The Rays dropped the final two games of their first home series back at the Trop against the Cubs, undone by a quiet offense and some uncharacteristically poor defense. An off day gives the position player group a chance to reset – both cleaning up defensive miscues and settling back in at the plate – before opening their first divisional series at home against the Yankees.
is the zone-minus-out-of-zone swing rate for the offense so far. This number has now dipped below average as the group appears to be pressing a bit at the plate, reflected in more chase relative to their in-zone swing rates. Caminero, Simpson, and Williamson in particular are chasing quite a bit relative to their in-zone swing rates. The team as a whole has a much better track record of making solid to plus swing decisions, so we can expect them to improve in this area as they settle in.
is the team’s contact rate so far. This is a data point that was apparent early in the spring. The roster moves surrounding the core of Yandy-Cami-Aranda have added a new dimension to the Rays offense that we haven’t seen in a long time. They have the highest contact rate in the league and should continue to be a pesky offense that can beat pitchers with bat-to-ball skills in addition to solid power.
is the team’s 90th percentile exit velocity. This is solid power from a group that might not look like it at first. Optioning Carson Williams in favor of Taylor Walls while giving more at-bats to Chandler Simpson has brought this number down a bit from what we saw early in the season, but it’s still slightly above average and 10th highest in the league. There’s the potential to infuse this group with even more power from some key players in AAA if they need to do that at some point.
is the Rays combined line drive plus fly ball rate for the offense. This team has surprised me a bit with their ability to get the ball in the air at ideal angles. The combination of plus bat-to-ball skills, solid power, and improved launch angles has produced an offense that currently ranks 8th in the league with a 108 wRC+. We can be fairly confident that this will be at least an above average offense as things continue to stabilize – especially once they stop pressing so much at the plate.
is the rate at which batted ball events are being converted into outs by the defense. This number is better than what we saw after the first week of play (66.5%) as guys have started to settle in. Of course we’d all like the turn around to happen quicker, but we’re getting there. The biggest reason the Rays have dropped three of their first four series is that their infield defense has given away too many extra outs. They’re turning ground balls into outs just 68.5% of the time on the season so far – ranking 26th in the league.
The outfield has been plus defensively from day one. They’ve converted 67.2% of line drives and fly balls into outs, good enough for 4th in the league and well above the average of 61.1%.
The path forward is fairly clear: tighten the swing decisions and clean up the infield defense. Both are areas where this roster has a stronger track record than what we’ve seen so far. It’s frustrating that the inconsistency has been self-inflicted, but that’s also what makes it fixable.
