On paper, this group looks noticeably different from last year’s offense, and the early data from spring suggests those changes may be meaningful.
is the zone minus out-of-zone swing rate for this position player group as we wrap up Spring Training. This is an improvement from the 37.4% the offense maintained last year when they were roughly average. The offense this season should collectively have more competitive ABs than the group did in 2025 as they’re now showing signs of above-average swing decisions as a group.
is the contact rate this group of position players has shown this spring. The Rays offense was slightly below league average in this department last season with a 76.4% contact rate, and early returns suggest they could trend towards being one of the better bat-to-ball teams in the league. The front office has quietly been stockpiling more contact-oriented hitters since last year’s trade deadline. This trend should lead to more balls in play and help maximize the value of the speed and athleticism throughout the roster.
is the 90th percentile exit velocity of this offensive group during Spring Training. Losing Brandon Lowe introduced some questions about the overall power profile of the offense, especially after the group posted an above-average 105.6 mph EV90 last season.
Early returns suggest players like Williams and Vilade could help offset some of that loss, as both have shown the ability to impact the baseball. Whether that translates into consistent in-game power production over a full season remains to be seen, but the underlying raw power in this group looks at least comparable to last year’s, though it may show up differently in-game depending on batted ball angles.
is the line drive plus fly ball rate for this group this spring, essentially in line with last season’s 46.6% mark which ranked last in the league. That profile contributed to a high number of double plays despite strong team speed.
Early returns suggest that hasn’t fully shifted yet. The group’s average hard-hit launch angle has dropped to 7 degrees (down from 11 degrees last season), which may limit how much damage they can do even with improved contact.
There’s still plenty of time for that to change – batted ball angles are among the slowest stats to stabilize – but this remains the key variable to monitor.
The Brewers and Pirates operated in a similar batted-ball range last season with very different outcomes. The difference was in how consistently they converted contact into damage. The Rays’ blend of athleticism and power gives them a path closer to the Brewers’ end of that spectrum, but it’s not guaranteed.
Taken together, these early trends point toward a more balanced and functional offense than the Rays had in 2025. The improvements in swing decisions and contact rate should raise the floor of the group, but the batted ball angles will need to improve in order to reach their ceiling.
It’s still Spring Training, and not all of these gains will fully carry over. If even a few of these trends hold, the Rays’ offense should take a meaningful step forward this season.
