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Week 16 NFL Game Preview

Week 16 NFL Game Preview

The Week 16 NFL Game Preview with Advanced Stats was curated by Senior Staff Nerd Steven Pintado using statistics from the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

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Understanding NFL Betting Lines

There are three basic ways to bet on the NFL: the point spread, the moneyline, and the Total (also known as the Over/Under). Oddsmakers release a “point spread”, “moneyline”, and “total” for nearly every NFL game.

The Point Spread

The point spread is the number of points oddsmakers think the favored team should win by. You have the choice to choose the favorite and give up points or take the underdog and get points. The odds for placing a bet against the spread is usually -110, which means the bettor must risk $110 to win $100.

For example, in Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs were favored by 7 points at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs won the game by one point, 30-29. That means betting the Raiders as an underdog was the winning beat, as they “covered the spread”, even though they lost the game.

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The Moneyline

Nearly every NFL game will have a “moneyline”. The moneyline for a game represents how Vegas views how the game will end, which team will win and lose. Moneyline bets offer higher risk with lower return on favorites, and lower risks with higher returns on underdogs.

Moneyline bets are useful, especially for parlay bets, because you do not have to worry about how much a team wins by, only if they win or lose. It will cost more to bet the moneyline on favorites straight up if you are trying to make $100, while betting on underdogs has the potential for a larger payoff.

For example, in Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs played the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs were -355 to win the game outright, which means the bettor would have had to wager $355 to win $100. The Raiders were +278 to win, which means the bettor would have won $278 on a $100 bet IF the Raiders had won. The Chiefs won.

The Total (Over/Under)

Nearly every NFL game will have a “total”. The total, also known as the over/under, represents how many combined points the oddsmakers think will be scored in a game by both teams. The odds for total bets are normally -110, which means the bettor would have to wager $110 to win $100.

For example, in Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs played the Las Vegas Raiders, and the total was 51.5 points. The bettor had to decide whether they thought the score would be under or over 51.5 points, hence the term “over/under”. The game ended 30-29, for a total of 59 points, which was OVER the total.

Prop Bets

Many bookmakers offer proposition bets, or “prop bets” for short, which gives the bettor an opportunity to wager on specific aspects of the games other than the spread, moneyline and total. Each week there are prop bets available for most of the big national games.

For instance, there are prop bets for how many yards an offensive player might have, how many touchdowns individual players will score, or even things like which team will win the coin-toss or whether the coin will land on heads or tails.

For the most part, prop bets are listed like Over/Under totals or yes/or questions, such as “Will Player X rush for Over/Under 79.5 yards”, or “Will Player Z throw an interception?”

Parlay Wagers

The Oxford Dictionary defines “parlay” as “a cumulative series of bets in which winnings accruing from each transaction are used as a stake for a further bet.”

In other words, a parlay wager is betting and on 2 or more game outcomes on the same ticket. Each addition team added to the parlay makes the payout increase. To win a parlay bet, all the picks must win.

The odds are heavily against the bettor on parlay bets on two different fronts, the true odds and the odds paid. For example, the true odds of hitting a 10-team parlay are 1023-1, but the odds paid at most sportsbooks are 720-1.

Many bettors use parlay bets to stack moneyline bets for games they feel most strongly about. If the bettor picks an underdog on the moneyline, the expected payout can increase dramatically, along with the bettor’s chance of losing the bet.

Betting on the Future

One wagering option, known as Futures, allows the bettor to bet on a long-running result instead of betting a single-game outcome. There are several preseason futures bets available before the NFL season begins, and there are some futures bets that run during the season, with the odds changing week by week.

Before the season begins, a bettor has the option to place future wagers on win/loss records, conference champs, offensive player of the year, defensive player of the year, even the Super Bowl champ!

For example, in 2021 a $100 futures wager on the Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl would have netted the bettor $1,200.

There are many factors to consider when deciding which teams to wager on, such as injuries, weather, trends, rivalry games, etc. There are many ways to wager, just make sure you have the right information about the games you are betting on.

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