2025 running backs in Bhayshul Tuten and Cam Skattebo if they can beat the odds in good situations. Only three Round 4 RBs have produced RB1 seasons and just six others have reached RB2, a roughly 6% hit rate from day 3 RBs. The good news is many of those backs broke out a few years after their rookie season, so there is still some hope—but you should proceed with caution and hope their rookie flashes turn into consistent production by Year 2.
Other RB Notes
- There have also been 12 undrafted running backs who have produced at least one Top-30 season.
- 217 running backs outside of round 1 and only 25 have become RB1s & 46 have give a RB2 or better season.
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Wide Receivers
| Round | Players Drafted | WR1 | WR2 or Better | Top 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | 49 | 36.7% | 49.0% | 57.1% |
| Round 2 | 53 | 18.9% | 32.1% | 39.6% |
| Round 3 | 50 | 14.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| Round 4 | 48 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 4.2% |
| Round 5 | 45 | 6.7% | 8.9% | 11.1% |
| Round 6 | 59 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| Round 7 | 53 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
Round 1 WRs
Compared to other positions, Round 1 wide receivers have one of the lowest hit rates for producing WR1 seasons in fantasy, despite being one of the most frequently drafted positions. Consistent elite production is rare, with only 5 receivers since the 2015 class recording multiple top-12 finishes, and just 4 producing a WR1 season as rookies over the past 11 years.
However, there is some encouragement in early production—9 of 11 Round 1 receivers who finished top-24 as rookies went on to record at least one more top-24 season in their careers, with Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. being the only exceptions so far (a number that could easily become 11-for-11 by the end of 2026). Ultimately, Round 1 wide receivers remain a gamble that requires additional context in rookie draft evaluation, but players like Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, and Ricky Pearsall still stand out as buy-low candidates after flashing the talent that gives them legitimate upside.
Day 2 WRs
Day 2 can still offer some solid fantasy receivers, but like Round 1, the data shows there isn’t a strong or consistent trend with wideouts. You do see a number of receivers settle into WR2 production, with nine receivers recording two or more WR2 seasons, but true high-end upside remains harder to predict.
Day 3 WRs
One thing to note about Day 3 receivers is that they’re unlikely to produce for you in fantasy. Since 2015, just 9 receivers drafted in Rounds 4 and later have posted a top-30 season, a 4.4% hit rate that reinforces the idea that late-round wideouts are often a wasted pick. This is especially true in Rounds 6 and 7, where only Parker Washington and Jauan Jennings have managed top-30 finishes.
If you’re going to take a shot on a late-round receiver in rookie drafts, Round 5 is the one to target. While the sample size is small, the upside has been significant, with players like Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, and Stefon Diggs highlighting just how impactful that range can be.
Tight Ends
| Round | Players Drafted | TE1 | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | 11 | 90.9% | 100.0% |
| Round 2 | 20 | 35.0% | 40.0% |
| Round 3 | 27 | 22.2% | 29.6% |
| Round 4 | 30 | 10.0% | 30.0% |
| Round 5 | 29 | 3.4% | 13.8% |
| Round 6 | 21 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Round 7 | 22 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Round 1 TEs
Round 1 tight ends come with a smaller sample size, but the fantasy outcomes have been strong. If you invested in players like Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren, you were rewarded with TE1 production as both were first-round selections.
It really drives home the point—if a tight end is drafted in Round 1 of the NFL Draft, you should strongly consider betting on the talent and opportunity for fantasy production. Historically, 10 of the 11 first-round tight ends have produced at least one TE1 season, with O. J. Howard being the lone exception. Even more encouraging, over half of these players deliver TE1 production as rookies. The takeaway is simple: when a tight end gets Round 1 draft capital, don’t overthink it—take the shot.
Day 2 TEs
Day 2 tight ends offer some decent outcomes for fantasy football, with a 27% hit rate for TE1 seasons and 34% for top-20 finishes. Most of these players take time to reach that level, but the upside is clearly there. Players like Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, and Dallas Goedert are strong examples of Day 2 success. One consistent trend is that when these tight ends produce early, they often go on to deliver multiple top-20 fantasy seasons, which is an encouraging sign for a player like Harold Fannin Jr. to continue building on early production.
Even for those who don’t break out as rookies, there’s still reason for optimism. Many Day 2 tight ends take a step forward in Year 2, making players like Mason Taylor, Terrance Ferguson, and Elijah Arroyo intriguing buy candidates in dynasty leagues if you’re betting on that development curve.
Day 3 TEs
When looking at Day 3 tight ends, you should really only be targeting players drafted in the 4th–5th round range. Those two rounds have given us quality fantasy producers like George Kittle, Jake Ferguson, and Dalton Schultz.
Most of these players didn’t produce at a high level as rookies, but within a year or two, they broke out and became reliable fantasy options. That trend is important when evaluating current prospects.
It makes you wonder if a player like Oronde Gadsden II can follow that same path. He showed flashes as a rookie in a run-heavy offense last year, and he could be worth paying up for in dynasty formats if you believe he develops into a featured option in the Chargers’ offense. A cheaper option to consider is Gunnar Helm, who could see a step forward with Chigoziem Okonkwo out of the picture. While a true TE1 ceiling might be unlikely, a future top-20 finish is well within reach.
As for rounds 6 and 7—don’t even bother. Over the last 11 years, not a single tight end drafted in that range has produced a top-20 fantasy season. They’re not worth a draft pick or even a taxi squad stash off waivers.
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