In a rare assortment of alternate universes, the Mets didn’t evaporate from NL East relevance due to a disastrous 2023. In those universes, the upcoming four-game series between the Mets and the Braves in Atlanta is probably very exciting. In this universe, well, it’s pretty much just another April series.
The Mets will come into Atlanta with a 3-6 record. They were swept by the Brewers to open the year, dropped a series to the Tigers, and then won a series in Cincinnati, including a 3-1 win on Sunday behind a strong Sean Manaea outing and some lockdown relief work. The offense has been the real problem for the Mets — as of the time of writing, their 69 team wRC+ ranks dead last in MLB. Only Francisco Alvarez is off to a great start offensively; meanwhile, guys like Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, Harrison Bader, and Pete Alonso are mired in horrid slumps.
The pitching’s actually been pretty good, with almost all members of the pitching staff off to good starts; veteran Jose Quintana and former-Brave-and-now-erstwhile-Met Michael Tonkin are notable exceptions that have struggled in the early going.
The Braves are still trying to figure out exactly what their season will look like given the devastating news on Spencer Strider’s UCL and the fact that Max Fried had two more-than-forgettable first innings in his first two starts of the year. They haven’t announced their pitching plans for Wednesday, but with Allan Winans getting recalled and not being needed to secure the sweep of the Diamondbacks on Sunday, he may be a possibility to just slide right into Strider’s spot. For the Braves, this series can be seen as another chance to gather information on their rotation options; for the Mets, who have already shed some serious playoff odds with their poor start, it could be an early-season branching point between total irrelevance and a surprising resurgence.
Monday, April 8, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South, MLB Network)
Charlie Morton (1 GS, 5 2⁄3 IP, 0 ERA-, 69 FIP-, 101 xFIP-)
Charlie Morton largely breezed through a weak White Sox lineup during an uncomfortable day last week, putting up a 6/2 K/BB ratio in 5 2⁄3 as the Braves cruised to a shutout win. Morton attacked the Chicago lefties with a lot more changeups than he’s generally thrown in the past, and de-emphasized his curve a bit overall during the outing. It remains to be seen whether that was the start of a new pattern or something related to the game conditions.
Morton is no stranger to facing the Mets, having done so four times last season alone. Those four outings were a mixed bag of weirdness — one where he got BABIPed and lost, one where he was terrible and the Braves mounted a comeback, one in which he somehow had an insane 4/7 K/BB ratio but kept the Mets off the board, and an incredibly dominant 11-strikeout performance to cap it off. Morton’s overall line as a Brave (3.86 xFIP) is pretty similar to his line against the Mets (3.83 xFIP) in those years.
Julio Teheran (2023: 14 G, 11 GS, 71 2⁄3 IP, 100 ERA-, 112 FIP-, 107 xFIP-)
No, this is not a joke (or a drill). Yes, long-time Brave Julio Teheran’s journey across the major leagues continues, and yes, he will be starting against the Braves on Monday night. Since leaving Atlanta, Teheran has been part of the Angels, Tigers, Padres, Brewers, and Orioles organizations, with a very forgettable -0.5 fWAR amassed across parts of three seasons over 108 innings of work. He was better and functioned as a passable fifth starter in Milwaukee last year, however — the Braves saw this firsthand as they faced him twice in six days, winning both games. Teheran actually managed a 9/0 K/BB ratio against his long-time team in those two outings, but also yielded four total homers, including three in the latter game.
Teheran spent Spring Training this year with the Orioles, but failed to make their Opening Day roster and opted out. He didn’t have any suitors until last Friday, when the Mets cut bait with another former Brave, Michael Tonkin, and added Teheran on a major league deal.
Tuesday, April 9, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Reynaldo Lopez (1 GS, 6 IP, 32 ERA-, 66 FIP-, 107 xFIP-)
Lopez’ 2024 debut came against his old White Sox mates in Chicago, and went fine, as he made it through 23 batters in six innings and compiled a 6/2 K/BB ratio. It was simultaneously a longer and perhaps less effective outing than would’ve been expected from him considering the competition, so on balance, it makes sense.
Lopez actually faced the Mets three times as a reliever last year and was uninspiring in two of them, including a blowup where he failed to record any outs on August 27, but these are totally different circumstances, and MLB’s worst lineup to date, which is a favorable draw for him.
Adrian Houser (1 GS, 5 IP, 41 ERA-, 94 FIP-, 130 xFIP-)
Houser really danced through the raindrops last Thursday against the Tigers, getting charged with just a single run in five innings despite a 3/3 K/BB ratio. He had his bacon saved after issuing back-to-back walks to lead off the fourth when a lineout to short turned into a double play to end the inning.
