We’ve officially passed the halfway point of the baseball season. Whether you want to count games, celebrate the 4th of July, or use the All-Star Game as your barometer, the midpoint is here. It would be easy to assume that performances so far will be clear predictors of what’s to come but wise managers know better. There’s still plenty of work to do. While the rest of the country is arguing over ketchup vs. mustard, we’re focused on something far more important: figuring out whether that guy hitting .420 over the last two weeks is legit or just riding a heater. In this week’s hitter profiles, we’re diving into some names who are widely available in leagues and have been swinging hot bats lately. It’s time to break down what’s fueling these surges and, with all the overreaction we can muster, decide who’s worth buying and who’s better left on waivers. It’s been a while, but it’s time for another round of Buy or Sell in our hitter profiles.
Joey Ortiz
Over the last two weeks, Joey Ortiz has been performing well above average and potentially above his head as well. He’s delivered a 148 wRC+ on the back of four home runs, nine runs scored, 15 RBIs, and a .280 batting average. Ortiz has been manning shortstop for the Brewers, who currently sit in second place in the NL Central, though he’s been batting near the bottom of the order. Over the full season, through 85 games (including this recent power surge), he holds just a 64 wRC+. His main calling card has been his nine stolen bases in twelve attempts, backed by an 85th-percentile sprint speed. So, can we believe in this sudden power surge from a guy who entered 2025 with only 11 career home runs?
Let’s start with the obvious metrics behind this recent stretch. His BABIP has been low, at .243, and his strikeout rate during the run has dropped to 8.5%, half of his season-long rate. Those figures support some level of improvement. However, his average exit velocity during this period has been just 87.5 MPH, with only three barrels and a 36.6% hard-hit rate which are both right in line with his season norms. Where things do deviate is in his power output: a 21% HR/FB rate and a 47.5% fly ball rate. That’s nearly a 10-point jump in fly balls and more than triple his season-long home run-to-fly ball ratio. In short, this looks like a hot streak and nothing more with a few extra fly balls sneaking over the fence.
Verdict: Sell
Caleb Durbin
Sticking with the bottom of the Milwaukee lineup, we find our next hot hitter in Caleb Durbin. Over the last two weeks, he’s hit .400 with a home run, a stolen base, and a combined 17 runs and RBIs. That production adds up to performance 72% above league average for a player owned in fewer than 30% of CBS leagues. Known more as a speedster with mid-level pop in the minors, Durbin boasts 80th-percentile sprint speed, though that’s translated into just six steals on nine attempts this season. However, after racking up 31 steals in 35 attempts in the minors in 2024, it’s reasonable to expect that number to climb as he gets more comfortable at the major league level.
For the season as a whole, Durbin has posted just a 25% hard-hit rate, a 3.6% barrel rate, and average exit velocities below 85 MPH. His recent surge has been buoyed by a .441 BABIP, even as he’s shown a more disciplined approach at the plate. Still, his underlying Statcast metrics do little to inspire long-term confidence. At the end of the day, this is a profile driven largely by luck and boosted by run production tied to the hot streak of the first player we discussed. Long-term, Durbin is mildly intriguing, but for the remainder of the 2025 season, his value appears limited aside from some hidden upside in the steals category on one of the league’s most aggressive teams on the basepaths.
Verdict: Sell
Ramon Laureano
For our final hot streak, we’re leaving Milwaukee and checking in with the Orioles. Hitting in the middle of the lineup, Ramon Laureano has been 51% above league average over the past two weeks, batting a Caleb Durbin-like .302 with a home run, a steal, 13 runs scored, and five RBIs across nearly 50 plate appearances. During that span, he’s posted a 29% strikeout rate, an 8% walk rate, and a high .429 BABIP. While those surface numbers might raise some concerns, Laureano has delivered solid production over the full season with 10 home runs, a .273 average, and plenty of counting stats. He’s also recorded his highest hard-hit rate since 2019.
Digging a bit deeper, the .429 BABIP from his recent stretch clearly isn’t sustainable. However, Laureano ran a .350 BABIP throughout all of last season and currently sits at .348 in 2025, suggesting regression might be minimal. From a power perspective, his .240 ISO is the highest of his career. For a player owned in just 14% of CBS leagues, Laureano offers a compelling mix of power and speed with upside across the board. Even beyond the hot streak, there’s value here as long as he stays healthy for an Orioles offense that has been flirting with top-five status in runs scored over the past month.
Verdict: Buy
