Growing up as the son of a pastor, switching schools and moving was part of the deal. I moved in fourth grade, transferred from a small Christian school to a decent-sized public one, moved again at 17, and went alone to college, knowing nobody.
Trade deadlines hit different for The Educator.
Imagine uprooting your life for a temporary time, going to a new organization with new coaches, new teammates, new signs, not knowing your way around, etc. This is why I’m never huge on guys acquired at deadlines. Having done this process several times, it’s terribly discombobulating.
Now imagine being in your free agent year, having a great season, then being dealt to the worst hitting environment in baseball.
Welcome to Josh Naylor’s world.
He’s off to Seattle, the land where Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez lose 30 HR power only to regain it when they land elsewhere. Even Hall of Fame 3B Adrian Beltre maxed out at a 110 WRC+ in his time there. Naylor is a huge candidate to fall off.
Our Player Rater projects him to finish ninth for the rest of the season. That’s too high. Read into context, Rater! He’s not going to produce HR at the same rate, or anything else for that matter. There’s no good here for a Naylor owner.
The deadline is on Thursday for trades, so keep reading this site to be posted on the moves and their ramifications.
Free Bathroom Passes
Ah, a great reward! You can pee to your heart’s delight, only have to pick the toilet that the vapes aren’t flushed in.
Nick Kurtz, well, gotta confess something. I’m old. In this case, not the wise, seen-it-all, and applied type. No, this time I was the stodgy old timer who’s stuck in his ways.
Nick Kurtz has a high strikeout rate. But that doesn’t mean he isn’t good, even this year. Here are some more stats and context for how good this guy has been in his first full professional season.
Still walking at ten percent of his at bats, cromulent stuff. Right there with Michael Busch and Jonathan Aranda.
ISO (Slg minus avg) .374, and look, well, this is the highest in the league! That’s good, right? The second highest is Aaron Judge.
WRC+ is 184, fifth highest in the league, ahead of guys like Kyle Tucker and Juan Soto
Even the strikeouts, while high, are around Riley Greene, James Wood, and Kyle Schwarber
The question shouldn’t have been this season. That’s a given, you have to keep him, the question now is where does he go next season in drafts?
The next big thing is here.
Andrew Vaughn had a lot in common with Kurtz coming up, and I was all over the guy three years ago. Well, he’s finally fulfilling his pedigree after moving to Milwaukee. A brief stint in the minors, a couple tweaks, and in 41 at bats, he’s slashing .341/.417/.659. Yes, small sample size. I think it’s real. Progression isn’t linear?
Went to Statcast and filtered just his Milwaukee numbers, but didn’t find them useful. Shockingly, a player on a hot streak had good underlying numbers. So went to the season-long ones. Here’s his expected stats: .275 batting average with .495 slugging. .350 OBP. These numbers, if he hit home runs at the same rate, that’s a top 5 first baseman. He doesn’t walk a ton, but he doesn’t strike out a ton either (20% K rate).
You have to add him, right? Can I keep getting burned by this guy? Well, the numbers are the numbers. That’s like the entire point of the game. Go ahead. Get him.
Nurse’s Office: many injuries,
Austin Riley has returned from a back issue.
Alec Bohm: rib issue, second time with fractured rib diagnosed. Could be a bit
Jake Burger: quad issue, needs rehab but is hitting in the cage and that’s all he’s good for anyway
Brandon Lowe: plantar fasciitis. Big bummer. It hurts bad bad.
Isaac Paredes: Hamstring termed “significant.” Like effectively done for the season.
I was hoping for more deadline deals, but it turns out the deadline is Thursday, not Tuesday like I thought for some reason. Have a great week!
Also, wait, RIP Ryne Sandberg! It’s not hyperbole to say I would not be a baseball fan, or at least the same level, if it weren’t for him. Miss him already.