Like Teheran, the Braves also faced Houser twice in the span of six days last season. In the first game, he had one of his best starts ever, tying a career high with 10 strikeouts in a one-run Braves loss. The Braves got their revenge the next week, as they smacked him around and forced him into just a 3/2 K/BB ratio across four innings in a 10-7 win. In his career, Houser has struggled against the Braves (4.18 FIP / 4.26 xFIP for his career, 4.35 FIP / 4.73 xFIP against the Braves) across six different outings going back to 2018. He pitched well in two, was okay in one, and really got knocked around in the other three.
A throwback sinkerballer, Houser threw a lot more changeups in his sole 2024 start than he has in the past. It’s something to watch.
Wednesday, April 10, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
TBD
We may find out more about the Braves’ plans for this game in the coming days, but as of right now, no starter has been announced. The Braves could use this opportunity to give the recently-recalled Allan Winans a start; Winans made two of his six starts last season against the Mets and had a combined 125 ERA-, 100 FIP-, and 96 xFIP- against them, which came as a combination of dominating them for seven innings in the first game, and getting shelled by them in the second game. They could also use a bullpen game or call up someone else; which road they take may depend on how much bullpen action is needed against the Mets in the first two games of this series, and therefore kind of depends on how Morton and Lopez fare on Monday and Tuesday.
Jose Quintana (2 GS, 10 1⁄3 IP, 59 ERA-, 140 FIP-, 123 xFIP-)
The Mets’ unexpected Opening Day starter in 2024 given the shelving of Kodai Senga, Quintana has been fortunate, to say the least, to start this season. He had a 4/2 K/BB ratio on Opening Day across 4 1⁄3 innings and allowed a homer to Christian Yelich in what turned into a 3-1 loss. He followed that up with a 4/4 K/BB ratio in Cincinnati that also included a homer given up. Somehow, he has a strand rate of nearly 100 percent, which tells you most of what you need to know here in the early going.
Quintana had a couple of weird starts against the Braves last year, coming 11 days apart. He had a 4/3 K/BB ratio in the first one but again somehow managed to only get charged with a single run, but the Mets lost 6-0 in the end. He was not nearly so fortunate with a 5/3 K/BB ratio in the second game, as the Braves plated a run in the first and four more in the sixth, all without the benefit of a homer.
The Braves have generally obliterated Quintana throughout his career — he’s faced them eight different times while representing five different teams and has a ghastly 6.47 FIP and 4.67 xFIP to show for it.
Quintana’s pitches have all looked pretty terrible on paper for a while now, but it’s too early to say whether he’s made any kind of effort to try to get around that unfortunate reality in 2024.
Thursday, April 11, 12:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South, MLB Network)
Max Fried (2 GS, 5 IP, 384 ERA-, 138 FIP-, 105 xFIP-)
At this point, we’re all well aware of the 2024 Max Fried saga, so there’s little point in rehashing it in detail. Long story short, Fried needs an outing that looks more like the 2.59 xFIP he posted in his second start, preferably without the results going south on him right away. Fortunately, the Mets should be an easier challenger than the Phillies or Diamondbacks.
Fried dominated the Mets last April, with a five-inning, 7/1 K/BB ratio effort. He has a 2.81 FIP / 3.29 xFIP in 102 career innings against them, compared to a 3.30 FIP / 3.36 xFIP overall — Citi Field probably helps in that regard.
Luis Severino (2 GS, 10 IP, 82 ERA-, 66 FIP-, 65 xFIP-)
Severino once looked like a perennial Cy Young contender, reeling off consecutive 5.5ish fWAR seasons in 2017-2018. Then came a boatload of injuries that neutered his effectiveness even when he was able to get on the mound, and he made a crosstown switch on a one-year, $13 million deal this offseason. So far, things are looking bright for the now-30-year-old right-hander, as he’s been excellent in two outings so far. While the Brewers scored six runs during his time on the mound in his first start, that was really mostly due to defense — he had a 6/0 K/BB ratio, but did allow a homer. Severino followed that up with a 7/2 K/BB ratio in Cincinnati while avoiding the longball, where, again, the defense caused more problems than his pitching.
When Severino was dominating earlier in his career, he was a pretty traditional four-seamer/slider/changeup guy. These days, he has a sinker and a cutter, too, and is more of a four-seamer-and-the-kitchen-sink hurler. His secondaries have served more to set up his four-seamer than anything else, which makes sense given that it’s the one pitch that stands out on paper.
The Braves crushed Severino in Atlanta last year (two homers, 5/2 K/BB ratio in four innings), which was his first time facing them since 2015.
