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Houston vs. Longwood expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament first-round game

Houston vs. Longwood expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament first-round game

Houston is the No. 2 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and one of the favorites to win the national title. The Cougars, the No. 1 seed in the South Regional, are massive favorites against No. 16 seed Longwood for Friday’s first-round game.

The Cougars have been favored in every game this season, but received a wake-up call in the Big 12 tournament final against Iowa State (a 28-point loss). Houston is expected to comfortably bounce back in this one though. The Lancers were 6-10 in the Big South, giving them the fewest conference wins of any team in the field.

Houston

Strengths: Houston’s defense is the stuff of nightmares. The Cougars rank high in most defensive categories, including No. 2 in effective FG% (44 percent), blocks (16.1 percent) and steals (15.5 percent). They are top five in turnover percentage (24.7) and 2-point defense (43.4 percent) and just outside that for 3-point defense (29.6 percent). The Cougars aren’t big but feature incredible athletes in the frontcourt in J’Wan Roberts and Ja’Vier Francis. Roberts did suffer a knee injury in the Big 12 Tournament, but played after. Jamal Shead may be the best all-around point guard in the sport. He’s just as likely to block a shot as to bury a game-winner.

Weaknesses: Depth is a concern at every position. Houston lost key reserves in wing Terrance Arceneaux, forward Jojo Tugler and guard Ramon Walker Jr. And while Houston never struggles to get shots, it can struggle to make them. Houston’s 50 percent effective FG rate is the lowest among any team seeded 1-5. Emanuel Sharp can heat up, but this is a team built to win 55-45, not 70-60.

Outlook: Houston dominated the AAC the last six seasons — 176-34 overall — then did the same in its first season in the Big 12. The Cougars finished ahead by two games, no small thing for a top league. They do it with defense, offensive rebounding, and a team that doesn’t try to play outside of itself. There are no stars on Houston. Just five starters and two key reserves focused on getting to every loose ball, challenging every shot, and wearing every team down. Every advanced metric rates the Coogs as the team to beat.

—Mike Miller

Longwood

Coach Griff Aldrich is taking Longwood dancing for the second time in three seasons. The Lancers started the season on fire, winning 12 in a row at one stretch before the wheels fell off.

The Lancers started out Big South play 2-8. They lost 10 out of 12 at one point, but Aldrich was able to turn things around in the last three weeks of the regular season. They won four of their last six games before the start of the Big South Tournament, including wins over High Point, who won the league, and UNC Asheville.

What this group does best is control the controllables. The Lancers are really good on the glass on both ends of the floor. They force the second-most turnovers in the league. They excel at finding ways to create extra possessions, which is big because this is not a team that is known for being a major threat on the offensive end of the floor. This is a tough spot heading into the dance — the teams that Longwood will likely be matched up against are all much bigger and more athletic.

—Rob Dauster


What: South Region, First Round

Tipoff time: 9:20 p.m. ET Friday

TV: TNT

Location: Memphis

Houston vs. Longwood odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.

Expert picks

Model projection: Houston by 18, total 125.6

See Austin Mock’s best futures bets

Players to watch

Houston

  • Jamal Shead, senior guard, Big 12 Player of the Year, Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, first-team All-Big 12, All-Big 12 defensive team
  • L.J. Cryer, senior guard, second-team All-Big 12
  • J’Wan Roberts, senior forward, third team All-Big 12

Longwood

More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage

(Photo of Jamal Shead: Ron Jenkins / Getty Images)





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