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Duke vs. Vermont expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament first-round game

Duke vs. Vermont expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament first-round game

Duke and Vermont are from opposite ends of the college basketball spectrum. While Vermont has an upset on its NCAA Tournament resume and has been a powerhouse in the America East, Duke is one of the blue bloods of the sport. When the two teams meet on Friday, the Blue Devils are double-digit favorites.

Will No. 4 seed Duke advance to the second round or will No. 13 Vermont hand Jon Scheyer another first weekend tourney exit?

Duke

Strengths: Duke has weapons. Kyle Filipowski is one of the best frontcourt players in the country and is versatile in how he can score. Freshman Jared McCain can take over a game, Jeremy Roach is an experienced guard capable of going for 20 and even Tyrese Proctor — who has been disappointing — is more than capable. Then add Mark Mitchell as a glue guy who defends, rebounds and can score when necessary. There aren’t too many teams capable of matching this starting group, especially talent-wise.

Weaknesses: The Blue Devils just don’t have a big-time defensive presence in the middle, as was the case a year ago with Dereck Lively II, and it makes them suspect when it comes to rim protection. Teams will go at Filipowski — who can be exposed on that end of the court. Proctor has also been ordinary for much of the season when the hope was he would turn into an All-American candidate.

Outlook: There aren’t many teams in the country that can match Duke’s overall talent and experience. Jon Scheyer has a couple of likely first-round picks in Filipowski and Proctor, and McCain has shown he can carry the team if necessary from a scoring standpoint. Roach is a veteran capable of making big shots, and Mitchell has had his moments.

—Jeff Goodman

Vermont

Outlook: The Catamounts have won eight straight America East regular-season titles. This is the 10th time in the last 20 NCAA Tournaments that they’ve gotten a bid — but they haven’t won a game in the tourney since T.J. Sorrentine hit that one from the parking lot.

This Vermont team is built on defense. Vermont ranks near the top 60 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, and the Catamounts were to the America East what Houston is to everyone else. They are incredible at controlling tempo. They’ll make you play at their pace. They’ll make it tough for you to run offense. They’ll get on the defensive glass and end possessions. They’ve done it all year, but the question is whether or not that will work against teams that are significantly bigger and more athletic.

The other key is going to be their backcourt trio of TJ Long, Shamir Bogues and Aaron Deloney. Those three are UVM’s three leading scorers, but most of the offense that Vermont creates comes out of sets. If those sets get blown up, that trio is going to be tasked with creating against a power-conference defense. If they can win those matchups often enough, they can pull off an upset.

—Rob Dauster


What: South Region, First Round

Tipoff time: 7:10 p.m. ET Friday

TV: CBS

Location: Brooklyn

Duke vs. Vermont odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.

Expert picks

Model projection: Duke by 8.5, total 132.5

See Austin Mock’s best futures bets

Players to watch

Duke

  • Kyle Filipowski, sophomore center, first-team All-ACC
  • Jeremy Roach, senior guard, third-team All-ACC

Vermont

  • Shamir Bogues, junior guard, first-team All-America East, All-America East defensive team
  • Aaron Deloney, graduate guard, second-team All-America East

More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage

(Photo of Tyrese Proctor and Kyle Filipowski: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)





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